Survey Says is a weekly sequence rounding up crucial polling traits or information factors you should learn about, plus a vibe examine on a pattern that’s driving politics.
World start charges are falling, and lots of on the precise need you to get on the market and breed for the great of the U.S. of A.
“Let me say very merely, I need extra infants in the US of America,” Vice President JD Vance mentioned at an anti-abortion rally in January.
However new polling finds that the majority Individuals don’t share his concern about declining start charges. What they are involved about, although, could also be one of many causes for decrease start charges: the budget-busting worth of changing into a mother or father and elevating a child. They usually largely disagree with Vance’s thought of the best way to repair it.
Simply 28% of Individuals say declining start charges are a significant drawback, in response to a brand new survey from the Related Press-NORC Heart for Public Affairs Analysis. In the meantime, 44% say it’s a minor drawback, and 27% think about it no drawback in any respect.
And even fewer Individuals are followers of Vance’s favourite topic: Simply 12% assume it ought to be a excessive precedence for the federal government to encourage individuals to have extra children.
Vance could sofa his birthing obsession in language about replacement-level start charges, however on nearer inspection, it’s clear their issues derive from reactionary misogyny, a reflexive concern and hatred of ladies selecting to have fewer children—and of individuals apart from stay-at-home mothers elevating these children.
“A dramatic enlargement of kid care is a foul deal for American mother and father,” Vance wrote in a 2021 Wall Avenue Journal op-ed. However since greater than 4 in 5 stay-at-home mother and father are ladies, it’s not arduous to work out that what conservatives really need is fewer ladies working. They’d slightly them stay economically depending on males. In any case, this is identical man who desires to finish no-fault divorce and thinks ladies ought to stick it out in “violent” marriages.
Vance additionally decried the concept of non-family-based baby care, complaining to Tucker Carlson in 2021 that some Individuals “need strangers to lift their children.”
However once more, this creep is simply out of contact. The identical ballot finds that the overwhelming majority of Individuals (76%) see the price of baby care as a significant drawback, and one other 18% see it as a minor drawback. Solely 5% don’t see it as an issue.
The nationwide common worth to have an toddler in a baby care middle is over $13,000 a yr, in response to information from Baby Care Conscious of America, a nationwide group that advocates for reasonably priced baby care. The median family revenue in 2023 was $80,610, in response to the U.S. Census Bureau, which means that baby care accounts for over 16% of the everyday household’s funds—an quantity rivaled solely by housing, meals, and medical health insurance prices.
And what if that household has two children? Or three? Or what if there’s just one mother or father? Some individuals merely can’t afford to have a child, even when they need one.
In fact, many Democrats are operating on making baby care extra reasonably priced—or, for those who’re New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, free. That’s considered one of Mamdani’s principal marketing campaign planks, which most likely boosted him to his shock victory within the native Democratic major final month. In 2024, 67% of Individuals supported the concept of the federal government offering funding for baby care, in response to YouGov.
Different causes for why some Individuals are opting out of parenthood are the prices and risks of getting pregnant within the first place. The AP-NORC ballot finds that 41% of Individuals say the steep worth of fertility remedies as a significant drawback, and one other 34% assume it’s a minor drawback. Moreover, 39% see the dangers of being pregnant and childbirth as a significant drawback, and 43% see it as a minor drawback.
And sadly, the latter drawback is getting a lot worse beneath Republican management. States with extra abortion restrictions face increased charges of moms dying throughout being pregnant and within the yr following childbirth.
In any case, if having a child prices you your life, who can afford that?
Any updates?
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Following the lethal floods in Central Texas, YouGov finds that roughly 1 in 5 Individuals (18%) have needed to evacuate their houses because of floods, tornados, and different excessive climate not less than as soon as of their lives. Within the South, that quantity climbs to 1 in 4 (26%), seemingly because of the added risk of hurricanes.
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Relishing its personal gleeful cruelty, the Trump administration has nicknamed an immigrant detention middle “Alligator Alcatraz” because it’s situated within the Florida Everglades. However but once more, the administration is overestimating the blood-thirstiness of the common American: Just one in 3 assist the opening of this detention middle, in response to YouGov. In the meantime, 48% oppose it, and 18% aren’t certain.
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American satisfaction is falling, with some polls discovering it at a brand new low—and particularly low amongst Democrats and independents. However not solely is there a partisan hole on American satisfaction, there was additionally one on watching Fourth of July fireworks. YouGov finds that 56% of Republicans watched the fireworks this yr, whereas 55% of Democrats and 54% of independents didn’t.
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The Trump administration is transferring to revoke U.S. citizenship for many who have dedicated crimes, and he’s even flirting with the concept of deporting Mamdani, a U.S. citizen who was born in Uganda. Nonetheless, these threats are vastly unpopular, with 70% of seemingly voters pondering the president shouldn’t have the ability to revoke citizenship from immigrants, in response to Information for Progress. Fifty-five % even say the federal government shouldn’t be capable of deport naturalized residents who’ve dedicated severe crimes.
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The Inside Income Companies will now permit church buildings to endorse political candidates with out risking their tax-exempt standing, additional eroding the boundary between church and state. Nonetheless, simply 20% of Individuals assist the concept of church buildings making endorsements, in response to 2023 information just lately launched by the Public Faith Analysis Institute. Not even a majority of people that consider in Christian nationalism (45%) assist church buildings moving into the endorsement recreation.
Vibe examine
Excessive warmth is now the norm and hitting earlier within the yr. But when June is the brand new July, then what does that make July? Presumably much more lethally sizzling, particularly if Trump and his science-denying allies additional hobble the federal government’s capacity to struggle the local weather disaster.
We are able to’t know what number of deaths Trump’s denialism will trigger, but when historic traits maintain, it’s more likely to be rather a lot. A examine revealed final August within the Journal of the American Medical Affiliation finds that heat-related deaths within the U.S. are getting worse. In 2023, there have been 2,325 heat-related deaths, the very best within the 24 years of information the examine lined. It’s additionally double what it was in 2020.
The great-ish information is that information from the Pew Analysis Heart exhibits Individuals who face excessive climate largely attribute it to local weather change. Fifty % or extra of those that have suffered excessive climate, like floods, droughts, and extreme warmth, prior to now 12 months say local weather change contributed “rather a lot” to what they suffered via.
A minimum of individuals appear conscious of what’s making issues so dangerous. Now if solely they’d vote for individuals who need to change it …
