. . . Firearms researcher John Lott reminds us, too, that rifles, per se, just like the AR-15, are concerned in solely a fraction of those incidents. His evaluation of such taking pictures incidents happening between 1998 and 2024 finds that in solely 17.3 % of them did the perpetrator use “solely rifles of any kind.” Greater than half — 51.9 % — “used solely handguns.” If this analysis is any information, legislators’ give attention to the AR-15 would look like misplaced.
“Any kind of rifle accounts for lower than 3% of murders within the U.S.,” Mr. Lott tells us, “and that share fell as possession of AR-15s and AK-47s has elevated.” He provides that between 1994 and 2004, when the so-called assault weapon ban was in impact by way of federal regulation, “the share of mass shootings involving assault weapons really rose, then declined after the ban expired.” These findings serve to undermine the rationale for legislative bans on firearms. . . .
An economist and president of the Crime Analysis Heart, John Lott, tells the Solar that though violent crime did rise in recent times, solely 40 % had been really reported to police.
“Why did violent crime proceed to rise? Two most important causes stand out: arrest and conviction charges dropped, and the U.S. skilled a huge inflow of unlawful aliens throughout that point,” he mentioned. “That pattern could now be reversing.” . . .
Mr. Lott additionally famous that whole violent crime is falling on account of “harder enforcement by many native governments.
“I additionally suspect that felony unlawful aliens are extra cautious than earlier than. They now know that getting arrested is more likely to lead to deportation — in contrast to in the course of the Biden administration when enforcement was far weaker,” he mentioned. . . .
Mr. Lott agreed that the rejection of such prosecutors issues.
“Progressive district attorneys nationwide, from New York to Chicago to Los Angeles, had been downgrading felonies to misdemeanors. Current numbers present that Manhattan’s progressive DA downgraded felonies to lesser fees 60 % of the time; and, of that 60 %, 89 % had been downgraded to misdemeanors,” Mr. Lott mentioned.
Stories point out that in 2023, Manhattan District Legal professional Alvin Bragg’s workplace downgraded roughly 60 % of felony circumstances to lesser fees. Of those downgraded circumstances, about 89% had been diminished to misdemeanors. Particularly, 938 felony circumstances had been downgraded, with 834 leading to misdemeanor fees. . . .
However the DEI push additionally hit house for security of Individuals in their very own cities.Police and hearth departments had been compelled to rent subpar candidates, with slashed pay, and created an entire mess of points.
John Lott of the Crime Prevention Analysis Heart says one of many greatest issues was removing intelligence checks.
“The forms of individuals you could have usually are not in a position to fill out police stories…that in flip creates issues for prosecutions,” he says. . . .
“Loads of these insurance policies had been already form of locked in…it’s troublesome to undo what has already been performed,” says Lott. . . .
In jurisdictions the place firearms are legally carried, equivalent to in lots of American states, research usually present that law-abiding residents act as a deterrent to crime, not a contributor to it. For example, a 2017 examine by John Lott discovered that states with permissive hid carry legal guidelines noticed reductions in violent crime charges, suggesting that an armed populace can improve, relatively than undermine, public security. . . .
Dr. John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Analysis Heart (CPRC), printed an Op-Ed within the Wall Avenue Journal titled, “The Media Say Crime Is Going Down. Don’t Consider It: The decline in reported crimes is a operate of much less reporting, not much less crime.” . . .
. . . John R. Lott Jr., an economist and a famend skilled and creator on weapons and crime, doesn’t purchase the assertions put forth by Democratic leaders. His latest article on the web site of conservative information outlet “American Greatness” titled “Crime Charges of Unlawful Migrants Underreported” underscored this level.
Whether or not crime is actually falling amid a surge in unlawful immigration relies on which information supply is used, in line with Lott. Whereas FBI statistics replicate solely crimes reported to regulation enforcement companies, the Division of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics tracks whole crime, together with incidents not reported to police. Per these broader statistics, whole crime elevated sharply in 2021, 2022, and 2023. This was the most important proportion bounce of any three-year interval on report, coinciding with a big inflow of unlawful immigrants.
A serious problem in analyzing these traits is the problem authorities companies have in precisely figuring out unlawful immigrants inside their databases. For instance, errors within the Nationwide Immediate Legal Background Examine System (NICS), which is designed to bar non-citizens with felony data from buying firearms, spotlight how unreliable these data could be.
There may be additionally extra specific information connecting unlawful immigration to crime. Prior to now yr, the Biden administration acknowledged that 9% of “non-detained” unlawful immigrants launched into the nation—about “662,566 out of seven.4 million”—had felony histories. Notably, this determine largely displays people who voluntarily surrendered on the border. It doesn’t embrace the estimated 2 million “gotaways” who crossed the border undetected in the course of the Biden administration, nor the unknown numbers who evaded detection totally. . . .
José Niño, “Unlawful Immigrants Do Elevate Crime Charges,” American Free Press, June 13, 2025.
Whereas the controversy between gun prohibitionists and Second Modification advocates will proceed maybe the story is finest advised with different statistics, from the Crime Prevention Analysis Heart.
“After a spike in 2022,” the CPRC reported final December, “the variety of Hid Carry Allow holders throughout america fell for a second consecutive yr. The determine now stands at 21.46 million – a 1.8% drop since final yr. A serious reason behind the continual decline is that 29 states now have Constitutional Carry legal guidelines after Louisiana permitting permitless carry, efficient July 4, 2024. In different phrases, 46.8% of Individuals (157.6 million) now stay in Constitutional Carry States, with 67.7% of the land within the nation (2.57 million sq. miles).”
Breaking it down, the middle additionally reported:
■ 8.2% of American adults have permits. Exterior of the restrictive states of California and New York, about 9.8% of adults have a allow.
■ In sixteen states, greater than 10% of adults have permits. Oregon has fallen barely under 10% this yr. Indiana has the best hid carry price — 23.1%. Alabama is second with 20.5%, and Colorado is third with 17.7%.
■ 5 states now have over 1 million allow holders: Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Texas. Florida is the highest states with 2.46 million permits. Alabama has fallen under 1 million allow holders this yr, nevertheless it has turn out to be a Constitutional Carry state since January 1, 2023, that means that individuals now not want a allow to hold. . . .
The usage of state permits for a Brady Regulation or NICS verify (Some Brady Checks are performed underneath state authority) is an efficient step in the correct path. Famous researcher John Lott notes that many NICS checks are false positives, which wrongly deprive harmless individuals of the correct, protected by the Second Modification, of buying firearms. The ready intervals in some states, equivalent to California, are being challenged within the courts as an infringement on rights protected by the Second Modification.
There may be a minimum of one problem towards the federal prohibition on buying handguns throughout state traces, even when each states would approve the acquisition. The NICS system wants a critical overhaul. It’s designed to disclaim purchases. It makes use of broad standards. A lot better business methods are in place that enable faster, extra optimistic identifications. . . .
A latest examine reveals that over half of U.S. states now allow residents to hold hid weapons and not using a allow, marking a substantial shift in gun possession practices. The analysis, spearheaded by John R. Lott of the Crime Prevention Analysis Heart, signifies that whereas the variety of hid carry permits is dropping, the general variety of individuals carrying hid weapons is rising, significantly amongst ladies and racial minorities in city areas. At present, 27 states have adopted “constitutional carry,” which is predicted to cut back crime by enabling extra people to hold firearms for self-protection.
Lott’s findings spotlight a lower in hid carry permits from 8.9% in 2022 to eight.4% in 2023, regardless of a Supreme Courtroom ruling which eradicated strict allow necessities. Notably, allow statistics present disparities in demographics, with states like Indiana seeing larger charges amongst city residents in comparison with neighboring Illinois, the place monetary limitations limit entry. As this pattern continues, specialists warn that weakening public carry legal guidelines might correlate with elevated violence, elevating issues amongst gun management advocates on the implications for future crime charges. . . .
Workers, “Permitless Hid Carry Expands Throughout US,” Gun Every day Information, June 3, 2025.
A brand new nationwide survey commissioned by the Crime Prevention Analysis Heart (CPRC) and performed by McLaughlin & Associates has revealed a big disconnect between public notion and precise crime information involving unlawful immigrants. Regardless of years of border chaos and rising crime charges, a majority of voters nonetheless consider unlawful aliens are much less seemingly to commit crimes than U.S. residents.
Within the April 29, 2025 survey of 1,000 seemingly voters, solely 33.3% mentioned unlawful immigrants commit crime at a better price than Americans. Against this, 41.6% mentioned they don’t, and 25.1% mentioned they weren’t positive. . . .
CPRC President John Lott Jr., mentioned, “In non-gun-free zones, the place civilians are legally in a position to carry weapons, hid carry allow holders stopped 51.5% of energetic shootings, in comparison with 44.6% stopped by police, CPRC present in a deep dive into energetic shooter eventualities between 2014 and 2023.”
Lott mentioned, “Not solely do allow holders reach stopping energetic shooters at a better price, however regulation enforcement officers face considerably higher dangers when intervening. Our analysis discovered police had been almost six occasions extra more likely to be killed and 17 % extra more likely to be wounded than armed civilians.”
Lott mentioned that these numbers paint a fuller image than the FBI’s crime statistics, which fail to incorporate lots of the defensive gun makes use of his group has cataloged. However the issue with the FBI’s crime statistics isn’t simply the errors of their reported information ‚Äî additionally they fail to deal with helpful questions, like how hid handgun allow holders examine to regulation enforcement. Kash Patel and Dan Bongino face a serious problem in reforming how the information is collected and reported on the FBI, Lott mentioned.
From 2014 to 2023, CPRC researchers discovered that armed civilians stopped 180 of 515 energetic taking pictures circumstances. Of the assaults in locations the place individuals had been allowed to hold, CPRC discovered that let holders stopped 158 of the 307 situations. The FBI defines an “energetic taking pictures” as an occasion the place a person actively makes an attempt to kill individuals in a public place ‚Äî excluding shootings tied to robberies or gang violence. An “energetic taking pictures” might be so simple as a single shot fired at a lone human goal, even when the shooter misses, to a mass taking pictures.
Lott mentioned, “The Crime Prevention Analysis Heart’s findings inform a really completely different story than the narrative you’ll see within the company press.”
Of the 180 whole situations the place an armed civilian stopped an energetic taking pictures, did allow holders find yourself unintentionally taking pictures bystanders? In only one case, Lott mentioned, or 0.56 %. . . .
