Masayoshi Son, chairman and chief government officer of SoftBank Group Corp., speaks on the SoftBank World occasion in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, July 16, 2025.
Kiyoshi Ota | Bloomberg | Getty Photos
Masayoshi Son is making his greatest guess but: that his brainchild SoftBank would be the heart of a revolution pushed by synthetic intelligence.
Son says synthetic superintelligence (ASI) — AI that’s 10,000 instances smarter than people — can be right here in 10 years. It is a daring name — however maybe not shocking. He is made a profession out of huge performs; notably, one was a $20 million funding into Chinese language e-commerce firm Alibaba in 2000 that has made billions for SoftBank.
Now, the billionaire is hoping to copy that success with a collection of investments and acquisitions in AI companies that may put SoftBank on the heart of a basic technological shift.
Whereas Son has been outspoken about his imaginative and prescient during the last yr, his considering precedes a lot of his current bullishness, in accordance with two former executives at SoftBank.
“I vividly bear in mind the primary time he invited me to his residence for dinner and sitting on his porch over a glass of wine, he began speaking to me about singularity – the purpose at which machine intelligence overtakes human intelligence,” Alok Sama, a former finance chief at SoftBank till 2016 and and president till 2019, instructed CNBC.
SoftBank’s massive AI performs
For Son, AI appears private.
“SoftBank was based for what function? For what function was Masa Son born? It might sound unusual, however I feel I used to be born to understand ASI,” Son mentioned final yr.
That will go some technique to clarify what has been an aggressive drive over the previous few years — however particularly the final two — to place SoftBank on the heart of the AI story.
In 2016, SoftBank acquired chip designer Arm in a deal price about $32 billion on the time. At present, Arm is valued at greater than $145 billion. Whereas Arm blueprints kind the idea of the designs for practically all of the world’s smartphones, today, the corporate is seeking to place itself as a key participant in AI infrastructure. Arm-based chips are a part of Nvidia’s methods that go into knowledge facilities.
In March, SoftBank additionally introduced plans to accumulate one other chip designer, Ampere Computing, for $6.5 billion.
ChatGPT maker OpenAI is one other marquee funding for SoftBank, with the Japanese big saying not too long ago that deliberate investments within the firm will attain about 4.8 trillion Japanese yen ($32.7 billion).
SoftBank has additionally invested in plenty of different firms associated to AI throughout its portfolio.
“SoftBank’s AI technique is complete, spanning your complete AI stack from foundational semiconductors, software program, infrastructure, and robotics to cutting-edge cloud companies and finish purposes throughout important verticals reminiscent of enterprise, training, well being, and autonomous methods,” Neil Shah, co-founder at Counterpoint Analysis, instructed CNBC.
“Mr. Son’s imaginative and prescient is to cohesively join and deeply combine these parts, thereby establishing a robust AI ecosystem designed to maximise long-term worth for our shareholders.”
SoftBank’s inventory efficiency since 2017, the yr that its first Imaginative and prescient Fund was based.
There’s a widespread theme behind SoftBank’s investments in AI firms that comes straight from Son — particularly, that these companies needs to be utilizing superior intelligence to be extra aggressive, profitable, to make their product higher and their prospects comfortable, an individual acquainted with the corporate instructed CNBC. They may solely remark anonymously due to the sensitivity of the matter.
It began with and mind computer systems and robots
As SoftBank launched “SoftBank’s Subsequent 30-Yr Imaginative and prescient” in 2010, Son spoke about “mind computer systems” throughout a presentation. He described these computer systems as methods that might be taught and program themselves finally.
After which got here robots. Main tech figures like Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Tesla boss Elon Musk are actually speaking about robotics as a key utility of AI — however Son was considering about this greater than a decade in the past.
In 2012, SoftBank took a majority stake in a French firm known as Aldebaran. Two years later, the 2 firms launched a humanoid robotic known as Pepper, which they billed as “the world’s first private robotic that may learn feelings.”
Later, Son mentioned: “In 30 years, I hope robots will develop into one of many core companies in producing earnings for the SoftBank group.”
SoftBank’s guess on Pepper in the end flopped for the corporate. SoftBank slashed jobs at its robotics unit and stopped producing Pepper in 2020. In 2022, German agency United Robotics Group agreed to accumulate Aldebaran from SoftBank.
However Son’s very early curiosity in robots underscored his curiosity for AI purposes of the long run.
“He was in very early and he has been desirous about this obsessively for a very long time,” Sama, who’s writer of “The Cash Lure,” mentioned.
Within the background, Son was cooking up one thing greater: a tech fund that might make waves within the investing world. He based the Imaginative and prescient Fund in 2017 with an enormous $100 billion in deployable capital.
SoftBank aggressively invested in firms the world over with among the greatest bets on trip hailing gamers like Uber and Chinese language agency Didi.
However investments in Chinese language expertise firms and a few unhealthy bets on companies like WeWork soured sentiment for the Imaginative and prescient Fund because it racked up billions of {dollars} of losses by 2023.
Imaginative and prescient however unhealthy timing
The market questioned a few of Son’s investments in firms like Uber and Didi, which had been burning via money on the time and had unclear unit economics.
However even these investments spoke to Son’s AI view, in accordance with the previous accomplice on the SoftBank Imaginative and prescient Fund.
“His thought again then was the primary introduction of AI can be self-driving automobiles,” the supply instructed CNBC.
Once more this could possibly be seen as a case of being too early. Uber created a driverless automobile unit solely to promote it off. As an alternative, the corporate has centered on different self-driving automobile firms to convey them onto the Uber platform. Even now, driverless automobiles should not widespread on roads, although industrial companies like these of Waymo can be found.
SoftBank nonetheless has investments in driverless automobile firms, reminiscent of British startup Wayve.
Timing clearly wasn’t on Son’s facet. After document losses on the Imaginative and prescient Fund in 2022, Son declared SoftBank would go into “protection” mode, considerably lowering investments and being extra prudent. It was at the moment that firms like OpenAI had been starting to realize steam, however nonetheless earlier than the launch of ChatGPT that might put the corporate on the map.
“When these firms got here to go in 2021, 2022, Masa would have been in an ideal place however he had used all his ammunition on different firms,” the previous Imaginative and prescient Fund exec mentioned.
“After they got here to age in 21, 22, the Imaginative and prescient Fund had invested in 5 – 6 hundred completely different firms and he was not able to put money into AI and he missed that.”
Son himself mentioned this yr that SoftBank needed to put money into OpenAI as early as 2019, however it was Microsoft that ended up turning into the important thing investor. Quick ahead to 2025, the Imaginative and prescient Fund — of which there are actually two — has a portfolio stacked filled with AI centered firms.
However that interval was robust for traders throughout the board. The Covid-19 pandemic, booming inflation and rising charges hit private and non-private markets throughout the board after years of free financial coverage and a tech bull run.
SoftBank did not see that point as a missed alternative to put money into AI, an individual acquainted with the corporate mentioned.
As an alternative, the the corporate is of the view that it’s nonetheless very early within the AI investing cycle, the supply added.
Threat and reward
AI expertise is fast-moving, from the chips that run the software program to the fashions that underpin in style purposes.
Tech giants within the U.S. and China are battling it out to provide ever-advancing AI fashions with the intention of reaching synthetic common intelligence (AGI) — a time period with completely different definitions relying on who you converse to, however one which broadly refers to AI that’s smarter than people. With billions of {dollars} of funding going into the expertise, the danger is excessive, and the rewards could possibly be even increased.
However disruption can come out of no the place.
This yr, Chinese language agency DeepSeek made waves after releasing a so-called reasoning mannequin that seemed to be developed extra cheaply than its U.S. rivals. The truth that a Chinese language firm managed the feat, regardless of all of the export restrictions for superior tech in place, rocked international monetary markets that had been betting the U.S. had an unassailable AI lead.
Whereas markets have since recovered, the potential of shock advances in expertise at such an early stage in AI stays an enormous threat for the likes of SoftBank.
“As with most expertise investments the important thing problem is to put money into the successful applied sciences. Most of the investments SoftBank has made are within the present leaders however AI remains to be in its relative infancy so different challengers may nonetheless rear up from nowhere,” Dan Baker, senior fairness analyst at Morningstar, instructed CNBC.
Nonetheless, Son has made it clear he needs to set SoftBank up with DNA that may see it survive and thrive for 300 years, in accordance with the corporate’s web site.
That will go some technique to clarify the massive dangers that Son takes, and his conviction in terms of specific themes and firms — and the valuations he is prepared to pay.
“He (Son) made some errors, however directionally he’s going in the identical driection, which is — he needs to make certain that he’s an actual participant in AI and he’s making it occur,” the previous Imaginative and prescient Fund exec mentioned.
