The quarterback conundrum stays for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Aaron Rodgers continues to take his time making his resolution, and the tea leaves level to probability he leads to the Metal Metropolis. It’s not official till it’s, although. At present’s objective is to see what Mason Rudolph, at the moment on the high of the depth chart, provided final season in Tennessee in comparison with Rodgers and 2024 Steeler Russell Wilson for context.
First, I wished to debate amount. After a particularly shortened 2023 (solely two dropbacks) attributable to an Achilles harm, Rodgers performed in all 17 video games and had 584 makes an attempt, second-most within the NFL. That is a vital a part of his 2024 resume, contemplating the 41-year-old isn’t getting any youthful, and the seriousness of the harm he recovered from.
The opposite quarterbacks in our sights performed a lot much less in 2024. Wilson missed six video games to start the 12 months with a calf harm, and had 396 dropbacks, rating twenty fifth out of the 39 qualifying QBs on this article (min. 250 dropbacks).
Rudolph had 256 dropbacks in 2024 for Tennessee, rating thirty seventh (third-least). That’s his second-most dropbacks in a season for his five-year profession, solely to 2019 as a rookie when Pittsburgh was harm plagued on the place. Rudolph has 753 profession common season dropbacks, whereas Rodgers (9,275) and Wilson (7,122) clearly have the expertise edge.
Whereas inconsistent, Rudolph did present constructive flashes in his first stint in Pittsburgh previous to his lone season with the Titans. The Steelers reportedly had a first-round grade on him in that draft class, clearly liking his potential. So, go along with a extra recognized commodity in Rodgers, or the projection in Rudolph?
Let’s dive into some latest stats. Listed here are 2024 completion share and adjusted completion charge (share of aimed passes thrown on the right track):
All three quarterbacks had been under the imply in completion share in 2024. Rudolph really had the slight edge at 64 % (twenty third), practically similar to Wilson at twenty fourth (63.7). They had been additionally eerily comparable in adjusted completion charge, with Wilson’s 77.6 transferring all the way in which as much as Tenth-best, and Rudolph’s 77.0 coming in at thirteenth.
This emphasizes that each quarterbacks had supporting solid points, with Wilson and Rudolph having notably sturdy seasons when it comes to accuracy. Rodgers then again lands under the imply in each, with a twenty fourth ranked 73.7 adjusted completion charge and was thirty second in general completion %.
The objective of adjusted completion charge is to take away components (specifically drops/throwaways) that unfairly ding a QBs completion charge, and Rodgers bottoms the record of gamers we’re centered on. If it weren’t for Colts QB Anthony Richardson’s extraordinarily poor numbers that “broke” the chart, it might look even uglier for Rodgers.
There’s one other aspect that jumps out from 2024. Listed here are huge time throw (move with glorious ball location and timing, typically downfield and/or tight window) and turnover-worthy play charges (poor job of taking good care of the ball, aka interceptable move/fumbling):
That is an instance of Rudolph missing the place the veterans excelled. Wilson was the most effective deep-ball passers within the NFL final season, and far of his profession. That is an space that may very well be missed probably the most in 2025. We see that Rogers had an above the imply 4.2 huge time throw charge (T-Sixteenth), a drop-off from Wilson’s 5.7 (fifth), however offering extra worth than a number of friends together with Rudolph.
The latter was close to the underside of the ranks, with a 2.4 huge time throw charge that tied for thirty fifth (third-worst). This aligns along with his potential to do sufficient to win you video games, however much less wow performs to this point which might be best from a beginning QB.
Whereas to not the identical extent, Mason Rudolph was additionally worst of the group in turnover-worthy play charge (2.9), barely touchdown above the imply. That definitely received’t fly in Pittsburgh, with how a lot of an onus head coach Mike Tomlin places on taking good care of the soccer. That was the most effective aspects of the veterans 2024 seasons, with Wilson rating third and Rodgers and fifth-best.
If Rodgers to Pittsburgh involves fruition, this is without doubt one of the best dot connections to it being match. It’s not all sunshine and rainbows although, and most followers would agree the holding sample Rodgers has the Steelers in is exhausting. They only wish to know a solution both manner.
The projection of how 2025 may look has to lean Rodgers’ manner, given his profession resume. However he hasn’t been the long run Corridor of Famer for a number of years now. In actual fact, Wilson was higher in a number of points of play in 2024 with Pittsburgh in his thirteenth season.
Rodgers is approaching 12 months 20 (if he certainly performs), so a number of arrows level to it being unlikely for a turnaround. The optimistic aspect is Pittsburgh has been extra profitable as a workforce, and it may look higher for both Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph than their 2024 seasons.
With all the things in thoughts, together with a number of the antics that include Rodgers, I personally would have most popular a distinct possibility from the get-go. However right here we’re in June, with every week of OTAs within the books and nonetheless no reply.
The place we sit as we speak, beginning Mason Rudolph in 2025 would really give him a shot to show he was well worth the first-round grade the Steelers had on him. If it goes properly, nice. If not, it aids their positioning for the 2026 draft in Pittsburgh. They’re already loading up on picks, so that might additionally make sense.
Sure, it would make for a painful 2025, however it might probably assist the Steelers discover their franchise quarterback sooner. This can be a should in as we speak’s NFL, and the choices for Pittsburgh this offseason had been stale after transferring on from Wilson and Justin Fields (who I’d have most popular).
Managing the QB place has clearly been a weak spot for Pittsburgh as of late. It sadly may result in extra of the identical this season within the Metal Metropolis. Nevertheless, it probably wouldn’t be the worst factor in the long term if they will study from their errors and get it proper in 2026.
