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MBW Reacts is a sequence of analytical commentaries from Music Enterprise Worldwide written in response to main current leisure occasions or information tales. Solely MBW+ subscribers have limitless entry to those articles.
The newest music consumption stats are out from industry-standard market monitor, Luminate.
They inform a narrative of a quickly altering {industry} – and the way the United States, whereas nonetheless comfortably the world’s largest market, is turning into more and more much less dominant world participant.
In reality, now MBW has forged our eye over the total Luminate Midyear Report (obtain it right here), we’d counsel one factor particularly sings out:
Any music firm that continues to be fixated on making ‘right here at this time, gone tomorrow’ hits for the US chart… could need to query the long-term advantage of this technique.
Listed here are the conclusions from the Luminate report that led us to this summation.
Conclusion 1: The US market will quickly make up lower than 1 / 4 of worldwide streams
We already knew that the US market was beginning to lose its standing because the runaway king of streaming.
The IFPI‘s newest International Music Report, issued earlier this yr, advised us so: it revealed that the US, mixed with Canada, noticed its annual share of worldwide commerce revenues fall to 40.3% in 2024 – down from 41.6% simply two years prior.
This, nonetheless, didn’t inform us what’s taking place to music consumption.
With the USA’s per-stream royalties considerably larger than these in different components of the world, the commerce revenues metric arguably downplays how dramatic the shift in precise worldwide fan conduct has change into.
“We’re observing the continued enlargement of worldwide streaming, considerably pushed by ex-U.S. markets.”
Rob Jonas, Luminate
In accordance with Luminate’s new report, complete on-demand audio streams within the first half of 2025 within the USA stood at 696.6 million.
That was up 4.6% YoY.
But, audio streams exterior the US jumped by a a lot larger margin — up by 12.6% YoY to 1.8 trillion.
Luminate CEO, Rob Jonas, mentioned: “We’re observing the continued enlargement of worldwide streaming, considerably pushed by ex-U.S. markets.”
He ain’t kidding.
Under, based mostly on MBW’s assessment of historic information, you’ll be able to see how the USA’s world market share of complete audio streams has considerably fallen – down from 43.4% in 2019 to simply 27.9% in H1 2025.
The USA’s market share of worldwide audio streaming quantity is on the right track to fall beneath 1 / 4 (25%) within the subsequent yr or two.
Conclusion 2: The persevering with loss of life of the megahit (!)
The above explains how the USA is dropping world market share.
However what in regards to the market share of the most well-liked music inside the USA?
Primarily based on mid-year information, it confirmed how the USA’s High 10 largest tracks of the interval have been claiming a a lot smaller total market share than they as soon as did.
The explanation: listener conduct was turning into unfold throughout many extra tracks, from many extra artists, than was as soon as the case.
The newest Luminate information reveals this development hasn’t reversed.
The most important monitor within the USA within the first half of the yr was Luther by Kendrick Lamar and SZA.
It racked up 530.4 million audio streams within the Jan-June interval, says Luminate.
A hefty quantity of performs, for certain – however a smaller complete quantity than the most important hits of H1 2023 (Morgan Wallen), H1 2020 (Roddy Ricch), H1 2019 (Lil Nas X), and H1 2018 (Drake).
In the meantime, based on Luminate, the USA’s High 10 largest audio streaming tracks mixed in H1 2025 racked up 3.62 billion performs.
In accordance with MBW’s calculations, that was truly down, in quantity phrases, on the equal figures from H1 2024 (3.76 billion) and H1 2023 (3.89 billion) – see beneath.
Luminate’s H1 2025 checklist of the High 10 largest audio streaming tracks within the USA. (Supply: Luminate)
Right here’s the essential stat on this part: the USA’s High 10 tracks in H1 2025 claimed a half-a-percent share of the market’s complete audio streams (0.52%).
Return only a few years, and the equal stat was as excessive as 1.6% (see beneath).
Conclusion 3: In with the Previous, out with the New….
So we’ve demonstrated (see: Conclusion 1) that the USA is dropping market share of world streams, and that (see: Conclusion 2), the most important chart tracks throughout the USA are dropping market share of nationwide streams.
However what about that warning over ‘right here at this time, gone tomorrow’ tracks on the US chart?
This requires nuance.
When a report firm or artist has a monitor like Luther by Kendrick Lamar (or certainly Not Like Us or TV Off, which each additionally made H1 2025’s High 10), they are often assured, what with the standard and cultural cachet of the artist, that they’re creating ‘evergreen catalog tracks’ which shall be streamed lengthy into the longer term.
But when a label or artist is creating novelty tracks that may get listened to in 2025, however not in, say, 2029, 2039, or 2049?
That’s turning into a a lot tougher recreation.
In accordance with Luminate’s new report, tracks youthful than 18 months previous (‘present’ releases) have been streamed 168.5 billion occasions within the first half of 2025.
That was down in quantity phrases by 3.3% YoY vs. the identical interval of 2024, when ‘present’ tracks racked up 174.3 billion streams.
To reiterate: ‘present’ music within the USA is seeing its complete performs decline, even because the market’s total streams develop.
Whipping out MBW’s calculator for a second, the above stats appear to point:
(a) ‘Present’ tracks claimed a mere 24.2% market share of complete US audio streams in H1 2025; and
(b) ‘Catalog’ tracks (these older than 18 months) claimed a whopping 75.8% market share.
Or, in less complicated phrases: Lower than 1 / 4 of each stream within the US today is of a ‘present’ launch.
Probably the most notable decline in ‘present’ launch recognition is going on within the ‘Hip-hop/R&B’ style.
In accordance with Luminate’s report, complete on-demand audio streams of ‘present’ Hip-hop/R&B releases have been down by 9.2% YoY in H1 2025 – a real-terms drop of 3.7 billion performs vs. H1 2024.
Regardless of this, ‘Hip-hop/R&B’ stays the USA’s No.1 style total, with 24.6% of complete audio streams out there within the first half of this yr.
That was down on 25.8% within the prior-year interval.
In the meantime, the ‘Rock’ style continues to realize floor.
The USA’s second-biggest style on audio streaming in H1 2025, it grew market share to 17.7% vs. 17.3% within the prior-year interval.Music Enterprise Worldwide
