One of many underrated accomplishments of Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential run was that he criticized fellow Republicans for his or her international coverage errors and lived to inform the story. When Rep. Ron Paul (R–Texas) ran for president in 2008 and 2012, he was booed repeatedly for criticizing the Iraq Struggle and different neoconservative international coverage positions and he finally light from the race.
In 2016, in contrast, Trump repeatedly slammed the George W. Bush administration for the Iraq Struggle, calling it “an enormous, fats mistake” and declaring that “we should always have by no means been in Iraq.” Trump additionally acquired some boos however nonetheless received the nomination at the same time as he blasted U.S. international coverage as too war-prone. By the tip of that GOP main season, even New York Occasions columnists had been famously proclaiming that Trump could possibly be a extra dovish president than Hillary Clinton.
When Trump ran for president once more in 2024, he articulated equally dovish themes. He blasted his former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley as a “warmonger“; he advocated speaking with authoritarian leaders similar to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Kim Jong Un; and he repeatedly declared that solely he might avert World Struggle III. His vice presidential nominee, J.D. Vance, maintained that Trump was “the candidate of peace.”
However within the first 100 days of Trump’s second time period—when not roiling the worldwide financial system with tariffs—he has talked an terrible lot about absorbing extra territory no matter how the occupants of that territory really feel about it. In his second inaugural deal with, the president pledged that the USA could be a rustic that “expands our territory.” A few of Trump’s defenders tried to elucidate away that clause as a reference to area exploration, however that excuse has develop into much less and fewer believable.
In simply his first two months in workplace, Trump has repeatedly and insistently declared his curiosity in annexing Greenland, absorbing Canada, occupying Gaza, reclaiming the Panama Canal, mining uncommon earths in Ukraine, and unilaterally utilizing drive in Mexico. None of this sounds significantly dovish or useful in averting World Struggle III.
A few of Trump’s extra batshit ideas—like sending the U.S. army to occupy Gaza—is likely to be written off as pipe goals. His repeated emphasis on territorial growth, nevertheless, can’t be dismissed so simply. The president’s earlier statements and first-term report assist clarify his obsession with increasing America’s borders.
First, Trump has all the time possessed a mercantilist, zero-sum view of world politics and the worldwide financial system. In that mindset, extra territory is healthier than much less.
Second, Trump believes that peace among the many nice powers will be achieved by means of spheres of affect. This implies conceding components of the globe to Russia and China—whereas increasing U.S. management over the Western hemisphere.
Third, altering territorial boundaries transgresses all kinds of worldwide norms—and Trump loves transgressing.
Lastly, Trump needs to emulate the leaders he admires. Putin and Xi are additionally into increasing their territorial management.
However the fashionable world operates otherwise from how Trump thinks it really works. What might need labored within the 18th century is out of date within the twenty first. In making an attempt to manifest his imaginative and prescient board of an expansionist United States, Trump is undermining key strategic pillars which have bolstered the free world for many years. If Trump achieves any of his desired territorial positive factors, the USA is likely to be bigger. However it’ll even be poorer and radically extra insecure.
Trump’s Expansionist Targets
Does Trump truly intend to develop U.S. borders? Whereas he is talked quite a bit about territorial growth since profitable in 2024, it was not a distinguished a part of his marketing campaign rhetoric. He bobs and weaves a lot in his public statements that generally it appears the one certainty is that Trump likes uncertainty. Experiences that he proposed swapping Puerto Rico for Greenland had been dismissed as both absurd or naive. Can his more moderen musings even be discounted as a madman gambit?
Trump has all the time been an actual property man. He likes to personal land. He did give hints about his curiosity in territorial growth and useful resource extraction previous to his second inauguration. Way back to 2011, he talked in regards to the alleged have to “take the oil” from Iraq, arguing that we might be “reimbursing ourselves” for the trillions of {dollars} spent on the Iraq Struggle. Throughout his first time period, Trump’s consolation stage with redrawing sovereign borders was increased than that of another postwar president. His administration acknowledged Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights. To safe Morocco’s participation within the Abraham Accords, his administration acknowledged that nation’s annexation of Western Sahara. Aside from Israel, the USA stays the one nation to acknowledge each annexations.
Trump’s second-term rhetoric and actions about territorial growth have been constant and protracted sufficient to rattle treaty allies. Panamanian officers have been on edge since Trump began loudly complaining that China controls the Canal Zone. (China doesn’t management the Canal Zone.) In March he advised Congress, “My administration can be reclaiming the Panama Canal, and we have already began doing it,” inflicting the president of Panama to problem a public denial. In January there have been a number of studies of a tense 45-minute telephone dialog between Trump and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, throughout which Trump issued quite a lot of coercive threats to stress Denmark into ceding Greenland to the USA. One European official briefed on the decision advised the Monetary Occasions, “Earlier than, it was onerous to take it critically. However I do assume it’s critical, and probably very harmful.” In his first joint deal with to Congress, Trump declared of Greenland, “Somehow, we will get it.”
The identical dynamic has performed out with Canada. Nearly instantly after Trump received his second time period, he talked about Canada changing into the 51st state and derisively referred to then–Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “Governor.” Canadian officers together with Trudeau at first nervously laughed off Trump’s rhetoric.
That modified after Trump was sworn in and began threatening tariffs, following by means of on his pledge to make use of “financial drive” to stress Canada into an Anschluss with the USA. White Home press secretary Karoline Leavitt has repeatedly urged that the one manner for Canada to keep away from tariffs is to develop into the 51st state. In keeping with The New York Occasions, Trump advised Trudeau in February that he didn’t settle for the 1908 treaty demarcating the border between the 2 nations and needed to revise it, together with how lakes and rivers between the 2 nations could be ruled.
Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick defined to the Canadian finance minister that Trump was fascinated with exiting the raft of agreements that ruled the bilateral relationship. By March, throughout his final week in workplace, Trudeau advised the Canadian press that Trump is threatening tariffs as a result of “what he needs is to see a complete collapse of the Canadian financial system, as a result of that’ll make it simpler to annex us.”
Possibly Trump is bluffing when he threatens to annex parts of Panama, Canada, and Denmark. However the management of all three longstanding U.S. allies appear to assume that he’s critical, inflicting a dramatic downturn of U.S. standing in these three nations. It additionally jibes with behind-the-scenes reporting of Trump wanting a portray of James Polk—president through the largest growth of U.S. territory in American historical past—hanging within the Oval Workplace. In keeping with The Wall Avenue Journal, Trump has advised guests that Polk “received loads of land.”
Why, precisely, is Trump so desirous to develop America’s territory?
Trump the Mercantilist
Again in January 2016, The Brookings Establishment’s Thomas Wright authored in Politico one of many earliest and most correct assessments of how Trump thinks about worldwide relations. Wright concluded, opposite to most international coverage observers on the time, that Trump “has a remarkably coherent and constant worldview” with three tenets.
First, Trump is deeply skeptical of the liberal worldwide order that embraced globalization and the community of U.S. alliances. He believes commerce deficits are an indication of financial weak spot.
Second, he believes U.S. allies have cheated the USA out of billions of {dollars} by operating commerce surpluses and never paying sufficient for their very own protection.
Third, Trump’s sympathies are with international strongmen who he believes are powerful and agency and get what they need in world politics. The outcome, wrote Wright, is “a worldview that makes an awesome leap backward in historical past, embracing antiquated notions of energy that have not been prevalent since previous to World Struggle II.”
The entire level of worldwide commerce is that it might probably generate win-win outcomes the place either side profit. Trump embodies the opposite doctrine that predated Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations: mercantilism. Mercantilists believed that prosperity requires commerce surpluses—promoting extra throughout nationwide borders than you purchase—which in flip would allegedly increase the facility of the state.
Mercantilists of the preindustrial period insisted states that ran commerce surpluses would be capable of afford the massive standing armies that had been the norm in a violent seventeenth century. Josiah Little one, a number one seventeenth century mercantilist, made this level repeatedly: “Overseas commerce produces riches, riches energy, energy preserves our commerce and faith.”
Trump’s 2017 inaugural declaration that “safety will result in nice prosperity and power” matches with that antiquated imaginative and prescient. Moreover, if one believes commerce is a zero-sum competitors and the world an unsafe place, territorial growth is smart. The worldwide distribution of territory is undeniably a zero-sum recreation; the extra one acquires, the much less territory is on the market for any competitor. Mercantilists imagine in free commerce inside one’s sovereign territory.
After threatening tariffs on Canada this previous March, for instance, Trump posted on social media that the “solely factor that is smart is for Canada to develop into our cherished Fifty First State. This may make all Tariffs, and every thing else, completely disappear.” Increasing territory creates a bigger inner market, which each mercantilists and classical economists agree results in a extra productive nationwide financial system. Mercantilists like Trump will all the time want territorial growth to extra worldwide commerce, believing growth is the trail to energy and lots.
The geopolitical advantages of territorial growth are tied into Trump’s want to forge a great-power peace with China and Russia. Trump admires different nice powers, and to evaluate from his rhetoric he views Russia and China as the one different states that really matter in world politics.
This may be seen most clearly in how Trump has tried to barter a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The brand new administration has been very keen and desirous to strong-arm Ukraine into quite a lot of territorial and tactical concessions. In distinction, Trump has been deferential towards Russia. Recall that through the now-infamous Oval Workplace assembly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump requested a reporter, “You need me to say actually horrible issues about Putin after which say, ‘Hello Vladimir, how we doing on the deal?'” 5 minutes later, Trump was saying horrible issues about Zelenskyy to his face.
All through his first time period and the primary 100 days of his second time period, Trump has demonstrated flexibility with respect to how different nice powers deal with their periphery. Whereas members of his Cupboard protested China’s authoritarian crackdowns throughout his first time period, Trump himself signaled to Xi that he would chorus from criticizing Xi’s actions in Hong Kong and Xinjiang within the curiosity of securing a bilateral commerce deal.
Regardless of imposing tariffs on China, there may be persistent hypothesis that second-term Trump is looking for a grand cut price with Beijing, a lot as he desired throughout his first time period. Trump additionally urged throughout his first time period that Crimea was traditionally a part of Russia. In 2025 Trump has reportedly proposed that the USA acknowledge Russia’s annexation of Crimea and urge the United Nations to do the identical in return for an finish to the warfare in Ukraine.
How does this connect with Trump’s personal territorial ambitions? All these statements are indicators that Trump believes in nice powers divvying up the world’s property, as Monica Duffy Toft, my colleague at Tufts College’s Fletcher College, argued not too long ago: “In the present day’s geopolitical panorama significantly resembles the shut of World Struggle II, when U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and Soviet chief Joseph Stalin sought to divide Europe into spheres of affect….If Putin, U.S. President Donald Trump, and Chinese language President Xi Jinping had been to achieve a casual consensus that energy issues greater than ideological variations, they’d be echoing Yalta by figuring out the sovereignty and way forward for close by neighbors.”
On this situation, Trump could be chopping a deal during which Russia and China might develop their very own spheres of affect. In return, the USA would have free rein over the Western Hemisphere. This may empower Trump to make use of America’s army and financial energy to redraw the map, increasing into Greenland, the Panama Canal Zone, and, oh sure, Canada.
These actions would violate a welter of worldwide treaties to which the USA is a signatory. For Trump, nevertheless, such authorized impunity could be a bonus somewhat than a hindrance. His political superpower has all the time been to violate norms and legal guidelines after which emerge unscathed. If redrawing world borders helps to foster some sort of peaceable nice energy live performance, Trump might plausibly argue that his outside-the-box considering helped to cut back world tensions whereas increasing America’s dimension.
Putin’s forcible acquisition of Crimea in 2014 triggered his ballot numbers in Russia to skyrocket regardless of the financial deprivations brought on by the following warfare. Nationalism performs properly, and redrawing the map is a world-historical act that burnishes a frontrunner’s historic legacy. This lesson has not been misplaced on Trump. In keeping with a Wall Avenue Journal report: “Trump stays critical about rising the nation throughout his time within the White Home. He views it as part of his legacy, 5 individuals who have spoken to him say.” If Trump might achieve increasing U.S. territory, maybe present residents and future historians will look kindly upon him as properly.
Maybe the mixed efforts of China, Russia, and the USA can shift norms about territorial borders again to the Age of Empires. However the thought any of this can profit the USA is nuts.
Annexation Speak Results in Resistance
In 1917 the USA bought the U.S. Virgin Islands from Denmark for $25 million—the most costly buy of territory per sq. mile in American historical past. It has been greater than a century since the USA annexed any territory within the Western Hemisphere. Certainly, the overarching world development for the reason that finish of World Struggle I has been for states to shed territory somewhat than add it. When the U.S. acquired the Virgin Islands, fewer than 60 sovereign nations existed. Greater than a century later, the disintegration of empires and subsequent waves of decolonization have pushed that quantity near 200.
The basic driver for this improve is the secular surge in nationalism. Nations and people who have any historical past of independence or autonomy normally don’t wish to relinquish it, whatever the materials penalties. It’s due to this fact not shocking that Trump’s rhetoric about shopping for Greenland and absorbing Canada haven’t gone over properly with the native populations.
In mid-March Greenland held elections—and Qulleq, probably the most pro-American social gathering of the bunch, didn’t garner sufficient votes for a seat within the parliament. All the foremost events in Greenland categorically rejected annexation by the USA. When Vance visited Greenland in late March, his preliminary plan to talk to supportive locals was scrubbed—as a result of there have been no native supporters. One might argue the U.S. army might simply management the island if push got here to shove. However except Trump was ready to make use of drive in opposition to the 56,000 native residents, such an effort would show extraordinarily messy.
An identical dynamic has performed out in Canada. Previous to Trump’s chatter about Canada changing into the 51st state, Conservative Get together chief Pierre Poilievre was trouncing the ruling Liberal Get together within the polls. It regarded just like the 2025 Canadian elections could be a well-known echo of the 2024 U.S. election. However as Trump stored insisting that Canada be part of the USA, the vibe shifted. Immediately Canadians had been booing “The Star-Spangled Banner” at sporting occasions, enlisting within the army at increased charges, and altering their thoughts in regards to the upcoming election.
Poilievre had categorically rejected the thought of becoming a member of the USA however his stylistic similarities to Trump damage his standing. By late March, the Liberals surged forward in nationwide polls for the primary time in three years forward of the April 28 election.
Once more, the USA doubtless has the army would possibly to shift the border. Whether or not Trump is ready to put money into the mandatory coercive equipment to crack down on restive Canadians is one other matter.
Even when Trump does not care that residents of potential annexed areas aren’t proud of the thought, neither the financial nor the safety logic for expanded territorial management is smart. Trump clearly believes that Russia is a superb energy, however the one dimension on which that’s true is in its possession of nuclear weapons. Although Russia is way and away the most important nation by way of geographic dimension, its share of worldwide financial output peaked at 3 % throughout this century and has been on the decline for years.
Equally, why would the USA have to personal Greenland? The island is already extraordinarily open to international direct funding, so it isn’t like sovereign management is an financial necessity. The U.S. already has a big army base there, and—previous to the president’s annexation threats—Denmark had signaled a willingness to permit a fair larger U.S. army presence. Past the perceived status of increasing U.S. territory, the distinction for actual U.S. objectives between Greenland being an unbiased republic, a protectorate of Denmark, or part of the USA is negligible.
Trump administration officers declare they want Greenland to thrust back encroachment by Russia and China. However this simply highlights one other downside with Trump’s logic: the onerous limits of a sphere-of-influence strategy to the world.
Neither Europe nor the Center East nor the complete continent of Africa have a “pure” hegemon. The explanation Russia is fascinated with Greenland is that Moscow believes the Arctic is a part of its sphere of affect; China equally likes to speak in regards to the Arctic as a part of its Polar Silk Street. In these areas one can envision Trump’s nice powers gamesmanship main not towards world stability between three regional hegemons, however somewhat to a brand new “Nice Sport” with the entire geopolitical tensions that include it.
Moreover, whereas it’s simple to counsel that the USA can commerce American hegemony within the Western Hemisphere for Chinese language hegemony within the Pacific Rim, fairly a number of different nations would have an issue with that entente. Longstanding U.S. allies similar to Japan and South Korea will resist being seen as part of China’s sphere of affect; so will newer companions, similar to India. Equally, loads of Latin American nations won’t need to abandon their buying and selling relationship with China. At current, China is South America’s prime buying and selling accomplice and the second-largest buying and selling accomplice for all of Latin America. China has signed commerce agreements with Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Peru; 22 nations within the hemisphere are a part of the Belt and Street Initiative. One can debate the geopolitical deserves of cozying as much as China, however a protectionist Trump administration is just not going to steer these nations to desert the Chinese language market willingly.
At any charge, buying and selling the present set of U.S. allies for an expanded United States is a horrible deal. European and Pacific Rim allies are technologically refined economies offering an vital supply of America’s international direct funding. The democratic regimes populating these areas have additionally confirmed to be extraordinarily steady and sturdy. Sacrificing them to a sphere-of-influence strategy is like buying and selling Luka Dončić for Anthony Davis.
Trump would possibly assume increasing America’s territory would be the final political win. However annexing territory doesn’t have the identical advantages within the twenty first century that it did within the 18th. Stockpiling some uncommon earths would possibly make sense as a safety precaution, however equating management of pure assets with energy or a lot misreads an terrible lot of current financial historical past. Based mostly on the reactions to his current rhetoric, Trump won’t be able to rewrite U.S. borders with out the usage of drive. Expending blood and treasure to amass territory that’s already beneath the management of loyal allies looks like too excessive a value to pay.
Simply earlier than World Struggle I, Norman Angell defined in The Nice Phantasm that the positive factors from commerce far outweigh the positive factors of plunder. The horrific prices of the Nice Struggle proved a really pricey affirmation of Angell’s argument. With Trump’s lust for increasing America’s borders changing into readily obvious, we danger having to relearn this lesson the onerous manner.
