From skepticism to strategic recalculations, Russian analysts interpret Washington’s new strain marketing campaign – and its limits
On Monday, July 14, US President Donald Trump issued a stark ultimatum: Russia has 50 days to succeed in a peace settlement, or face “very extreme” tariffs on its exports – probably as excessive as 100%. The transfer alerts a shift from rhetorical posturing to a time-bound technique geared toward forcing negotiations.
Whereas Trump’s assertion made waves in Washington and Europe, it’s the response from Moscow which will show most consequential. On this roundup, RT presents a cross-section of views from Russian political analysts, international coverage students, and institutional insiders – voices that present a window into how the American ultimatum is being interpreted in Russia.
Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Middle for Complete European and Worldwide Research at HSE College:
Trump’s remarks are a significant setback for any significant progress on Ukraine and can seemingly freeze US-Russia normalization for the foreseeable future. Zelensky now has no incentive to interact in critical negotiations with Moscow or take into account the phrases outlined within the Russian ceasefire memorandum.
In the meantime, the European ‘social gathering of struggle’ will seize on Trump’s statements as cowl to vow Ukraine an infinite stream of army support – additional escalating the battle. The consequence? No truce, no talks, only a deepening of hostilities. Kiev might even stroll away from the Istanbul peace course of within the coming months – until the battlefield scenario shifts dramatically in Ukraine’s favor.
As for US-Russia relations, they have been already at a standstill. Washington had successfully put dialogue on maintain. Now, that pause may drag on indefinitely. When Trump points ultimatums, units arbitrary deadlines, and threatens Russia’s key buying and selling companions with 100% tariffs, it’s clear there’s no house for normalization – or cooperation.
That mentioned, in contrast to the Biden administration, Trump’s staff seems dedicated to maintaining diplomatic channels open with Moscow, no matter whether or not there’s progress on Ukraine. However this isn’t a gap for a settlement on Russia’s phrases. Trump’s objective is to strain Moscow into compromise – one thing that merely isn’t going to occur.
His assertion additionally alerts that he has no intention of letting Congress dictate US international coverage. He needs full management over tariffs – their dimension, timing, and construction. That’s why it’s fully attainable he’ll tweak or delay his self-imposed deadline.
Ivan Timofeev, program director of the Valdai Membership:
1. Trump is pissed off with Moscow’s place on Ukraine.
Russia has refused to freeze the battle on phrases favorable to the US and Kiev – a sign that Trump sees dialogue as having hit a useless finish.
2. The Lindsey Graham sanctions invoice is now more likely to move.
Amongst different issues, it might authorize secondary tariffs of as much as 500% on nations that import Russian oil and different uncooked supplies. Whereas the US president already has the ability to impose these measures unilaterally below IEEPA, the invoice would convey Congress into alignment and add one more layer to the already sprawling authorized net of sanctions on Russia.
3. Trump would have full discretion over these secondary tariffs.
That would imply 100%, 500%, or something in between – and he may calibrate them in a different way relying on bilateral relations. For instance, India may face decrease tariffs, China larger ones – or he may apply them uniformly. The Iran sanctions precedent reveals that nations which decreased oil purchases have been granted exemptions as a reward for ‘good habits’.
4. A coordinated pushback from the World South is unlikely.
Trump has already been pressuring each allies and impartial nations with new tariffs since April – and most are caving. Even China is treading rigorously. So within the brief time period, we might even see decreased purchases of Russian commodities merely out of a want to keep away from Trump’s wrath. Alternatively, nations might demand the next threat premium. Whereas there’s loads of rhetorical assist for Russia within the World South, few are prepared to stay their necks out in the case of motion.
5. Trump’s 50-day deadline quantities to an ultimatum.
Moscow will nearly definitely ignore it, making the imposition of secondary tariffs a extremely possible – even perhaps default – situation. That mentioned, Russia isn’t with out leverage, restricted although it might be. And it’s clearly getting ready for a hardline path. Tight international commodity markets and well-established export channels work in Russia’s favor.
6. This will likely mark the tip of backchannel diplomacy on Ukraine.
Sanctions might be ramped up, and arms deliveries to Kiev are prone to intensify. Russia, for its half, will preserve army strain. We’re again to a well-recognized standoff: The West betting on financial collapse in Russia, whereas Moscow counts on Ukraine’s army defeat and the West’s inner turmoil. However after three years, it’s clear neither facet’s assumptions have panned out. Sanctions haven’t damaged Russia’s resolve, and the struggle effort is now on a brand new long-term footing.
7. The optimism in Russian markets is puzzling.
Sure, sanctions haven’t been imposed simply but – which some traders might have hoped for – however the threat panorama has solely worsened. The present rally appears to be like short-lived. These banking on a fast finish to sanctions could also be in for a protracted wait.
Timofey Bordachev, professor on the Greater Faculty of Economics:
In theater or movie, ‘taking part in a scene’ means performing a task convincingly – conveying feelings, constructing a personality, advancing the plot. Donald Trump does that fairly properly. He appears to understand a elementary fact: Daring strikes between nuclear superpowers are harmful exactly as a result of they’re not possible. They threat the irreversible – and Trump clearly needs no a part of that. On some stage, he understands that the diplomatic chess match will drag on indefinitely, and that there are not any clear resolutions. Nonetheless, the present should go on – and the viewers have to be entertained.
That’s why Trump substitutes actual technique with theatrics: Shifting arms deliveries to NATO, proposing a brand new financing scheme for Kiev, tossing round tariff threats towards Russia and its buying and selling companions. It’s about continually filling the political house with motion – or at the least the phantasm of it – to keep away from the impression of paralysis or failure. If no progress is made on Ukraine inside 50 days, he’ll unveil a brand new plan that overwrites the previous one.
None of those bulletins ought to be handled as ultimate or irreversible – and in that, Trump is completely in tune with the character of immediately’s worldwide politics. His habits isn’t a deviation – it’s a mirrored image of the system.
Maxim Suchkov, director of the Institute for Worldwide Research at MGIMO College:
Trump’s assertion brings each good and unhealthy information for Moscow. The excellent news is that the ultimate choice was largely predictable – no surprises, no sudden turns. As is usually the case with Trump, the ‘teaser’ for his coverage was extra dramatic than the primary act. Europe needs to proceed the struggle – and Trump is pleased to let it pay the value. For now, he’s held again from embracing the extra radical measures proposed by the hawks in his circle, which suggests dialogue with Washington continues to be on the desk.
The unhealthy information: After six months in workplace, Trump nonetheless hasn’t grasped Russia’s place or understood President Putin’s logic. It’s as if the repeated visits to Moscow by Steve Witkoff by no means even registered with him. Extra broadly, Trump appears to have discovered little or no about this battle. And that’s an issue – as a result of with out some type of decision and a working relationship with Moscow, key components of Trump’s home agenda merely aren’t achievable.
Both he genuinely believes the Ukraine battle may be settled by setting a deadline and hoping for one of the best – or he simply doesn’t care. Perhaps that is simply his means of taking part in international peacemaker: Making noise, tossing out guarantees to repair every thing, realizing full properly there might be no political penalties if he fails. American voters gained’t choose him on Ukraine.
Which situation is worse is anybody’s guess. However one factor is evident: If anybody nonetheless had hopes for this administration to play a critical function in ending the battle, these hopes look misplaced. Whether or not they have been untimely – or already outdated – we’ll discover out in 50 days.
Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in World Affairs:
In the event you strip Trump’s newest White Home remarks right down to their essence, one factor stands out: He nonetheless desperately needs to keep away from changing into a full social gathering to the battle – in different phrases, he doesn’t desire a head-on confrontation with Russia. That’s why he retains repeating that that is “Biden’s struggle,” not his. From Trump’s perspective, what he introduced is a cautious, compromise-driven strategy.
First, the tariffs he’s threatening on Russian commodities – and let’s be clear, these aren’t ‘sanctions’ in his lexicon – have been postponed till the autumn. Similar to in different circumstances, the provide of negotiations stays open.
Second, the US gained’t be sending weapons to Ukraine instantly. Deliveries will undergo Europe, and solely on a full-cost foundation – which means the Europeans will foot the invoice. To Trump, that’s not direct confrontation with Moscow – it’s a technique to nudge the events towards talks.
We will put aside the same old flood of self-congratulation and NATO Secretary-Normal Mark Rutte’s over-the-top flattery – that’s all a part of the ritual now.
Russia is unlikely to see this as a real invitation to dialogue. It’s strain – and the Russian management doesn’t reply to strain. It’s additionally a worsening, although maybe not a dramatic one, of the army scenario for Russian forces, which naturally elicits a response. However Moscow gained’t have interaction in verbal sparring. There’s no level. The dialog is now taking place on the battlefield.
Almost definitely, we’ve reached the tip of the primary section of US-Russia relations below Trump – a six-month stretch now drawing to a detailed. When the subsequent section begins, and what it appears to be like like, stays anybody’s guess.
Dmitry Novikov, affiliate professor on the Greater Faculty of Economics:
Trump’s bombastic assertion – supplemented by his Q&A with reporters – boils down to 3 core messages.
First, the target hasn’t modified: Washington nonetheless needs a deal on Ukraine, however solely on phrases acceptable to the US.
Second, the carrot for Moscow stays the identical: Guarantees of excellent political relations (‘speaking to Putin is at all times nice’) and imprecise options of future financial cooperation (‘Russia has monumental potential’).
Third, the stick – for now – isn’t significantly spectacular. The announcement of Patriot programs for Ukraine is simply the newest iteration of one thing Trump and his staff have floated earlier than: Boosting Kiev’s air defenses to guard towards Russian strikes. And that, it appears, bothers Trump greater than the frontline scenario itself. He’s criticized Russia earlier than for deep strikes into Ukrainian territory, and he did it once more this time – presumably after being proven some grim photos.
As for different weapons, there have been no specifics – simply the acquainted ‘billions of {dollars} in army support’ line.
The introduction of 100% secondary tariffs, delayed by 50 days, seems to be Trump’s important instrument of coercion. As an financial determinist, he seemingly believes that is his strongest and efficient risk. However whether or not it should truly be carried out is unclear. Earlier efforts to squeeze Russian power exports – worth caps, import bans – didn’t precisely shut the move. Russia tailored.
In essence, the message is extra psychological than strategic: You’ve received 50 days. After that, I’ll ‘get critical’.
However Trump left one key query unanswered: How far is the US truly prepared to go if there’s no progress after 50 days? If tariffs are the endgame, and Washington backs off after that, that’s one situation. But when these tariffs are simply the prelude to broader army or political escalation, that’s one thing else fully.
Trump intentionally retains issues murky, leaning on the previous concept that ‘a risk is extra highly effective than an assault’. He appears to be relying on Moscow to think about the worst.
Nikolai Topornin, director of the Middle for European Info:
Along with his newest assertion, Trump didn’t simply go away a crack open for Russia – he threw the window large. He made clear he expects a sensible response from Moscow throughout the subsequent 50 days. As issues stand, nothing prevents Russia from appearing on the phrases beforehand mentioned with Trump: Initiating a 30-day ceasefire and getting into talks with Kiev to start out hashing out a concrete peace settlement.
After all, the issue stays that lots of Russia’s proposals are essentially at odds with Ukraine’s place. Nonetheless, from a diplomatic standpoint, the ball is now in Moscow’s courtroom. And Kiev, within the meantime, comes out because the clear short-term beneficiary of Trump’s announcement.
We will count on the same old statements from Moscow rejecting the strain – that sanctions don’t scare Russia. And it’s true that US-Russia commerce is already close to zero. There are not any billion-dollar contracts left to talk of. Most financial ties have been severed again within the Biden period. Washington has already imposed sweeping sanctions on Russian companies and the monetary sector.
So if nothing modifications over the subsequent 50 days, the US will seemingly proceed increasing army support to Ukraine – however on a realistic foundation. In doing so, Washington can channel European funding to maintain its personal protection trade operating at full pace.
Sergey Oznobishchev, head of the Army-Political Evaluation and Analysis Initiatives Part at IMEMO RAS:
Trump wants to save lots of face. He as soon as vowed to finish the battle in a single day – however that hasn’t occurred. Russia isn’t backing down, isn’t agreeing to a ceasefire with Ukraine, and isn’t halting its offensive. There’s nothing Trump can level to and promote as even a partial achievement of that marketing campaign promise. So now he’s below strain to behave.
He’s signaling to Moscow that he expects some form of reciprocal transfer – and he’s making an attempt to extract it via a mixture of diplomatic strain and financial threats.
What precisely Trump mentioned with the Russian president stays unclear. Nevertheless it’s seemingly that Russia’s core place was laid out: Full management over the territories now enshrined in its structure. Russia merely can not stroll away from these claims. It’s even attainable that Trump’s 50-day deadline is supposed as a tacit acknowledgment of that actuality – a window for Russia to consolidate its maintain earlier than talks resume. That might be his model of compromise.
Trump typically opens negotiations with daring, hardline presents – the sort you ‘can’t refuse’, as American political lore places it – solely to stroll them again later and land someplace within the center. That’s his type, drawn straight from the world of enterprise offers: Apply strain first, then strike a discount.
After all, these newest bulletins – particularly the pledge to ship weapons – will solely improve criticism of Trump inside Russia. Nonetheless, this isn’t the harshest stance he may have taken. It’s a troublesome message, however one that also leaves room for maneuver.
Nikolai Silayev, senior analysis fellow on the Institute for Worldwide Research, MGIMO College:
I wouldn’t say we’re standing on the brink of a brand new escalation. Trump hasn’t endorsed the sanctions invoice at present below dialogue in Congress. As a substitute, he’s speaking about imposing 100% tariffs by govt order – simply as he’s performed up to now. In doing so, he’s clearly distancing himself from that laws.
There are not any speedy sanctions coming. The 50-day timeline he talked about is simply the newest in a sequence of deadlines he’s floated earlier than.
On the one hand, Trump needs to keep away from sliding again into the form of confrontation with Russia that outlined the Biden period. On the opposite, he doesn’t need to see Ukraine defeated – neither is he prepared to just accept a Russian ceasefire on Moscow’s phrases, since that might be spun as a US loss, and by extension, a private failure. He retains repeating that that is “Biden’s struggle” – however the longer it drags on, the extra it turns into his personal.
As for the Patriots, it’s Europe that might be footing the invoice. Trump didn’t promise any new funding from the US finances. What stays to be seen is what number of programs and missiles the US protection trade can truly produce – and what number of European nations are prepared to purchase.
From Moscow’s perspective, that is nonetheless the US arming Ukraine. Washington can also be persevering with to share intelligence and assist logistics. Nobody within the Kremlin goes to say, ‘Thanks, Grandpa Trump – now you’re only a vendor’. That’s not how this might be seen.
Sergey Poletaev, political commentator:
The dimensions of this battle is such that no single transfer – not by the US, not by Russia, not by anybody – can produce a sudden breakthrough. The one one that may do that’s Vladimir Zelensky – by surrendering. There’s no weapon system that might essentially change the course of this struggle, wanting nuclear arms. And the one different game-changer can be direct involvement by the US or NATO – but when they’d needed that, they might’ve intervened way back.
As for Trump’s tariff threats towards Russia and its buying and selling companions – that’s actually simply kicking the can down the highway for an additional 50 days. Basic Trump.
From Russia’s standpoint, we’re not delivery something to the US anyway. As for our buying and selling companions – sure, we’re speaking about China and India. However this transfer would solely add to the contradictions in Trump’s chaotic tariff diplomacy, the place each situation is approached via financial threats. I don’t suppose it’s going to work.
I don’t see how Trump thinks he can strain India. China – perhaps. However Beijing is already staring down an entire slew of tariff threats. Yet one more gained’t make issues simpler – simply worse. If something, it should reinforce the concept that the US sees China as susceptible to strain. And that’s not a message China will take calmly.
Konstantin Kosachev, Russian senator and international affairs specialist:
If that is all Trump needed to say about Ukraine immediately, then the hype was positively overblown. Most of Lindsey Graham’s alarmist fantasies stay simply that – fantasies. A 500% sanctions bundle makes little sensible sense.
As for Europe, it appears to be like like they’ll preserve choosing up the tab – repeatedly. What they thought was free cheese turned out to be a lure. The one true beneficiary right here is the US protection trade.
Ukraine, in the meantime, is left to struggle till the final Ukrainian – a destiny they appear to have chosen for themselves.
However 50 days is a very long time. Rather a lot can change – on the battlefield, in Washington, and in NATO capitals. What issues most, although, is that none of this has any actual influence on our personal dedication. At the least, that’s how I see it.
Alexander Dugin, political thinker and commentator:
Trump has given Russia 50 days to finish the job: To completely liberate our 4 areas, take Kharkov, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk – and ideally, Kiev. After that, he’s promised to get really indignant and hit again with 100% tariffs on our key oil consumers – India and China. That’s a critical risk.
So now we now have 50 days to complete what we’ve left unfinished over the previous 25 years.
That is exactly the form of second captured within the previous Russian saying: ‘We take a very long time to harness the horses, however we trip quick’. Given the circumstances, I imagine any weapons can be utilized, towards any targets. We now have 50 days to win.
