Might this be the primary time in historical past a social media spat triggers nuclear escalation?
President Donald Trump, offended by posts by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, says he is ordered two nuclear submarines to maneuver nearer to Russia.
So, how will Moscow reply? Are we on a path to a nuclear standoff between America and Russia? A web-age model of the 1962 Cuban Missile Disaster?
I doubt it, judging by preliminary response in Russia.
Russian information retailers have been somewhat dismissive of Trump’s announcement.
Chatting with the Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper, a navy commentator concluded that Trump was “throwing a mood tantrum”.
A retired lieutenant-general advised Kommersant that the US president’s speak of submarines was “meaningless blather. It is how he will get his kicks”.
“I am certain Trump did not actually give any orders [about submarines],” a Russian safety knowledgeable prompt to the identical paper.
Kommersant additionally mentions that in 2017, Trump mentioned that he’d despatched two nuclear submarines to the Korean peninsula as a warning to North Korea.
But not lengthy after, Trump held a gathering with North Korean chief Kim Jong Un.
So, bizarrely, may Donald Trump’s newest submarine deployment be a precursor to a US-Russia summit?
I would not go that far.
However the response from the Russian authorities has been attention-grabbing.
At time of writing, there hasn’t been any.
Not from the Kremlin. Not from the Russian overseas ministry. Nor the defence ministry.
And I’ve seen no announcement about Russian nuclear submarines being positioned nearer to America.
Which means that both Moscow remains to be finding out the scenario and understanding what to do, or that Moscow would not really feel the necessity to react.
The Russian press response I discussed earlier suggests it is the latter.
Trump had been sparring with Medvedev on social media for a number of days.
After the US president had diminished his 50-day deadline for Russia to finish its conflict in Ukraine to lower than two weeks, Medvedev posted that Trump was “enjoying the ultimatum sport with Russia…Every new ultimatum is a risk and a step in the direction of conflict”.
Trump responded: “Inform Medvedev, the failed former Russian president who thinks he’s nonetheless in energy, to watch out what he says. He’s getting into very harmful territory.”
Medvedev’s subsequent submit contained a reference to “Useless Hand”, the automated nuclear retaliation system developed within the Soviet Union.
Clearly, that didn’t go down nicely with the White Home chief.
When he was Russia’s president, between 2008 and 2012, Medvedev was seen as a comparatively liberal determine.
“Freedom is best than no freedom” he was famously quoted as saying.
However he has grown more and more hawkish. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine he has gained a popularity for bombastic, anti-Western social media posts. Most of them have handed unnoticed, since he’s not seen because the voice of the Kremlin.
Immediately he has been seen: by the President of america.
And never simply seen. He is received proper below Trump’s pores and skin.
It is one factor to dislike a social media submit. We have all been there.
However to dislike it a lot you deploy nuclear submarines looks like overkill.
So why has Trump completed it?
This is Trump’s personal rationalization from his interview with Newsmax: “Medvedev mentioned some issues which are very dangerous, speaking about nuclear. While you point out the phrase nuclear my eyes gentle up and I say we higher watch out, as a result of it is the final word risk.”
However Medvedev has lengthy been accused of nuclear sabre-rattling through social media. It is nothing new.
What is evident is that Trump took the current Medvedev posts very personally, and reacted accordingly.
Would possibly there even be a technique at play? Unpredictability looks like a giant a part of Trump’s means of doing issues, in enterprise and in politics; taking surprising selections that may put rivals and opponents off steadiness earlier than talks or throughout a negotiation.
On ending the conflict in Ukraine, for instance.
Shock submarine deployments could nicely fall into that class.
