The Pittsburgh Steelers have stocked up on the tight finish place, including Jonnu Smith by way of commerce to a room that already had Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington. Many thought the staff wanted one other playmaker, assuming it might be a large receiver, however Smith is the following transfer on the chess board. Coming off a Professional Bowl season (changing Travis Kelce), this was a simple dot join with ties to Steelers OC Arthur Smith and his excessive utilization of tight ends. In the present day, the objective is to take a look at 12 and 13 personnel utilization (variety of RBs, TEs), and likewise goal charges to the place for brand spanking new QB Aaron Rodgers and Pittsburgh for comparability.
Lets begin with a visible of 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TEs), viewing utilization and success charges:
Immediately, we see why the query was posed on a latest episode of The Horrible Podcast with the 2024 Steelers utilizing 13 personnel way over any staff in our sights. Pittsburgh used the scheme at 35-percent per Sports activities Data Options (SIS), which led the NFL final season. Their success price was below-the-line although, and is smart why the staff needed to improve the place.
Even in 2023 (pre-Arthur Smith), the staff had a 23-percent 13 personnel utilization price which ranked third that season and way over the prior two seasons. That grouping additionally fared higher, with a 42-percent success price (seventh), the strongest rank of targeted groups. Indicators level to the excessive utilization of 13 personnel persevering with and hopefully again to a stronger latest success price.
Comparatively, Rodgers offenses haven’t used the scheme practically as a lot. One exception is 2018, when the Packers used 13 personnel at 15-percent, which ranked seventh that yr. That was seven years in the past although, and we will see from the visible that each different yr (excluding 2023, just one cross try) was under a 10-percent utilization price.
There have been some profitable seasons although, every tying for the perfect success price of the groups in our sights: 2018, 2019, and importantly, final yr. High quality is after all the selection if pressured to decide on, however the huge query is the way it will look with the Black and Gold, who appear poised to make use of it typically in 2025.
Now for the same view of 12 personnel (1RB, 2 TEs):
On the highest proper, we see Rodgers had three seasons of above the imply utilization and success with the Packers. These got here in 2018, 2021, and 2022, with the perfect 49-percent success price within the latter. Had profitable performs practically half the time every of these years, and utilizing it typically is kind of encouraging. The 2024 Steelers had a comparable 47-percent success price in 12 personnel.
Hopefully Rodgers brings these outcomes to Pittsburgh versus final season with the Jets that also used the scheme typically, however tied for the least success at 40-percent with Pittsburgh in 2023. The hope for the 2025 Steelers is essentially the most stocked cabinet at tight finish, arguably of Rodgers’ profession, and may result in sturdy outcomes.
This begs the query of who Rodgers had at his disposal. Listed here are focused tight ends he had per season:
2024: Tyler Conklin, Jeremy Ruckert, Kenny Yeboah
2023: (Rodgers injured)
2022: Robert Tonyan, Josiah Deguara, Marcedes Lewis, Tyler Davis
2021: Josiah Deguara, Marcedes Lewis, Robert Tonyan, Tyler Davis, Dominique Dafney
2020: Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis, Jace Sternberger, Josiah Deguara, Dominique Dafney
2019: Jimmy Graham, Marcedes Lewis, Robert Tonyan, Jace Sternberger
2018: Jimmy Graham, Lance Kendricks, Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis
We see that Rodgers has had expertise. 2018 was the perfect steadiness of utilization and success in each 12 and 13 personnel, which arguably was the strongest roster at tight finish within the span. Whereas it nonetheless must play out on the sector within the Metal Metropolis, the information factors to optimism for the 2025 Steelers tight ends.
Lastly, listed here are goal charges for the TE place over the past decade:
Since 2018, Pittsburgh clearly had extra tight finish targets in two seasons notably: 2022 and final yr in 2024. Each had been simply above a 24-percent goal price, rating fourth in TE makes an attempt in 2022, however thirteenth in 2024. This emphasizes targets have elevated just lately on the place throughout the league, and seems the Steelers plan to do the identical.
Alongside these strains, it shocked me to see how low the opposite 5 seasons for Pittsburgh had been, sans the injury-riddled QB season that was 2019. Even with the retired Ben Roethlisberger, who was throwing it all around the yard in three of these years, tight finish targets had been nearer to common. As you’d count on, his tight ends prime to backside weren’t as sturdy as the present unit.
The outcomes on Rodgers had been decrease than anticipated, under 18-percent in 6-of-7 seasons I studied. Once more, 2018 exhibits up because the constructive outlier when Rodgers focused his arguably greatest TE room of the span at 19.4-percent. This suits the plain expectation going into the research. If the tight ends are deep and a energy of the staff, then excessive utilization and success doubtless follows.
This aligns with the way in which Pittsburgh’s roster is constructed, together with scheme and targets that includes the place much more general the final three years. Anticipate a number of TEs to be on the sector typically. The large query is will it result in higher high quality? Time will inform.
