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Jordan Reid
Positive, there are greater than 9 months till the 2026 NFL draft begins in Pittsburgh, however it’s by no means too early to debate the No. 1 decide. And there is a lot to speak about.
Final 12 months’s journey to No. 1 noticed quarterback Cam Ward flip from a sleeper prospect to the unquestioned high quarterback within the 2025 draft. Will we see one other QB come out of (virtually) nowhere to be the primary decide? Will one of many high quarterbacks under get it? Will Arch Manning explode at Texas and be part of his uncles as a No. 1 total decide? Or will a non-quarterback get the highest spot for the primary time since 2022?
I picked 14 gamers who could possibly be that high decide in Pittsburgh, including proportion odds for every participant. I am beginning with one in every of my favourite quarterbacks on this class, however do not overlook these at 1%. That is the place Ward was slated this time final 12 months.
Soar to a tier:
Severe contenders (4)
Potential risers (3)
Lengthy photographs (7)
Severe contenders
Predicted probability of going No. 1: 15%
Why he could possibly be the highest decide: NFL groups continually fall in love with traits on the high of the draft, and Sellers has a number of the finest traits within the class. The 6-foot-3, 242-pound dual-threat quarterback cannot solely beat defenses along with his highly effective arm (2,534 passing yards and 18 touchdowns to seven interceptions as a 19-year-old redshirt freshman) but in addition along with his legs (674 dashing yards and 7 touchdowns).
Sellers confirmed drastic enchancment as a first-year starter, serving to the Gamecocks win six of their last seven video games final season. His 65.6% completion proportion was additionally encouraging contemplating his inexperience and factors to additional enchancment in 2025.
He typically throws passes which can be too scorching to deal with and holds the ball too lengthy within the pocket — his 3.06-second common time to throw was the eleventh slowest nationally in 2024. He’ll additionally want to enhance his ball safety, as he fumbled 11 instances (misplaced six) final season. But when Sellers can fine-tune this stuff and proceed his development, he has the instruments to be the highest decide within the 2026 draft.
Predicted probability of going No. 1: 15%
Why he could possibly be the highest decide: I had Klubnik because the No. 1 decide in my Means-too-Early mock draft in Could and really feel he can reap the benefits of arguably essentially the most proficient roster within the nation. He wasn’t on many draft radars after a disappointing sophomore season in 2023, however Klubnik made a significant leap as a junior, ending with 3,639 passing yards, 36 touchdowns and solely six interceptions. He ended the season with a flourish, throwing for 336 yards and three touchdowns within the School Soccer Playoff first spherical towards Texas.
Klubnik is not huge (6-foot-2, 210 kilos), however he performs with a robust platform and progresses via reads shortly. Irrespective of how muddy the pocket will get, he is capable of make robust throws as a result of his steadiness, rhythm and repeatable mechanics. There may be debate about his arm energy amongst NFL evaluators, although.
“I believe he has sufficient to be a tremendous starter on the following degree, however his setup will all the time should be close to good to get the perfect out of him,” an AFC govt from a QB-needy group mentioned this summer season.
Klubnik is about as much as make one other leap, as Clemson returns its high three receivers (Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore). He’ll have an opportunity to make an enormous impression early this season when the Tigers play LSU in Week 1.
Predicted probability of going No. 1: 15%
Why he could possibly be the highest decide: Allar is a toolsy passer who took a significant leap in 2024 beneath new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, enhancing his completion proportion from 59.9% in 2023 to 66.5%. He has the scale (6-foot-5, 238 kilos) and robust arm that scouts want and confirmed extra confidence in these bodily traits. He is not shy about utilizing his arm energy to check tight home windows and has good mobility for his dimension.
Regardless of Allar’s progress final season, many scouts really feel he nonetheless must work on his ball placement. He’ll be examined this season, as Penn State misplaced first-round tight finish Tyler Warren and has a number of new receivers that Allar should get acclimated to.
Evaluators additionally wish to see Allar carry out higher in huge video games, one thing he is struggled with in his two seasons as a starter. Video games towards Oregon (Sept. 27) and Ohio State (Nov. 1) are paramount. If he can play extra like he did towards Oregon within the Large Ten championship sport final season (280 mixed yards and 4 touchdowns) and fewer like he did towards Notre Dame within the CFP semifinals (12-for-23, 135 yards and a backbreaking late interception), Allar could possibly be a top-10 decide … or larger.
Predicted probability of going No. 1: 15%
Why he could possibly be the highest decide: Nussmeier carried out nicely final season in succeeding 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, throwing for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. Nussmeier is a fearless passer who produces highlights along with his uncanny means to see huge performs and throw his receivers open.
The 6-2, 200-pounder’s arm is extra versatile than highly effective, however his nice pocket imaginative and prescient and anticipation on throws to intermediate and deep areas of the fields stand out. He does not take many sacks (his 2.9% sack proportion was twelfth lowest within the FBS), however could be reckless and put the ball in hurt’s approach — particularly after breaking the pocket. This confirmed towards ranked groups, as he had three video games of two or extra interceptions towards these opponents.
Whereas Nussmeier’s aggressiveness can work towards him, he has the smarts, accuracy and anticipation to be a high decide within the draft. Scouts will wish to see extra consistency and the way he adjusts to a brand new set of receivers out of the switch portal. He’ll be examined instantly towards Clemson in Week 1.
Potential risers
Predicted probability of going No. 1: 12%
Why he could possibly be the highest decide: Mendoza transferred from Cal to Indiana, the place he enters a quarterback-friendly offense. Kurtis Rourke transitioned from the MAC to Curt Cignetti’s offense and was drafted within the seventh spherical of this previous draft. The ceiling for the 6-foot-5, 225-pound Mendoza is even larger.
“I actually preferred Mendoza’s tape,” an NFC space scout mentioned. “He is the one to circle that could possibly be an even bigger riser, and Cignetti has a terrific observe report with switch QBs.”
Mendoza threw for 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns with six interceptions and blends a robust arm with plus mobility for his dimension. He can stand and ship within the pocket with ease and is extraordinarily correct — his 5.1% off-target proportion final season was the perfect within the FBS. He additionally excelled throwing exterior of the pocket, with a 91.1 QBR. Typically he’ll break the pocket prematurely as a substitute of permitting ideas to totally develop, so scouts want to see him be extra affected person in these conditions.
Predicted probability of going No. 1: 10%
Why he could possibly be the highest decide: Whereas quarterbacks are most frequently chosen with the No. 1 total decide, edge rushers seize the highest spot often. Travon Walker was the latest instance in 2022. The 6-3, 265-pound Parker is the almost definitely non-quarterback to be chosen first, combining a superb first step with robust fingers to disengage on the level of assault.
These fingers assist him win by overpowering blockers, and he completed his sophomore season with 11 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss, second-most within the FBS amongst defensive linemen. He has additionally been a turnover creator, forcing 4 fumbles final season (additionally second within the FBS) and stands out in a loaded Clemson defensive entrance.
“I do know [defensive tackle Peter] Woods will get loads of the love, however Parker is the one which could possibly be drafted first off of that protection this 12 months,” an AFC assistant informed me this summer season.
Predicted probability of going No. 1: 5%
Why he could possibly be the highest decide: There’s loads of projection right here, as Manning has solely two begins and 95 passing makes an attempt in his school profession. Due to that, I do not consider Manning shall be within the 2026 draft. However he has traits that would make him an intriguing possibility atop the draft if he has an enormous season.
The glimpses we noticed final season have been promising, as he threw for 939 yards, 9 touchdowns and two interceptions whereas dashing for 106 yards and 4 scores. At 6-4, 222 kilos, Manning has the body scouts covet and makes use of it successfully. He has a picture-perfect base and clean supply, and his dual-threat functionality forces defenses to account for his working.
There may be a lot for Manning to work on. He should change into higher at progressing previous his first learn, as his tendency to stay to it results in unhealthy choices and compelled throws. He additionally wants to make use of his mobility extra and be extra prepared to scramble on dropbacks. That is why I count on him to stay with Texas coach Steve Sarkisian, among the best quarterback builders within the nation, and never rush to the NFL.
Lengthy photographs
The ‘out-of-nowhere’ quarterback
Since Joe Burrow‘s magical 2019 season catapulted him to the highest within the 2020 draft, it has been widespread for under-the-radar quarterbacks to shoot up draft boards excessive into Spherical 1. Ward was one in every of 4 quarterbacks we recognized on this part a 12 months in the past. This time round, there are two passers with Day 3 grades who may shortly rise.
John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma (2%): Mateer arrives at OU with excessive expectations after ending with 3,139 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and 7 interceptions at Washington State in 2024. He is probably the most aggressive and assured passers I’ve studied on tape on this class and makes downfield throws with ease. Mateer can also be cell, working for 826 yards and 15 touchdowns final season. If he thrives towards a schedule that has a Week 2 matchup with Michigan plus eight SEC video games, his inventory will rise.
Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State (2%): Cam Skattebo bought many of the consideration throughout Arizona State’s large turnaround final season, however Leavitt additionally performed an enormous half, passing for two,885 yards, 24 touchdowns and 6 interceptions after transferring from Michigan State. He’s a relaxed passer who can unfold and shred defenses. With Skattebo off to the NFL, Leavitt would be the focus of the Solar Devils’ bid to repeat as Large 12 champions.
Predicted probability of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could possibly be the highest decide: Woods is presently the top-ranked participant on my board, and the 6-3, 315-pounder is the catalyst of one of many nation’s finest defenses. However it’s been 31 years since a defensive deal with was taken with the highest decide (Dan Wilkinson, 1994) and 6 years since an inside defensive lineman was picked within the high 5 (Quinnen Williams, 2019).
Woods performed quite a bit off the sting final season however stayed disruptive as a run defender. He had solely three sacks final season as a sophomore, however his explosive energy allowed him to penetrate the backfield as a cross rusher. He’ll get extra snaps inside this season as a 3-technique beneath new defensive coordinator Tom Allen. If he can convert extra cross rushes into sacks, Woods could possibly be a top-five decide come April.
Predicted probability of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could possibly be the highest decide: Fano was essentially the most constant blocker on tape in 2024, which is why he is my top-rated offensive deal with. The 6-3, 302-pounder wants so as to add weight, however he has the quickness and fluidity to matchup with speedy edge rushers and the facility to bury defenders in run blocking.
Fano can also be versatile, transitioning to proper deal with as a sophomore in 2024 and permitting just one sack after taking part in left deal with the season earlier than. If he can pack on kilos and preserve his degree of depth and lower-half suddenness, he could possibly be the primary deal with picked in a deep class of prospects.
Predicted probability of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could possibly be the highest decide: Proctor has the scale (6-7, 360 kilos) to go very excessive within the draft, and his finest tape is one in every of a top-10 decide. However he is a polarizing prospect due to his inconsistent play.
At his finest, he has the facility and pop in his fingers to shortly overwhelm rushers on the level of assault. He is forceful within the run sport and generates motion with ease. His cross safety is the place he wants enchancment, as there are cold and warm spurts in Proctor’s play. Scouts wish to see him play to his potential extra as a cross blocker. If he does, he could possibly be the primary blocker off the board.
Predicted probability of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could possibly be the highest decide: World is the final word wild card on this train, because the 6-8, 312-pound deal with is stepping up in competitors after transferring from Nevada this offseason. However his traits are excellent. World is an above-average athlete and has foot quickness that’s among the many better of any blocker within the 2026 class.
Scouts wish to see him put all his traits collectively. Although World did not permit a sack final season, he drew eight penalties (5 for holding, three for unsportsmanlike conduct). He should cut back the penalties whereas dealing with the bump up in competitors. If he can mix his fast ft along with his lower-half suddenness and flashes within the run sport, World shall be a participant to look at early in Spherical 1.
Predicted probability of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could possibly be the highest decide: Because the widespread draft period began in 1967, there hasn’t been a security drafted with the No. 1 decide. That is a pattern that is more likely to proceed, however it says quite a bit that Downs is considerably within the dialog.
The 6-foot, 205-pounder transferred from Alabama — the place he was stellar as a freshman in 2023 — to Ohio State final 12 months, serving to the Buckeyes to a nationwide championship. He had 77 tackles final season and is a wrap-up-and-finish tackler towards the run. He additionally excels in protection, permitting solely 28.6% of passes to be accomplished in his protection (fifth-best within the FBS). Downs additionally has two landing returns in his profession.
