Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of a very powerful polling tendencies or information factors you should learn about. You’ll additionally discover data-based updates on previous Each day Kos reporting, plus a vibe examine on a pattern that’s driving politics.
Republicans’ proposed Medicaid cuts hit house
This previous week, Home Republicans launched their first main piece of laws, “THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL”—caps included—which might slash over $700 billion from Medicaid and kick tens of millions of individuals off their medical health insurance.
In different phrases, Republicans are appearing like they don’t symbolize anybody enrolled in Medicaid—which is much from the reality.
On common, 1 in 5 Individuals residing in a Republican-held Home district is enrolled in Medicaid, in keeping with a Each day Kos evaluation of knowledge compiled by KFF. In reality, 13 GOP-held districts have 1 in 3 enrolled in Medicaid, and two districts have greater than half of residents registered within the public medical health insurance program.
Sixty-four p.c of California’s twenty second District is enrolled in Medicaid. The district is represented by David Valadao, a moderate-ish Republican who voted to question President Donald Trump within the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol rebel. He received reelection final yr, with 53.4% of the vote to his Democratic challenger’s 46.6%. Nonetheless, 495,200 of his constituents, together with 176,600 youngsters, are enrolled in Medicaid, so if he votes to slash this system, it would doubtless backfire.
Nonetheless, Kentucky’s fifth District—the place 54% are enrolled in Medicaid—is one other story. It’s represented by far-right Republican Hal Rogers, and final yr, Democrats didn’t contest the district, which Trump received with 79% of the vote. Margins like that may give Rogers, a person of little character, no cause to not vote to jeopardize well being protection for greater than half of his constituents.
Nonetheless, Medicaid is a highly regarded program, with 88% of Democrats, 81% of independents, and even 64% of Republicans having a good view of it, in keeping with a KFF ballot carried out in January.
If Republicans undergo with their Medicaid-wrecking funds invoice, it’ll give Democrats a simple, resonant line of assault forward of the 2026 midterm elections. It’s simply an terrible disgrace that it’ll come on the expense of low-income and disabled people struggling.
Okay, doomer
Struggle, what’s it good for? One thing to really feel scared about, apparently.
A brand new YouGov ballot for The Economist finds that 44% of U.S. grownup residents assume a world warfare is extra doubtless now than it was 5 years in the past. Solely 13% say a world warfare is much less doubtless now, whereas 30% say it’s about the identical.
Worse, 36% of Individuals say a nuclear warfare is extra doubtless at this time than 5 years in the past, whereas an analogous share (34%) say it’s about the identical. Nonetheless, solely 14% say it’s much less doubtless now.
That sounds dangerous—very dangerous—however the reality is, fears of a nuclear warfare appear to be truly fizzling out or not less than plateauing.
Each day Kos tracked down 17 polls wherein YouGov requested in regards to the present probability of nuclear warfare in contrast with 5 years prior, with the primary survey coming into the sphere simply two days after Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. That ballot discovered that 48% of Individuals believed nuclear warfare was extra doubtless at the moment than 5 years prior.
In a ballot fielded the next week, that quantity spiked to 59%, presumably as a result of elevated media protection of Russia’s invasion.
However thus far, 59% has been the height, with that determine steadily dropping to the mid-to-low 40s by September 2022. There was a quick spike again as much as round 50% between October and November of that yr, doubtless spurred by faltering talks of a brand new Iran nuclear deal in addition to the continuing warfare in Ukraine. However in January, it fell once more to 42%.
And now it has fallen additional, to 36%. However why?
It’s attainable that many Individuals who noticed a higher risk in 2022-2023 have since settled right into a form of center floor: 34% of Individuals within the newest ballot say the probabilities of nuclear warfare are “about the identical” as 5 years in the past. That’s the best “about the identical” determine throughout the 17 polls. This might imply that the elevated risk Individuals felt again then has since stabilized.
It’s additionally attainable that Individuals’ elevated concern of a nuclear warfare was tied to media protection round Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In any case, Russia is estimated to have the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, at 5,580 warheads, and solely the U.S. comes shut with 5,22 of its personal. If a nuclear warfare have been to start out, it’d most likely contain one or each of these nations at some capability. However because the warfare in Ukraine has pale from entrance pages, Individuals’ nuclear fears have stabilized or decreased.
One more reason for Individuals’ altering attitudes could possibly be partisanship. Throughout all polls carried out whereas Joe Biden was president, a mean of 46% of Democrats mentioned the present likelihood of nuclear warfare was higher than 5 years prior, just about the identical because the share within the newest ballot (45%). Nonetheless, throughout Biden’s presidency, the typical share of Republicans who felt the identical means was 57%—and it by no means dipped beneath 48%. However the newest ballot, carried out greater than 100 days into Trump’s second administration, finds that simply 28% of Republicans say nuclear warfare is extra doubtless than 5 years in the past.
Hmm … surprise what modified.
Dissatisfied with freedoms
Newly launched information from Gallup finds Individuals are much less happy with their freedoms than their international friends—however a lot of that has to do with how a lot much less free American girls really feel.
Seventy-two of Individuals have been happy with their freedom to reside their life as they see match. Nonetheless, that’s beneath the worldwide median (81%) and properly beneath these residing in wealthy, market-based economies (86%). Nonetheless, in 2021, 81% of Individuals have been happy with their freedoms.
So what occurred? The Dobbs choice occurred, principally.
The share of American girls who have been happy with their freedoms dropped from 81% in 2021 to 71% in 2022—and has continued to fall, reaching 66% final yr. That makes for a 15-point drop since 2021, and it’s thrice the decline males noticed between 2021 and 2024 (5 factors).
Gallup’s information hyperlinks this decline and this gender hole to the Supreme Court docket’s choice in Dobbs v. Jackson Ladies’s Well being Group, which eradicated the constitutional proper to abortion. Why that hyperlink? As a result of Gallup’s 2022 survey was within the subject as Politico reported on a leaked draft of that call, on Might 2, 2022.
In surveys accomplished within the days earlier than Politico’s report, 80% of American girls mentioned they felt happy with their freedom within the U.S., however within the days instantly after the report, that quantity plummeted to 68%. In the meantime, the share of American males who have been happy with their freedoms remained basically unchanged (75% earlier than the leak, 77% after the leak).
Like every good information science agency, Gallup hedges its discovering, writing, “Whereas the ballot doesn’t ask individuals why they do or don’t really feel happy with their freedom, the timing of the 2022 decline relative to the Supreme Court docket’s choice in Dobbs means that the lack of constitutional safety for abortion could possibly be a robust issue” in Individuals’ declining satisfaction with their private freedom.
“That call coincided with a decline in girls’s satisfaction with their freedom, one which has solely deepened since,” Gallup added.
Any updates?
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Trump has accepted a deliberate bribe from the Qatari authorities within the type of a $400 million luxurious jet that his presidential library will personal after he exits the White Home—and shockingly, 52% of Individuals say this reward will affect Trump’s actions as president, in keeping with a new YouGov information. Moreover, 47% say his acceptance of the reward is “unacceptable.”
Vibe examine
As of Friday, 60% of registered voters assume abortion needs to be authorized in most or all instances, whereas 37% assume it needs to be unlawful in most or all instances, in keeping with Civiqs. Nonetheless, amongst feminine voters, 66% help abortion being authorized in most/all instances, and solely 31% assume it needs to be unlawful in most/all instances.
Assist for abortion rights is decrease amongst males. The plurality (35%) say abortion needs to be unlawful most often, with one other 9% saying it needs to be unlawful in all instances. In the meantime, 29% say it needs to be authorized most often, and 23% say it needs to be authorized in all instances.
