Russia’s President Vladimir Putin speaks throughout a plenary session of the St. Petersburg Worldwide Financial Discussion board (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia, June 20, 2025.
Anton Vaganov | Reuters
Russia’s response to Iran’s name for assistance is being intently watched on Monday after the U.S. bombed Tehran’s nuclear services over the weekend — however Moscow won’t be fast to supply its ally a hand.
The assaults on Iranian nuclear websites, which President Donald Trump described as an “obliteration,” has left the Islamic Republic scrambling for assist from the few buddies it has on the worldwide stage. Iran’s International Minister Abbas Araghchi headed to Moscow on Monday for “critical consultations” with Russian President Vladimir Putin over easy methods to reply the assaults.
Iran has helped Russia with navy drones all through the conflict in Ukraine, however analysts now say there is perhaps little or no Moscow can or will to do to reciprocate.
“Iran has massively supported Putin’s conflict towards Ukraine with weapons and expertise. On his journey to Moscow, Iran’s international minister Abbas Araghchi could now ask Moscow to return the favour,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Financial institution, mentioned in a notice Monday.
“Nevertheless, Putin has in all probability little to supply past some phrases. He wants his weapons himself for his continued aggression towards Ukraine,” he famous.
Russia additionally has to tread a tremendous line between placating and aiding ally Iran and conserving the U.S. candy, because it appears to be like to re-establish ties with Donald Trump’s Russia-friendlier administration.
“If Putin had been to harass Trump over Iran in any vital manner, Trump could change tack and impose new heavy sanctions on Russia and/or weaken Putin’s place in different methods,” Schmieding mentioned.
To this point, Moscow’s response to the escalating disaster has been muted, with Russia calling on Iran and Israel to barter a peaceable finish to the disaster.
Successful some, dropping some
The Iranian battle might strengthen Russia’s place in Ukraine modestly, analysts say, because it distracts Western consideration — and doubtlessly assets — away from Ukraine. Larger oil costs might additionally imply extra export income for oil producer Russia’s conflict coffers.
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes palms with Iranian International Minister Abbas Araqchi throughout a gathering on the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia June 23, 2025.
Alexander Kazakov | Through Reuters
On the identical time, Russia is watching on as one other Center Japanese ally is weakened, eroding its personal foothold within the area within the course of. Russia has already seen one helpful alliance crumble lately by means of final yr’s ousting of Bashar al Assad’s regime in Syria placing the way forward for Moscow’s air and naval bases within the nation unsure.
Russia stands to additional lose out on doubtlessly profitable investments and infrastructure initiatives, if Iran is severely destabilized. The difficulty for Moscow is to now gauge how a lot it has to win or lose by serving to or abandoning Iran.
“Moscow itself seems to be undecided what to make of a brand new conflict within the Center East,” Nikita Smagin, an skilled on Iranian international and home insurance policies on the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Heart, mentioned in evaluation.
“On the one hand, Russia has invested closely in varied initiatives in Iran over the previous three years, all of which might now go to waste. On the identical time, Moscow hopes to profit from Center Japanese instability by rising oil costs and declining curiosity in Ukraine.”
Ruling out the potential of Russia giving Iran any navy help, Smagin mentioned the larger difficulty for Moscow is the risk to all of the Iranian ventures it has actively invested in lately, together with oil and fuel initiatives, infrastructure and transit routes.
“A number of days earlier than the beginning of the Israeli operation, the Iranian ambassador to Moscow mentioned that Russia was the nation’s largest international investor in 2024. The ambassador didn’t specify any funding volumes, however Russian investments had been estimated at $2.76 billion the earlier yr. Moscow deliberate to speculate about $8 billion in oil and fuel initiatives alone,” Smagin mentioned.
“Now the way forward for these initiatives is unsure.”
