Final week, Rep. Mikie Sherrill received New Jersey’s hotly contested Democratic gubernatorial main with 34% of the vote in a six-way race. New Jersey is one in all simply two states holding off-year governor’s races in 2025, the opposite being Virginia.
Sherrill is now the frontrunner heading into November’s election. Her Republican opponent, former state Rep. Jack Ciattarelli got here shockingly near successful 4 years in the past. However like Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, he benefited from Donald Trump not being on the poll or in workplace. This time round, Trump is all in, loudly endorsing Ciattarelli—a lot to Sherrill’s delight, little question.
Sherrill instantly pointed to the sky-high Democratic turnout as each the important thing to her win and a preview of November.
“We had virtually 800,000 folks voting on this main. That’s exceptional,” she advised the Washington Put up. “It reveals you the eagerness folks have, reveals you what’s coming in November right here.”
And that’s underselling it. Democratic turnout now stands at 814,669, a genuinely extraordinary quantity. The closest comparability is from 2017, which noticed 503,682 votes. In 2021, it was simply 382,984 (an unopposed main), and solely 195,171 in 2013.
Republicans additionally hit a report of 459,574 votes, up from 339,033 in 2021 and the mid-200,000s in 2013 and 2017. However even with this increase, they nonetheless lag far behind Democrats’ surge.
This turnout is very encouraging given New Jersey’s sharp rightward shift within the 2024 presidential election. Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state simply 52-46, in comparison with President Joe Biden’s 57-41 win in 2020—a web 10-point swing to Republicans, largely pushed by weak Democratic turnout. That’s clearly been fastened.
Holding New Jersey’s governorship—and reclaiming Virginia’s—issues. However what’s actually thrilling is what this says concerning the 2026 midterms.
Typical knowledge says that the occasion within the White Home will get shellacked within the midterms—particularly with an unpopular president. However Biden and Democrats already broke that rule in 2022. Nothing’s carved in stone.
In the meantime, Republicans bought obliterated in Trump’s first time period through the 2018 midterms, when Democrats flipped 41 Home seats and seven governor seats. His second time period is off to a good worse begin, and with these early indicators of hyper-engaged Democrats, the vibes are good.
Positive, 2026 continues to be a good distance off. But when these numbers spook sufficient Republicans in swing districts, Democrats may have the ability to grind this narrowly divided Congress to a halt.
That alone is value celebrating.
