Elon Musk is teasing a brand new Tesla ‘Full Self-Driving Supervised’ (FSD) replace with “10x enhancements”, however historic efficiency in comparison with Musk’s bulletins means that it’s safer to handle your expectations.
In a brand new X publish final evening, Musk is teasing an upcoming new FSD replace that may embody a “10x enhance in parameters”:
Tesla is coaching a brand new FSD mannequin with ~10X params and an enormous enchancment to video compression loss. In all probability prepared for public launch finish of subsequent month if testing goes nicely.
That is the second time that Musk is teasing an replace to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving program this yr.
The model of FSD in client automobiles hasn’t improved all yr, as Tesla has centered its efforts on its ‘Robotaxi’ service in Austin.
After launching FSD v13 on HW4 automobiles late final yr, the system has not proven significant enchancment based mostly on crowdsourced neighborhood knowledge.
In truth, it seems to be deteriorating.
With 16,000 miles on the primary 5 level updates on FSD v13, folks had been touring on common 510 miles between vital disengagements (left), and now with the final 4 level updates, individuals are touring 431 miles between vital disengagements (proper):
Though the discrepancy may be defined just by the newest knowledge being extra correct with extra mileage.
Now, Tesla shareholders are hoping that the lag in enchancment can be mitigated by Tesla utilizing what it has realized by its deployment of its supervised robotaxi service in Austin to launch a considerably improved FSD replace.
In June, Musk first teased this replace, and on the time, he stated that it might embody a “4x enhance in parameters” and would come “within the subsequent few months.”
Now, he appears to bonify the rise in parameters to “10x” and adjusts the timeline to the top of September.
Nevertheless, earlier than getting excited, it’s essential to recollect the final time Musk promised a rise in efficiency by a rise in parameters.
The CEO stated that FSD v12.5 on HW4 was a “5x enhance in parameters” and that was fairly disappointing.
FSD v12.5 on HW4 (left) solely introduced a 22% enhance in miles between vital disengagement in comparison with v12.3 (proper):
In truth, the miles between vital disengagements plummeted with different v12.5 level updates, and it in the end ended at 184 miles between vital disengagements, considerably beneath v12.3:
Subsequently, it’s arduous to get too excited a couple of new “10 enhance in parameters” when that’s what occurred the final time Musk referred to as for it.
Electrek’s Take
Let’s be optimistic right here and assume a 2x enchancment in miles between vital disengagements any further.
FSD on HW4 would nonetheless solely be at about 900 miles between vital disengagements, which is nowhere close to the place it’s good to be for an unsupervised self-driving system.
At this enchancment price, Tesla would nonetheless want 5-10 years to get near an unsupervised driving system and that’s whereas it’s reaching the boundaries of its HW4 system. It’s changing into pretty clear that HW4 goes the way in which of HW3: obsolescence.
Tesla FSD can be spectacular if it had been bought as what it’s: a degree 3 driver help system. It’s greatest on the market.
However it must be in contrast in opposition to what it’s bought as: a self-driving system that may allow unsupervised autonomy.
Compared to that, it’s horrible.
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