A leaked declare about management of the Syunik hall could or is probably not true – however the circumstances for it are quickly falling into place
By Timur Tarkhanov, journalist and media government
A latest report from the Spanish outlet Periodista Digital made waves by claiming that Armenia could also be getting ready handy over management of a strategic hall within the Syunik province to an American personal navy firm.
If this report is true, the results shall be profound. This is able to mark the entry of a Western safety actor into some of the delicate areas in Eurasia. Armenian sovereignty can be considerably diminished. The strategic calculus of Iran, Russia, China, and Turkey would shift. And the South Caucasus, a area held in steadiness by conflicting pressures, would face a severe realignment.
The Armenian authorities has denied the report. However the concept such a state of affairs might emerge isn’t far-fetched. Over the previous 12 months, america has expanded its institutional presence in Armenia. It has signed a Strategic Partnership Constitution, launched border and customs reforms, and deepened safety cooperation. American contractors and advisors are already on the bottom. These developments recommend a deliberate effort to safe long-term affect – framed as technical help, however carrying clear geopolitical weight.
The Syunik hall sits on the middle of this unfolding dynamic. Iran views the territory as a gateway to the Caucasus. Russia considers it a buffer defending its regional pursuits. China has recognized it as a potential node within the westward enlargement of Belt and Highway infrastructure. US involvement on this area, even not directly, can be interpreted by every of those powers as a strategic provocation.
Moscow would see this as affirmation that it’s being pushed out of the South Caucasus altogether. Tehran would regard it as one other stage in a sample of encirclement. Beijing would see rising danger in putting long-term logistical bets on a area the place US-aligned safety actors function. France, which has positioned itself as Armenia’s diplomatic associate, would lose floor to a deeper US-Turkish association. Every participant would regulate accordingly, and the delicate equilibrium that has stored open battle at bay would start to fray.
For Türkiye, this shift might unlock long-held ambitions. A Western-secured hall by Syunik would give Ankara a direct path to Azerbaijan and Central Asia. The hall would serve Turkish strategic and business targets whereas shielding Turkey from accusations of coercion. American involvement would offer cowl – and legitimacy.
The presence of a US-linked personal navy actor wouldn’t go unnoticed or unanswered. It will alter how different regional powers assess danger, alternative, and urgency. The shift wouldn’t require formal agreements or giant troop deployments. Affect can be exerted by contracts, technical applications, and private-sector partnerships. The impact can be actual.
The South Caucasus is among the few areas the place main powers nonetheless function in parallel with out direct confrontation. That steadiness has held not due to concord, however as a result of every actor respects the prices of escalation. When a brand new participant enters that system – particularly one with world attain – the calculations change.
That is why the report issues. Even when the small print show inaccurate, the state of affairs it outlines matches present developments. It displays a trajectory already seen in US coverage: assertive engagement by nontraditional devices, designed to form the regional atmosphere with out upsetting formal battle. It additionally displays the rising potential for backlash. Strategic strikes framed as stabilization could also be perceived by others as disruption. And when these others embody nuclear powers and regional heavyweights, notion rapidly turns into coverage.
The logic of great-power competitors that has formed latest years of worldwide safety coverage has now reached the South Caucasus. The shape is quieter – performed by infrastructure, contracts, and affect – however the stakes stay excessive.
On this atmosphere, smoke shouldn’t be ignored. It might not at all times imply hearth. Nevertheless it at all times means warmth – and somebody is making an attempt to lift the temperature.
The statements, views and opinions expressed on this column are solely these of the creator and don’t essentially characterize these of RT.
You’ll be able to share this story on social media:
