Survey Says is a weekly collection rounding up crucial polling developments or information factors you want to learn about, plus a vibe test on a pattern that’s driving politics.
A person-made famine in Gaza
On Tuesday, a United Nations-affiliated group launched a damning report in regards to the “worst-case situation for famine” occurring within the Gaza Strip. Over 20,000 youngsters have been handled for extreme malnutrition, and not less than 16 baby deaths have been tied to hunger. Israel’s blockade of support is the first reason for the disaster, with the director-general of the World Well being Group referring to the mass hunger as “man-made.”
And but, final Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu falsely claimed, “There is no such thing as a hunger in Gaza”—a lie too brazen for even famous liar President Donald Trump.
“A few of these children are—that is actual hunger stuff,” Trump mentioned on Monday. “I see it, and you’ll’t faux that.”
And the overwhelming majority of America sees it too. New polling from YouGov finds that 68% of Individuals agree there’s a starvation disaster in Gaza. That features majorities of Democrats (84%), independents (65%), and Republicans (55%). Simply 5% of Individuals say there isn’t a disaster.
Pluralities of Individuals additionally assume Israel (46%) and the U.S. (43%) needs to be doing extra to finish the mass hunger.
All of this hits as fewer Individuals than ever earlier than help Israel’s navy actions in Gaza, which have claimed the lives of 60,000 Gazans, together with 18,500 youngsters, although research counsel the true variety of deaths is larger.
Sixty p.c of Individuals disapprove of Israel’s navy marketing campaign in Gaza, in keeping with new information from Gallup. Solely 32% approve of it, beating the earlier low of 36% in March 2024.
Republicans are most supportive of Israel’s marketing campaign, with 71% approving. However help has tumbled amongst independents (25%) and cratered amongst Democrats (8%). Within the earlier ballot, carried out final September, help amongst independents and Democrats was 16 proportion factors larger for every.
Nonetheless, Gallup’s ballot completed fielding on July 21, earlier than the newest spherical of high-profile reporting on the budding famine in Gaza, and earlier than a distinguished Republican lawmaker referred to as the disaster there a “genocide.” So it’s simple to think about that help for Israel’s motion in Gaza is even decrease now.
Burning down the home
Below Trump, the Environmental Safety Company now not desires to guard the setting or the folks dwelling in it. On Tuesday, the company introduced it can transfer to rescind the first authorized grounds it has used to curb the emissions that gas local weather change.
However the Trump administration is doing this with nearly no public mandate.
Majorities of each demographic—males, ladies, each race, age group, and earnings bracket—need the federal government to keep up or broaden its restrictions on greenhouse gasoline emissions, in keeping with the most recent YouGov/The Economist ballot.
Properly, each demographic save one. Solely Republicans are under majority degree, with simply 36% saying the federal government ought to preserve or broaden emissions restrictions. Twenty-nine p.c wish to see them decreased, and 18% need them eradicated—which, when mixed, can also be not a majority of Republicans.
In the meantime, a plurality of each different demographic desires to see restrictions not simply maintained but in addition expanded.
The identical phenomenon repeats throughout different questions within the ballot.
Is the federal government doing an excessive amount of or not sufficient to struggle local weather change? A majority or plurality of each demographic says “not sufficient”—aside from Republicans, 32% of whom say it’s doing “an excessive amount of” and 38% of whom say it’s doing “about the correct amount.”
Is the local weather altering due to human exercise, because the common scientific consensus says is the case? A majority or plurality of each demographic thinks so—aside from Republicans, a plurality of whom (46%) admits the local weather is altering however claims that people aren’t guilty.
One motive for this head-in-sand resistance to addressing local weather change is that the problem cuts to the foundation of conservatism itself. To just accept the gravity of the disaster requires folks to see their actions as doubtlessly dangerous and to assume exterior of themselves. To handle the disaster would require large-scale collective motion—authorities motion, to be particular. It’ll require us to alter, which conservatism, in its very identify, opposes.
However maybe “conservatism” is a misnomer. Conservative actions on local weather change, like these taken by Trump’s EPA, will result in habitat collapse, environmental destruction, and the lack of human life. How does that “preserve” something?
By the wanting glass
A brand new ballot reveals Trump along with his worst internet approval ranking but: +2 factors. Fifty p.c of voters approve of the job he’s doing as president, and 48% disapprove.
Wait, what?
Sure, whereas most polls present Trump’s approval ranking within the dumps, not each ballot does. The outcomes above are from a ballot carried out by two right-wing pollsters, InsiderAdvantage and the Trafalgar Group. The latter agency has notoriously secretive strategies, however it retains simply sufficient credibility that mainstream polling averages, like these from The New York Occasions and election analyst Nate Silver, don’t outright disregard them. (Fortunately, these averages are sensible and regulate polls for companies’ partisan bias.)
Nonetheless, these polls inform us one thing key in regards to the right-wing media ecosystem: You gotta hold the massive man glad.
On the earth of right-wing polls, Trump’s approval ranking is underwater however simply barely. In a easy common of polls in July, 47.4% of the nation approves of Trump’s job as president, whereas 49.8% disapproves, in keeping with polls that political analyst Mary Radcliffe aggregated and that Each day Kos recognized as coming from Republican-aligned companies. (Radcliffe is a former colleague of mine at 538.)
Using the decimal level in these numbers is necessary as a result of in no month has this common of GOP-aligned polls proven {that a} majority of the nation disapproves of Trump.
In the meantime, in a easy common of all polls from all pollsters, Trump hit majority disapproval in April, probably on account of his reviled tariff plan. Extra complicated averages, run by the Occasions and Silver, present this as properly.
The truth is, as Trump’s common approval ranking has sunk, Republican pollsters have damaged increasingly with the mainstream common, as if to elevate their man’s spirits. In January, Trump’s common internet approval ranking stood at almost +10 factors amongst Republican pollsters and about 2 factors higher than amongst all pollsters. By April, although, the common distinction between Republican pollsters and the general combination was greater than 5 factors. In June and July, it’s been virtually 7 factors.
“I’ve the most effective numbers I’ve ever had,” Trump mentioned on July 23, because the scandal round his administration’s dealing with of the Jeffrey Epstein case hit fever pitch. “You understand, it’s superb I watch folks on tv: ‘Properly, what about Donald Trump’s polling numbers?’ Yeah, they’re the most effective numbers I’ve ever had.”
These GOP-affiliated pollsters could also be what Trump has in thoughts, however not even they present the supposed outcomes he’s rambling on about.
Any updates?
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It’s August 2025, the proper time to worry about hypothetical polling for the 2028 presidential election. A brand new ballot from Emerson Faculty finds that former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is greatest positioned to tackle Vice President JD Vance, if these two had been to run and the election had been held right this moment. Nonetheless, Buttigieg lags Vance by 1 level, however that’s throughout the margin of error. In the meantime, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and California Gov. Gavin Newsom path Vance by 3 factors every. Nonetheless, in every hypothetical head-to-head, about 13% of voters are undecided. It’s anybody’s race!
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Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York Metropolis, gained his major after relentlessly messaging on town’s cost-of-living woes—and new polling confirms that this messaging was integral to his victory. Amongst those that voted for Mamdani, 89% had been swayed to take action due to his plans to decrease prices, in keeping with a ballot Information for Progress carried out on behalf of the Institute for Center East Understanding Coverage Undertaking. Different points that swayed votes: Mamdani’s plan to tax the rich and tackle companies (86%), his help for Palestinian rights (62%), and his character and power (60%).
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One other week, one other batch of Epstein polling. Whereas Each day Kos coated the topline takeaways in a brand new YouGov/Economist poll earlier this week, the identical ballot additionally discovered that the overwhelming majority of Individuals (64%) oppose Trump doubtlessly pardoning Epstein co-conspirator Ghislaine Maxwell, which Trump, being a foul man with a damaged soul, is contemplating. Solely 4% assume he ought to pardon the convicted intercourse trafficker. All this comes as one other new ballot—this time from The Washington Put up and SSRS—finds that solely 16% of Individuals approve of how Trump is dealing with the Epstein recordsdata challenge. The truth is, solely 43% of self-described MAGA Republicans help him on the matter.
Vibe test
Newly 79 years previous, Trump is predicted to exit the White Home in January 2029 because the oldest president within the nation’s historical past, at age 82 and 7 months. And if most Individuals acquired their approach, he’d be the oldest president the nation will ever have too.
A newly launched survey from YouGov, carried out in March, finds that 53% of Individuals would restrict folks 80 years of age and older from being president, whereas solely 25% say there needs to be no age restrict, the present apply.
Republicans paved the way in pondering there needs to be no restrict too, with a plurality of 36% pondering as a lot. In the meantime, solely 12% of Democrats and 27% of independents agree.
Of the 4 actions YouGov polled—being president, driving a automobile, voting in federal elections, and playing legally—the presidency was the one which voters most needed to limit to youthful age teams.
Nonetheless, the ballot additionally finds that 1 in 10 Democrats and 1 in 5 Republicans and independents assume there needs to be no minimal age requirement on getting married, so Individuals’ views on age limits could be questionable, to say the least.
