A fan of Japanese manga reads a comic book in his dwelling in Kamisu in Japan’s Ibaraki Prefecture.
Philip Fong | Afp | Getty Pictures
Customer curiosity in Japan plunged in June, amid a prophecy in a manga that predicted a “catastrophe” would strike Japan in July 2025.
The prediction was in a 2021 reprint of a Japanese comedian guide, or manga, titled “Watashi ga Mita Mirai, Kanzenban” (which interprets to “The Future That I Noticed, Full Version”) by artist Ryo Tatsuki.
Within the unique printing of the guide in 1999, the quilt web page referenced a “catastrophe in March 2011.”
In March 2011, Japan suffered its strongest earthquake on file, the Nice Tohoku Earthquake, which prompted virtually 20,000 deaths and the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear catastrophe.
The Amazon itemizing for the reprint acknowledged that the writer had “new prophetic goals” together with the “actual catastrophe will are available in July 2025,” in response to a Google translation.
CN Yuen, managing director of Hong Kong-based journey company WWPKG advised CNBC that the rumor was broadly circulated in Hong Kong, the place it unfold over mainstream media, TV networks and thru YouTube influencers.
Guests arrivals from Hong Kong plunged 33.4% 12 months on 12 months in June, following an earlier 11.2% drop in Could, in response to Japan’s Nationwide Tourism Group.
Yuen stated his company has seen a 50% lower in bookings and inquiries in April and Could to Japan from final 12 months.
Vacationer arrivals from different Asian international locations additionally skilled slower development. Arrivals from South Korea rose simply 3.8% in June in contrast with Could’s 11.8%. Arrivals from Taiwan slowed considerably as effectively, from a 15.5% improve in Could to 1.8% in June.
Abroad guests to Japan grew 24%, on common, from January to Could of this 12 months, in comparison with 2024. However June arrivals solely noticed a 7.6% improve, in response to Japan’s journey statistics.
‘Good storm’
WWPKG’s Yuen stated he’s used to journey downturns associated to pure disasters, which normally finish after the incident is over.
However “this time, it is totally different, as a result of nothing occurred truly. It is solely a rumor, or prophecy,” he advised CNBC. “That is the primary time we have seen such an incident.”
Hong Kong and Japanese media reported earlier in July that Hong Kong airways minimize flights to some Japanese cities, together with Nagoya.
A January report from Japan’s Asahi Shimbun, citing the nation’s Headquarters for Earthquake Analysis Promotion, additionally warned that the probability of a megaquake within the subsequent 30 years had risen to 80%—a improvement that, mixed with the prediction, created a “good storm” to discourage vacationers, Yuen stated.
Nonetheless, Japan’s Meteorological Company stated: “It needs to be famous that the issuance of data indicating elevated potential for a Nankai Trough earthquake doesn’t essentially imply that one will truly strike.”
Asian vacationers extra affected than Western ones
JNTO knowledge confirmed that the share of Asian vacationers fell 12 months on 12 months in June, however that of Western international locations rose.
Consultants CNBC spoke to gave numerous causes, together with cultural ones.
“Manga is not only leisure; it’s broadly learn throughout age teams and carries a little bit of cultural authority in some Asian societies,” stated Zimbayah Kamble, a senior lecturer for hospitality at James Cook dinner College.
That, mixed with recollections of previous disasters and the truth of Japan’s seismic vulnerability, imply that such warnings “resonate strongly” within the area, she stated.
Kiattipoom Kiatkawsin, affiliate professor of hospitality and tourism administration from the Singapore Institute of Administration, stated the fast unfold of the rumors by way of social media platforms and the collectivist nature of many Asian societies led to a social amplification of perceived threat.
“Because of this even when some people have doubts, the collective response of their group or friends can considerably affect their selections, resulting in widespread behavioral adjustments, corresponding to journey cancelations,” Kiatkawsin stated.
“On this case, a fictional narrative amplified by social media may have created a compelling, if scientifically unfounded cause to defer journey,” he stated.
However each specialists additionally pointed to a extra unusual cause: the pliability of short-haul journey.
Kiatkawsin stated the prices of canceling the flights and lodge bookings will not be perceived as a barrier anymore.
“If they don’t journey to Japan this time, they will go one other time with out a lot trouble to rearrange once more,” he added.
Kiatkawsin stated he doesn’t count on the prediction will have an effect on Japan’s total journey outlook, on condition that the prediction is restricted to the month of July.
— CNBC’s Kaela Ling contributed to this story.
