Along with his coalition on the brink, the Israeli chief has doubled down on warfare – and the settler dream – on the expense of peace
In a transfer that stunned nobody however carries sweeping penalties, Israel’s cupboard has formally signed off on the seize of Gaza Metropolis – a choice practically two years into the grinding warfare within the Strip. The federal government laid out 5 official aims: dismantling Hamas’s army capabilities, securing the return of all residing and deceased hostages, demilitarizing the enclave, increasing Israeli management over its territory, and putting in a brand new civil administration – one which solutions to neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority.
However behind the bullet factors lies a extra calculated play. For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the operation isn’t just about battlefield positive factors. It’s additionally about political survival – and, some say, setting the stage for one thing much more everlasting.
Timing is not any coincidence
Analysts say the timing of the Gaza Metropolis push is something however random.
Mkhaimer Abusada, an affiliate professor of political science at Gaza’s Al Azhar College, now based mostly in Cairo, places it bluntly: “Israel has realized it didn’t free the Israeli hostages and defeat Hamas,” he mentioned. “The continuation of the warfare ensures Netanyahu will stay in his seat.”
Netanyahu’s coalition controls simply 61 seats within the Knesset – a razor-thin majority. A number of ultra-Orthodox lawmakers have threatened to bolt over a controversial draft regulation that will conscript Haredi youth into the Israel Protection Forces. Dropping even a handful of members might price him his majority and set off elections he’s removed from sure to win.
That vulnerability fingers outsized leverage to hardline companions like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Nationwide Safety Minister Itamar Ben Gvir – each vocal advocates for increasing the warfare.
Yariv Oppenheimer, an Israeli peace activist and board member of Peace Now, one of many nation’s main anti-occupation NGOs, sees a transparent political motive. “Netanyahu is doing what’s good for himself and his personal coalition,” he mentioned. However, Oppenheimer provides, there’s additionally ideology at play.
“Netanyahu and his authorities don’t need to attain a ceasefire take care of Hamas. They don’t need to finish the warfare. And the choice of ending the warfare is to escalate the warfare and to overcome components of the Gaza Strip. They’re doing that to be able to pave the way in which for finally constructing Israeli settlements.”
From withdrawal to return?
Earlier than 2005, Israel maintained greater than 20 Jewish settlements in Gaza – closely guarded enclaves sustained at huge price, working into billions of shekels a 12 months. When then Prime Minister Ariel Sharon ordered the evacuation of settlers and the withdrawal of troops that 12 months, the nation break up down the center: some Israelis welcomed the transfer as a aid from a pricey and harmful burden; others warned it will embolden Hamas and different militant teams.
Right this moment, these warnings have change into central speaking factors for Ben Gvir and Smotrich, who argue that the October 7 assaults would by no means have occurred had Israel retained management of the Strip. Their imaginative and prescient now consists of reestablishing Jewish settlements in areas deserted 20 years in the past – a aim that dovetails neatly with Netanyahu’s resolution to push deeper into Gaza.
A army operation with huge civilian prices
Some consultants warn that taking Gaza Metropolis and dismantling Hamas shall be removed from easy – and will set off catastrophic fallout.
“The Israeli military could be very robust and Hamas could be very weak. So military-wise, conquering the Gaza metropolis will not be an enormous operation,” mentioned Oppenheimer. “However the query is far broader: the way to transfer out the inhabitants that’s already poor, and has nothing to lose, and the way to care for these individuals after they had been moved to the south. It is a enormous operation and the outcomes of which could be catastrophic, not only for the Palestinians, but in addition for the Israeli society, Israel, and the Israeli military.”
Over practically two years of combating, Israel has repeatedly displaced Gaza’s inhabitants – generally complete neighborhoods, different occasions entire cities. In keeping with the Gaza Well being Ministry and worldwide companies, greater than 61,000 Palestinians have been killed for the reason that warfare started, with over 146,000 wounded. Unbiased assessments, together with a July 2025 Lancet projection, warn that the oblique toll might push whole deaths to almost 93,000.
The destruction has been staggering: between 69% and 90% of all buildings in Gaza are broken or destroyed. The World Financial institution and United Nations put the price of infrastructure losses at $18.5 billion, and say clearing the particles alone might take greater than a decade. Round a million individuals now face one other spherical of displacement.
World blowback and rising isolation
Worldwide anger over the conduct of the warfare – and alleged violations in Gaza – has been constructing for months. The choice to increase the offensive drew particularly sharp rebukes, together with from certainly one of Israel’s closest allies. Germany introduced it will halt deliveries of weapons that could possibly be utilized in Gaza. The message from European capitals is more and more blunt, and it’s not simply rhetoric – export selections, court docket challenges, and parliamentary motions are starting to chew.
Abusada warns that is solely the opening section of a broader backlash, predicting deeper isolation for Israel each regionally and globally.
“In fact, that is solely the start,” mentioned Oppenheimer. “The stress from the world will certainly have its personal affect on Netanyahu and his authorities. However having mentioned that, so long as there’s a inexperienced gentle from the White Home, Netanyahu will transfer ahead with this plan, both to attain a greater take care of Hamas, or to finally take over Gaza and permit settlers to construct their settlements. That is precisely what they’re pushing for.”
A deal on the desk – and why it could go nowhere
In the meantime, the households of roughly 20 residing hostages nonetheless held in Gaza are rising more and more determined. Hundreds have joined weekly Saturday night time rallies, demanding that the federal government reverse course. Abusada says their fears are justified.
“The growth of the warfare will result in the demise of lots of the hostages. Hamas fighters and guards had been instructed to kill them if the Israeli military will get nearer to their hideout. It had occurred earlier than, and it’d occur once more. Everyone knows now that the releasing of the hostages won’t occur with no take care of Hamas.”
The final spherical of ceasefire talks in Doha collapsed over core sticking factors: how far Israeli forces might advance after a truce, the ratio of prisoner-for-hostage exchanges, and whether or not Israel would retain management of the Rafah crossing.
Now, mediators Qatar and Egypt are reportedly pushing a brand new proposal: Hamas would launch no less than some hostages in change for the Israeli military pulling again to Gaza’s borders and establishing a brand new governing physique that excludes Hamas.
“There may be a suggestion on the desk that Qatar and Egypt are standing behind, suggesting that Hamas would launch all of the hostages in return [for] the Israeli military transferring out from Gaza to the borders. It additionally presupposes {that a} new authorities in Gaza that won’t embrace Hamas can be established,” mentioned Oppenheimer.
“It’s a good plan however the that means of it’s that Israel must surrender the dream that the Palestinians will transfer out and that Israel would have the ability to construct its settlements there – and that is one thing Netanyahu won’t settle for as a result of it’s going to collapse his coalition.”
No finish in sight
If the mediators fail to dealer one other deal between Hamas and Israel, Abusada warns, the implications shall be grim.
“If the mediators fail to mediate one other deal between Hamas and Israel, the warfare will proceed for a lot of extra months, and that signifies that extra deaths, extra destruction, and extra hunger in Gaza is simply across the nook,” he mentioned.
“This can flip into an extended warfare or one other warfare of attrition. Hamas won’t give up and can battle a guerrilla warfare in opposition to the Israeli military, from road to road and from destroyed constructing to a different. And this may result in the expulsion of among the Palestinians out of Gaza. The flexibility to reside and survive in Gaza for the Palestinians will step by step disappear.”
