“We minimize FY26-28E EPS by 8-15% on decrease volumes and margins for JLR and India PVs. We anticipate a 19% EPS decline in FY26E, adopted by simply 8% CAGR over FY26-28E. Our FY27-28 EPS estimates are 12-21% under Road. We see a number of above-mentioned challenges throughout enterprise; and we’re unconvinced in regards to the Iveco acquisition (A Dangerous Detour). TTMT inventory has lagged Nifty-50 by 21% since Jan (Downgrade to UNPF), and we retain UNPF with a revised Rs 550 PT (earlier Rs 600). We want MM & TVSL in autos,” based on a report by the brokerage.
The share worth of Tata Motors surged by 3% to day’s excessive of Rs 653 on BSE on Monday in opposition to a earlier shut of Rs 633.
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The report talked about that fall in Q1 EBITDA under JEFe was led by decrease margins in JLR and India PVs. JLR wholesales fell 11% YoY with decrease gross sales throughout the US (tariff impression), UK, and Europe.
India PV volumes fell 10% YoY, and EBITDA declined 37% YoY as margin fell to 4.0% (14-qtr low). India CV volumes additionally fell 6% YoY, however EBITDA was flat YoY as margin rose 60bp YoY to 12.2%, the Jefferies report mentioned.
On the rising headwinds at JLR, the worldwide brokerage mentioned whereas the US commerce offers with UK/EU at 10-15% tariffs convey some reduction, we consider JLR will proceed to face extreme enterprise pressures attributable to rising competitors and extra 10% consumption tax in China, excessive buyer acquisition value & guarantee bills, and BEV transition, whereas its key fashions (RR, RR Sport and Defender) are actually 2-4 years previous.
After a robust 45% CAGR over FY21-23, truck business wholesales have been flat in FY24 and fell 4% YoY in FY25/1QFY26; we anticipate a modest 3% CAGR over FY25-28E, the report mentioned.
On the long-term view, the Jefferies report mentioned that JLR is going through pressures together with elevated competitors and tariffs in China, greater guarantee prices and BEV transition, whereas its key fashions are beginning to age, In India, TTMT’s PV market share is slipping, and CV demand is weak, and we’re unconvinced on Iveco acquisition too.
The corporate reported a steep 63% year-on-year (YoY) decline in consolidated web revenue for the June quarter (Q1FY26). For the quarter ended June 2025, Tata Motors’ consolidated web revenue fell to Rs 3,924 crore from Rs 10,514 crore in the identical interval final 12 months.
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The corporate’s complete income from operations stood at Rs 1.04 lakh crore, marginally down 0.3% from Rs 1.07 lakh crore recorded within the corresponding quarter of the earlier monetary 12 months.
The corporate attributed the moderation in efficiency to a difficult demand atmosphere and said it’ll give attention to strengthening its enterprise fundamentals. Measures outlined embody mitigating tariff impacts via model leverage, enhancing product combine, and implementing focused actions to reinforce contribution margins.
Within the present calendar 12 months to date, the shares of Tata Motors have fallen by 13% and within the final one 12 months have gone down by 39.98%.
