On Friday, the Nifty 50 fell 0.95% to 24,363.30, whereas the Sensex declined 0.95% to shut at 79,857.79. For the week, they shed 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively. The continued decline displays persistent promoting stress throughout sectors, with little signal of reduction amid deteriorating world commerce relations and muted home efficiency.
Tariff shock hits exporters
Export-oriented shares led the rout after U.S. President Donald Trump introduced a pointy escalation in commerce tensions, doubling tariffs on Indian exports to 50%. The transfer, retaliation for India’s continued oil commerce with Russia, delivered a contemporary blow to investor confidence.
Morgan Stanley warned the Indian seafood export trade alone might face a possible lack of Rs 24,000 crore. “Indian textile and attire exporters are halting US order manufacturing on account of President Trump’s tariff doubling to 50%, severely impacting their competitiveness towards nations like Bangladesh and Vietnam,” the brokerage stated, forecasting “export decline, job losses, and general uncertainty within the sector.”
Past textiles and seafood, exporters in gems and jewelry, chemical compounds, and auto ancillaries at the moment are grappling with halted orders and squeezed margins.
FIIs dump Indian shares
The selloff intensified as international institutional buyers (FIIs) remained internet sellers for the tenth straight session. On August 7 alone, FIIs pulled Rs 4,997.19 crore from Indian equities, taking August’s complete outflows to over Rs 15,950 crore. Since July, the exodus has crossed $4 billion.“FIIs have offered on all buying and selling days of August, thus far,” stated Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Funding Strategist at Geojit Monetary Companies. “These weak indicators, together with the comparatively excessive valuations in India, are triggering sustained promoting by the FIIs.”Vijayakumar stated, “Within the current context of damaging sentiments available in the market brought on by the tariff skirmishes between India and the U.S., FIIs are more likely to proceed promoting within the money market.” Nevertheless, he famous that “the one saving grace is the sustained DII shopping for which stays robust. The robust DII shopping for assisted by sustained flows into mutual funds can stop a crash available in the market.”
Technical indicators level to extra weak spot
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Analysis at SBI Securities, famous that the Nifty has shaped a bearish candle with an extended higher shadow for 4 consecutive weeks—“signaling that each try at a rally is being met with robust promoting stress, indicating a scarcity of conviction amongst bulls and a transparent dominance of bears at increased ranges.”
Shah stated that the Nifty is now buying and selling under its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day EMAs, all sloping downward, and its RSI has entered a “tremendous bearish zone.” He stated the MACD indicator additionally stays in bearish territory, with the MACD line under each the sign and 0 strains.
“Essential help lies within the 24,200–24,150 zone, the place the 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ranges coincide,” Shah stated. “If the index slips under 24,150, it might lengthen its decline to 23,750. On the upside, the 100-day EMA zone of 24,570–24,600 will act as an important hurdle.”
Banking sector presents little respite
The banking index mirrored broader market weak spot. “The banking benchmark index Financial institution Nifty additionally ended the week on a damaging word… On the weekly chart, it shaped a bearish candle, indicating persistent promoting stress,” Shah stated.
The index hovered close to its 100-day EMA, with help seen at 54,950–54,850. “A sustained transfer under 54,850 might intensify the downtrend towards 54,000–53,900,” he warned. Resistance on the upside stands at 55,700–55,800.
Muted Q1 earnings add to gloom
Company earnings provided little cowl. The Nifty IT index is down 10% over the previous month, and the banking sector has proven little momentum. An Financial Occasions evaluation revealed that India’s high 9 non-public banks posted solely 2.7% year-on-year revenue progress in Q1, reflecting weak credit score urge for food and sluggish macro momentum.
“There aren’t any indications but of a pointy uptick in earnings for FY26,” Vijayakumar stated, including that the market stays each “technically and essentially weak.”
With international promoting unrelenting, world macro dangers mounting, and Q1 outcomes underwhelming, buyers could have to brace for continued volatility. Until commerce tensions ease or earnings ship a shock turnaround, the trail forward for Indian equities stays fraught with danger.
Additionally learn | Why the inventory market fell immediately: Trump’s 50% tariffs on India amongst 5 elements behind Sensex’s slide of 765 pts, Nifty dips under 24,400
(Disclaimer: Suggestions, ideas, views and opinions given by the specialists are their very own. These don’t symbolize the views of the Financial Occasions)
