By Elena Fabrichnaya
MOSCOW (Reuters) -Russian markets reacted cautiously to U.S. President Donald Trump’s risk to impose new sanctions, with analysts saying on Wednesday a weaker rouble and better oil costs because of his measures might help the economic system within the brief time period.
Trump mentioned on Tuesday the US would begin imposing tariffs and different measures on Russia “10 days from immediately” if Moscow confirmed no progress towards a peaceable settlement in Ukraine. Oil costs gained greater than 3% on his remarks.
The rouble has dropped 4.3% since July 24 to 81.9 to the U.S. greenback on Wednesday. Russia’s inventory market has fallen by 3.4% since July 24.
A weaker rouble boosts export competitiveness by making Russian items cheaper globally and will increase income from oil exports priced in {dollars}.
“The uncertainty of recent U.S. sanctions will proceed to weigh on the sentiment of Russian buyers,” mentioned Alexei Antonov from Alor brokerage.
The rouble has rallied by as much as 45% in opposition to the greenback this yr, because of the central financial institution’s tight financial coverage and hopes for alleviating tensions between Russia and the U.S. after talks held in Saudi Arabia in February.
The rouble’s appreciation lowered the income of Russian commodity corporations from oil and fuel majors to metals and fertilizer exporters. Such corporations make up about 60% of the inventory market, which is off-limits to Western buyers due to sanctions.
FUNDAMENTAL SUPPORT
Shares in some exporting firms rose after the rouble began sliding, with oil agency Rosneft, Russia’s greatest, gaining over 2% because the begin of the week, and nickel producer Nornickel rising by over 5% on July 29.
“Elementary help for the Russian exporters’ shares is offered by hovering oil costs and a considerably weakened rouble,” mentioned BCS brokerage analyst Mikhail Zeltser.
The central financial institution’s determination on July 25 to chop its key rate of interest as inflation eased additionally helped the rouble’s fall.
A weaker rouble will help the state price range, the primary goal of Trump’s measures, by growing the rouble-denominated worth of Russia’s power income even when that shrinks resulting from new sanctions.
Power made up 27% of Russia’s state price range income within the first half, down from round 30% in 2023 and 2024.
Though some weakening of the rouble to round 90 to the greenback is welcomed by the market, a extra vital slide in direction of 100 and past is seen as dangerous for the economic system.
Some analysts recalled November 2024, when the rouble weakened sharply after the U.S. imposed new sanctions. The rouble misplaced 11% between November 22 and November 27.
