It doesn’t take an terrible lot of investigating to see that we’re swimming in an ocean of waste: There are the maxed-out landfills, unlawful trash dumping within the desert, choked-up rivers, strangled sea turtles and skyrocketing trash assortment charges.
However there’s disagreement about what it portends about our future relationship with waste.
Many within the waste and environmental area consider the present state of affairs is so untenable that strict anti-plastic and waste legal guidelines will quickly be applied — and we’ll have much less persistent waste. Others, nevertheless, are extra cynical, and level to a slew of financial, manufacturing, advertising and marketing, judicial and coverage indicators that recommend issues are possible solely to worsen.
By the point 2050 rolls round, “nice swaths of California land could have turn into sacrifice zones contaminated with microplastics and poisonous chemical substances from uncontrolled dumping of organics with excessive ranges of plastics, artificial textile and different nonorganic contamination,” mentioned Jan Dell, president and founding father of the Laguna Seashore-based nonprofit Final Seashore Cleanup. “Some residences and neighborhoods will probably be declared uninhabitable.”

This location south of East Avenue M in Lake Los Angeles holds mulch, trash and building particles. The location was discovered by a resident who adopted a truck onto the filth roads.
(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Occasions)
She famous the rampant dumping that’s already occurring within the Antelope Valley, and urged that even when the state’s landmark plastic laws is applied in a method that legislators meant — which features a requirement that would cut back the quantity of single-use plastic offered and distributed within the state — “CalRecycle won’t ever make [it] … work. They will’t even successfully ban foam cups.”
She and others, together with Susan Keefe of Past Plastics, one other nonprofit, mentioned the plastic and packaging industries have invested an excessive amount of in ramping up plastic manufacturing to permit laws or bans to cease them. And customers have turn into so accustomed to the comfort of single-use plastic that change is unlikely to occur and not using a push from the federal government.
“It’s laborious to be tremendous optimistic while you see how a lot waste we generate,” mentioned Keefe, Past Plastic’s Southern California director. “I feel that we’re going to see extra unlawful dumping, extra waste incineration crops constructed, and we’ll run out of landfills. If we proceed on the trajectory that we’re on, I don’t see how we’re not going to be swimming in it.”
However others, together with a number of waste consultants and neighborhood organizers throughout the Los Angeles area, say change is afoot. And by the point 2050 rolls round, we’ll all have adopted new, much less polluting, methods of consuming and discarding merchandise.
There aren’t any knowledge or widespread proof to again up these claims; simply hope, dedication and some small-scale examples wherein community-organized composting and academic outreach campaigns — with assist from teams akin to LA Compost and Los Angeles Alliance for a New Economic system, or LAANE — appeared to have taken maintain and made native change.
“By 2050 we’ll be in a very new paradigm,” mentioned Ryan Jackson, government director of LA Compost — a composting advocacy group — and former director of the town’s Division of Public Works. “We’ll be in a useful resource restoration mannequin, the place nothing’s wasted, and we’ll be having fun with a round financial system. … It feels dramatic, however from what we’ve seen up shut with our group, it’s very a lot doable.”
Jackson sees the shift as one pushed organically by neighborhoods and communities which have had a chance to see how they may stay in a different way. Members of his group, which has labored in colleges, neighborhood gardens and farmers markets from Lengthy Seashore to Calabasas, say they’ve witnessed optimistic shifts in conduct and attitudes when neighborhood compost hubs have been established.
However, together with others, he says that authorities must play a job, too.

Erika Schwerdt, neighborhood organizer, exhibits an unlawful mulch dump between houses and Wilsona Elementary and Challenger center colleges in Lake Los Angeles in April.
(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Occasions)
“We’re taking a look at a future [in 2050] the place we predict the town will probably be in a a lot better place as a result of RecycLA could have been in impact for 30 years,” mentioned Victor Sanchez, the manager director of Los Angeles Alliance for a New Economic system, or LAANE.
RecycLA is a 2017 Los Angeles-based recycling program, which — in a public partnership with personal waste hauling firms — promotes recycling and requires the diversion of waste materials from landfills on an escalating foundation. Its major function is to get L.A. nearer to “zero waste” — a plan adopted by the county’s supervisors in 2022, which lays out a framework designed to scale back the usage of landfills, maximize the usage of pure assets and recuperate supplies for useful use or reuse.
The thought behind it’s to create a round financial system, wherein merchandise and packages are designed and manufactured with supplies that may be reused, composted or recycled.
Up to now, the regulation has been met with combined success. Diversion from landfill has elevated, however so too has a surge of unlawful waste dumping within the Antelope Valley suggesting the regulation could also be having some unintended penalties. Critics level to a dearth of recycling and composting infrastructure within the metropolis and county as a part of the issue.
There has additionally been bother on the state stage.
In 2022, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed Senate Invoice 54, which requires that product and packaging producers keep monetary duty for his or her merchandise from starting to finish — theoretically incentivizing firms to supply objects that gained’t contribute to a glut of waste.
Particularly, the regulation requires that by 2032, plastic and packaging firms cut back single-use plastic packaging by 25% from 2025 ranges. It additionally requires that the rest of single-use plastic packaging and foodware objects nonetheless being offered and marketed are 100% compostable or recyclable. As well as, packaging producers must bear the prices of their merchandise’ end-life (whether or not by way of recycling, composting, landfill or export) and determine the way to make it occur — eradicating that expensive burden from customers and native governments.
Newsom’s administration has since backtracked on rules that may have helped to attain these targets, and as an alternative has written new draft rules that critics contend are industry-friendly and watered down.
Regardless of these regulatory failures, and an acknowledgment that “capital” and company pursuits have a knack for influencing the implementation of legal guidelines and for locating loopholes in laws — such because the time California banned plastic luggage at retail shops, solely to find they’d created an exception for thicker “reusable” plastic luggage, and plastic bag waste really elevated — there may be cause to hope, mentioned Sanchez.
Sure, there have been some short-term failures, he mentioned, however “that’s going to occur while you overhaul a complete system, proper?”
He mentioned he has seen “beacons of hope” in his work with communities the place individuals are “respiration the air … coping with the scent and fixed air pollution,” of close by landfill and waste websites. He mentioned these communities know the dangers, risks and harmful penalties of our present waste system. And in lots of circumstances, they’re efficiently preventing for change — by pushing to close down polluted landfills and mobilizing employees in these programs to demand honest compensation and secure working situations.
“The problem that’s upon us is to construct extra shared possession and consciousness round waste. We have now to make the case as to why it’s vital to spend money on a system that works, as a result of, on the finish of the day, it’s about investing in ourselves. It’s actually existential,” he mentioned.
Even representatives from the town’s personal waste {industry} are hopeful — regardless of being on the improper facet of a lawsuit suggesting a lot of them are delivering unpermitted waste to the Antelope Valley.
A lawsuit filed this 12 months in U.S. District Courtroom in Los Angeles by Antelope Valley residents claims that waste-hauling firms together with Athens Providers and California Waste Providers are dumping hazardous substances with out authorization, which the businesses deny. Athens famous that the regulation encourages the distribution of compostable materials to “farmers and different property house owners for useful use.”
Jessica Aldridge, director of sustainability and nil waste providers at Athens Providers, an L.A.-based waste hauling firm, was not able to reply questions in regards to the lawsuit, however mentioned her firm is optimistic about what “the environmental neighborhood, social justice and waste communities are attempting to attain.”
She agreed with Sanchez that whereas there could also be some momentary political and regulatory setbacks, California lawmakers “have a optimistic purpose in thoughts, they usually’re organising the rules and the infrastructure” in pursuit of a cleaner setting and a extra round financial system.
However Keefe, the Past Plastics advocate, says all this hope for round financial system legal guidelines and small neighborhood motion is misplaced, that we’re not going to make a dent in waste technology so long as single-use plastic producers produce and promote their merchandise.
“Plastic recycling is a delusion,” she mentioned, pointing to the abysmally low quantity of plastic that’s really recycled, in addition to the lawsuit that California’s legal professional normal filed final 12 months towards ExxonMobil. The go well with alleges that the fossil-fuel firm knowingly deceived the general public about plastic recycling for years, resulting in the plastic air pollution disaster we face right this moment.
“Till we cease specializing in plastic recycling, we’re by no means going to get there,” mentioned Keefe.