A cargo ship carries international commerce containers on the Jiaozhou Bay waterway in Qingdao, Shandong Province, China, on August 5, 2025.
Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Pictures
China’s export development in July sharply beat market expectations because the clock on a tariff truce with the U.S. retains ticking, whereas imports rose to their highest in a 12 months.
Exports climbed 7.2% in July in U.S. greenback phrases from a 12 months earlier, customs knowledge confirmed Thursday, exceeding Reuters-polled economists’ estimates of a 5.4% rise.
Imports rose 4.1% final month from a 12 months earlier, marking the most important bounce since July 2024, based on LSEG knowledge. The info additionally indicated a restoration in import ranges following June’s 1.1% rebound. Economists had forecast imports in July to fall 1.0%, based on a Reuters ballot.
On a year-to-date foundation, China’s general exports jumped 6.1% from a 12 months earlier, whereas imports fell 2.7%, customs knowledge confirmed. China’s commerce surplus this 12 months, as of July, reached $683.5 billion, 32% increased than the identical interval in 2024.
China’s exports have supported the economic system “strongly” up to now this 12 months, mentioned Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Administration, cautioning that the momentum of companies’ cargo front-loading might quickly fade.
Nonetheless, Beijing’s exports to the U.S. fell for the fourth consecutive month on a year-over-year foundation. In July, it shrank 21.7% from a 12 months earlier. Imports from the U.S. additionally dropped 18.9% 12 months over 12 months.
July’s export declines have been largely offset by shipments diverted to various markets reminiscent of Southeast Asia, which elevated 16.6%, whereas imports fell 5.8% from a 12 months earlier. China’s exports to the European Union additionally rose 9.2% whereas imports fell 1.6%.
In July, China’s exports of uncommon earths surged 21.4% from a 12 months in the past to five,994.3 tones whereas auto exports grew 26% to 694,000 items. Exports of semiconductors rose 16% from a 12 months in the past to 31.8 billion items.
China’s imports of soybeans rose 18.4% to 11.66 million tones, whereas crude oil imports grew 11.5% from a 12 months earlier.
The U.S. and Chinese language negotiators have but to strike an settlement that will maintain the triple-digit tariffs at bay because the truce expires on Aug.12.
China’s U.S.-bound items presently face a 20% tariff associated to the nation’s alleged position within the stream of fentanyl into the U.S., a ten% baseline tariff, stacked on high of a 25% obligation on sure items imposed throughout Trump’s first time period.
Trump has threatened to impose new sectoral levies that may impression nations together with China, reminiscent of a tariff on prescription drugs that would go as much as 200%, and an about 100% “secondary tariff” for purchasing Russian oil.
Up to now, Beijing has agreed to finish its export ban on rare-earth metals and magnets to the U.S. following a sequence of negotiations, whereas Washington has agreed to restart shipments of semiconductor design software program and manufacturing supplies.
Semiconductor large Nvidia mentioned final month that the U.S. authorities was reviewing its licenses to doubtlessly enable it to renew gross sales of H20 chips to Chinese language shoppers, reversing a ban the Trump administration imposed in April.
China’s manufacturing facility exercise unexpectedly deteriorated to a three-month low in July, with the official manufacturing buying managers’ index falling to 49.3 from June’s studying of 49.7, lacking expectations for 49.7.
