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Dan Graziano
If we’re being trustworthy, this complete week is an overreaction, proper? We have recognized 2025 opponents for each NFL crew because the finish of the 2024 common season. Wednesday night time’s announcement of the total 2025 schedule — following a number of days’ price of individual-game reveals (principally involving the Eagles) — is especially noteworthy as a result of it affords followers and reporters the possibility to make a bunch of flight and resort reservations.
However hey, it’s enjoyable. We sit right here in the midst of Could, with the NBA and NHL playoffs dominating sports activities protection, feeling about as removed from the NFL season as potential. So to see it begin to take form — to play the win-win-lose-win-lose-win recreation along with your favourite crew’s game-by-game schedule — is an efficient feeling for NFL followers. We wish to deal with it like a recreation week. And what which means …
That is proper. It is schedule launch overreactions! Let’s decide whether or not a number of potential takeaways from the 2025 schedule are official or irrational.
Be aware: To evaluate power of schedule all through these overreactions, we used the admittedly imperfect technique of utilizing opponent win-loss data from the earlier season.
Leap to a possible overreaction on:
49ers’ very simple schedule
Giants’ very exhausting schedule
Lions’ highway/out of doors schedule
Vikings’ worldwide schedule
Cowboys’ second-half schedule
The 49ers will cruise again into the playoffs
Flip the calendar again a 12 months and the 49ers have been one of many strongest favorites to achieve and even win the Tremendous Bowl. They have been on a three-year streak of advancing at the least to the NFC Championship Sport and had simply misplaced the Tremendous Bowl to the Chiefs in extra time. However a shocking rash of accidents — most notably to star working again Christian McCaffrey — sunk San Francisco’s 2024 season. The Niners completed 6-11 and in final place within the NFC West.
This 12 months, the 49ers challenge to have the league’s best 17-game slate. Their 2025 opponents mixed for a .415 win share in 2024. Their nondivision house video games are in opposition to the Falcons, Panthers, Jaguars, Titans and Bears, and their nondivision away video games are in opposition to the Browns, Texans, Colts, Saints, Buccaneers and Giants. There are simply two 2024 playoff groups on San Francisco’s out-of-division schedule this season (Texans and Buccaneers), and the one in-division video games it is going to play in opposition to 2024 playoff groups are the 2 versus the Rams.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Oh, it’s very honest to anticipate the 49ers to bounce again and be a contender this season. In the course of the Kyle Shanahan period, they have been precisely that every time they have been capable of keep away from the form of horrible damage luck that they had final season. But it surely’s necessary to recollect how a lot has modified in San Francisco this offseason.
The Niners have stated goodbye to broad receiver Deebo Samuel Sr., guard Aaron Banks, defensive sort out Javon Hargrave, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, cornerback Charvarius Ward and security Talanoa Hufanga. Almost half of the beginning lineup from the Tremendous Bowl they performed in 15 months in the past is not on the crew. They nonetheless have Brock Purdy at quarterback, and getting McCaffrey, wideout Brandon Aiyuk and left sort out Trent Williams again wholesome will definitely assist. But it surely’s not honest to anticipate the 2025 49ers to only snap again to what they have been in 2023.
Additionally, the previous three groups that entered the season with the “best” schedule (once more, in keeping with earlier marketing campaign’s successful percentages) all completed with shedding data. That tells you numerous in regards to the relevancy of getting the “best” schedule.
Jaxson Dart would be the Giants’ beginning quarterback by November
The Giants traded up to pick Dart within the first spherical of this 12 months’s draft as a result of they consider he might be their franchise quarterback of the longer term. In addition they signed veterans Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston in free company, giving them beginning QB choices in case they did not get one within the draft or the man they did draft wasn’t prepared to start out instantly. The Giants’ plan, as of now, is to start out Wilson and provides Dart as a lot time as he must get prepared — the entire 2025 season, if want be. And the truth that the Giants have the hardest schedule within the NFL might be an enormous purpose to let Dart have the entire season to study behind the veterans.
In fact, the tough-looking schedule additionally might imply the Giants fall out of rivalry early and resolve to get Dart some NFL recreation expertise in a lower-pressure atmosphere. The Giants have video games at Washington, Dallas, New Orleans, Denver and Philadelphia within the first eight weeks of the season, and their three house video games in that stretch are in opposition to the Chiefs, Chargers and Eagles.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Everyone knows this by no means works, proper? Groups all the time say they wish to give their rookie quarterback no matter time he wants, they usually fairly often say they’re keen to take a seat him the complete season if wanted. Assume again to final season’s Patriots, who began Jacoby Brissett whereas rookie Drake Maye rode the bench to start the marketing campaign. However inevitably, as soon as losses begin piling up, the crew decides it has to make a change. The Patriots received their opener however misplaced the subsequent 4 video games, and Maye was the beginning QB in Week 6 (and for the remainder of the season).
Actually the one time this rest-the-rookie-all-season plan has labored was with the 2017 Chiefs, who began 5-0 and stayed in first place all season behind Alex Smith whereas Patrick Mahomes sat on the bench. (And even then, Mahomes performed with backups within the ultimate recreation of the common season.) The percentages of the Giants beginning 5-0 in opposition to the Commanders, Cowboys, Chiefs, Chargers and Saints and staying in first place all season really feel slim, at finest.
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Orlovsky: The Giants ought to lean on Russell Wilson early on
Dan Orlovsky chats with Pat McAfee in regards to the Giants quarterbacks, and why they need to be affected person with Jaxson Dart.
The entire historical past round these conditions tells us Dart will play in some unspecified time in the future this season. Wilson hasn’t been an excellent beginning quarterback for the previous 4 years. Winston is a stopgap man at this level in his profession. Dart is the Giants’ future, and except their current goes to be a really nice shock to lots of people, they are going to wish to get that future going as quickly as potential. It might be as early as Week 5 at New Orleans or after the Week 6 Thursday night time recreation in opposition to the visiting Eagles or following the Week 8 contest in Philly.
The Lions’ two-year NFC North title streak will come to an finish
After not successful their division since 1993, the Lions completed first with a 12-5 document in 2023 and repeated as NFC North champs at 15-2 final season. They’ve seen a variety of turnover on their teaching workers this offseason, with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson now the coach of the Bears and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn the brand new coach of the Jets. However the roster stays extraordinarily robust on paper, and getting star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson again from his season-ending leg damage ought to solely assist.
It is necessary to recollect, although, that this division had three playoff groups final season and the Lions wanted to beat Minnesota within the ultimate recreation of the common season to seal their second straight division title.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
To not take something in any respect away from the sensible season that Dan Campbell’s bunch simply had, however you would possibly recall that 15 of the 18 video games they performed (together with their playoff matchup) have been indoors. Positive, they received all three of their out of doors video games — at Inexperienced Bay in Week 9, at Chicago in Week 16 and at San Francisco in Week 17. However let’s not overlook that Lions quarterback Jared Goff has a 51.4 profession QBR and a 1.9 profession TD/INT ratio in out of doors video games versus a 61.7 QBR and a 3.2 TD/INT ratio in indoor video games.
Why does this matter? Nicely, this season’s Lions schedule options seven out of doors video games. Along with their annual in-division journeys to Inexperienced Bay and Chicago, the Lions play at Philadelphia, Washington, Kansas Metropolis, Baltimore and Cincinnati. And of Detroit’s 9 highway opponents, seven made the playoffs in 2024. The Lions’ highway foes this season mixed for a .667 win share in 2024, giving Detroit the hardest highway power of schedule by any crew within the Tremendous Bowl period.
Issue within the power of the division, practically half of their video games being open air and having to play highway matchups in opposition to 5 groups that went deeper than they did within the 2024 postseason, and the Lions’ path to a three-peat within the NFC North seems very daunting.
The Vikings received a uncooked cope with back-to-back video games in Dublin and London
The Vikings will journey to play the Steelers within the first NFL recreation in Dublin in Week 4 then will face the Browns in London in Week 5. It’s the first time a crew will play consecutive NFL video games in numerous international locations outdoors of america.
The association probably will maintain the Vikings away from house for 10 days, as they’re going to certainly keep abroad for the week between the 2 video games quite than fly house and fly again. And in what shapes up as an extremely aggressive NFC North, it is the form of factor that would set a crew again if it would not deal with it the appropriate approach.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
The Vikings are cool with this, guys. They knew about it properly forward of time. Coach Kevin O’Connell informed London reporters that it was “form of a joint choice” between the crew and the NFL. And whereas it’s historic to be taking part in video games in consecutive weeks in two totally different international international locations, it isn’t like these international locations are Australia and Finland. The flight from Dublin to London is not for much longer than the flight from Minneapolis to Inexperienced Bay, which the Vikings make yearly.
The previous couple of years, the Jaguars have performed consecutive weeks in London and stayed over in between. O’Connell and his workers are positive to make use of the ten days away as a bonding expertise for the crew.
And as O’Connell identified the opposite day when the video games have been introduced, the Vikings are technically the highway crew in each of those video games. That signifies that whereas most NFC groups will play 9 highway video games this season, the Vikings will play seven precise highway matchups and two neutral-site video games. The Vikings have by no means received at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, they usually’ve received just one recreation in Cleveland since 1989. That is two would-be out of doors highway video games in hostile locations that may get chilly and windy that the Vikings now haven’t got to fret about this season. Minnesota goes to be simply high-quality with this association.
The Cowboys might have a really sad vacation season
Dallas has a Week 10 bye, which is simply in regards to the ideally suited time to have one. The Cowboys additionally come out of it to play in Las Vegas on a Monday night time. So, the Cowboys will 13 days off earlier than beginning the second half of their season. They’d higher relaxation up …
After the Raiders recreation, the Cowboys have a house matchup in opposition to the Eagles on quick relaxation then a Thanksgiving Day recreation in opposition to the visiting Chiefs on even shorter relaxation. So after 13 days with out taking part in, they’re going to play three video games in 11 days, with two of these coming in opposition to final season’s Tremendous Bowl groups. Then they’re at Detroit the next Thursday earlier than house video games in opposition to the Vikings and Chargers in Weeks 15 and 16, respectively. Then they’re at Washington on Christmas with one other Sunday-to-Thursday turnaround earlier than ending with a probable layup in opposition to the Giants in New Jersey.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
I imply, even acknowledging the truth that all the identical groups that have been good final season aren’t positive to be good once more this season, that could be a tough stretch. Three short-week video games within the ultimate six weeks of the season is not any crew’s thought of time. All 4 of the Cowboys’ post-bye highway video games are in numerous time zones than the one they play in. And all 4 of their post-bye house video games are in opposition to groups that made the playoffs final season.
If the Cowboys wish to take their flip of their annual flip-flopping of the NFC East title between them and the Eagles, they might should construct up an enormous pre-bye division lead.
