US President Donald Trump delivers remarks on the “Successful the AI Race” AI Summit on the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium in Washington, DC, on July 23, 2025.
Andrew Caballero-reynolds | Afp | Getty Photos
Brussels is getting ready for a no-deal state of affairs as uncertainty persists about if and when a commerce settlement between the European Union and U.S. will materialize.
Lawmakers on Thursday signed off on a serious bundle of counter-tariffs which might goal a variety of products and discussions are reportedly ongoing about deploying the EU’s so-called “commerce bazooka.”
Measures might kick in quickly as there are only a few days left earlier than Aug. 1, after which EU imports to the U.S. are set to be slapped with 30% tariffs and the EU is anticipated to reply promptly.
Talks of a possible deal have nonetheless additionally been heating up this week, with sources telling CNBC that the present base-case state of affairs for a deal features a 15% tariff on EU imports to the U.S. Any potential exemptions are nonetheless being labored out, they famous.
However crucially, a lot relies on U.S. President Donald Trump, who is thought for final minute modifications of coronary heart and fast determination making. There are due to this fact no ensures about what a possible deal might seem like.
On Friday, Trump informed reporters that there was solely a “50-50” probability of a deal between the U.S. and EU.
“I might say that we’ve a 50-50 probability, possibly lower than that, however a 50-50 probability of creating a cope with the EU,” mentioned Trump.
Retaliatory tariffs
This week the European Fee mixed two packages of proposed duties into one checklist, which totals tariffs on 93 billion euros ($109 billion) of a variety of products from food and drinks gadgets to clothes and equipment.
A supply informed CNBC earlier this week that tariffs could possibly be as excessive as 30%, mirroring these from the U.S.
EU member states reportedly on Thursday voted to approve the mixed checklist. The measures are set to return into impact simply days after the U.S.’ Aug. 1 deadline.
Carsten Brzeski, international head of macro at ING, informed CNBC on Friday that he expects tariff-level retaliation from the EU within the absence of a deal.
“In a non-deal state of affairs with out one other delay of US tariffs, I see the EU going for a tit-for-tat method, ie imposing 30% tariffs on chosen US items, not but all items, just like the well-known bikes, automobiles, clothes and alcohol,” he mentioned in emailed feedback.
“On condition that European nations will not be absolutely aligned on learn how to react, I can not see the EU going full in however reasonably looking for a steadiness between displaying that it reacts however with out going past the US measures,” Brzeski added.
The ‘commerce bazooka’
One other broadly mentioned choice is the EU’s so-called anti-coercion instrument, which has been known as a “commerce bazooka.”
The measure is designed to be a deterrent, with the European Fee saying it might “be most profitable if there isn’t any want to make use of it.” But when a 3rd nation does have interaction in coercion, “the instrument permits the Union to formally establish situations of financial coercion and to reply.”
The bloc views financial coercion as interference from non-EU nations within the area’s insurance policies by threatening or imposing measures that impression commerce and funding.
Whereas the European Fee notes that dialogue and engagement could be a part of their response to such coercion, the ACI for instance, additionally permits for import and export curbs and restrictions on accessing the EU’s market.
The EU could possibly impose export restrictions no matter whether or not it deploys its anti-coercion instrument, mentioned ING’s Brzeski.
Alberto Rizzi, coverage fellow on the European Council on Overseas Relations, informed CNBC on Friday that although the ACI is taken into account the ‘nuclear choice,’ “in actuality there may be room for flexibility in its utility, so long as the retaliatory measures stay proportionate to the hurt of the coercion.”
Rizzi recommended that regardless of the temper throughout the EU shifting to grow to be extra confrontational and supportive of “swift and substantial” retaliation in a no-deal state of affairs, it’s unsure when the ACI could possibly be activated.
“Retaliation is seen as a negotiating software by the EU, so the ACI will most likely be activated solely in a second part if there isn’t any response by the US after the tariff packages enters into power — the EU would need to maintain it as leverage reasonably than utilizing it instantly,” he mentioned.
— CNBC’s Silvia Amaro contributed to this story.
