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Dan Graziano
Oh, we’re getting there folks. Pads will quickly be popping. And the 53-man roster projections will quickly be projecting. Some groups have already had gamers report for coaching camp, and each crew may have by this time subsequent week. Earlier than lengthy, we’ll begin studying which of our NFL offseason takes have been overreactions and which of them weren’t.
However why wait?
It is time for the coaching camp version of the overreactions column, the place I take a number of conclusions you may need drawn from groups’ offseason exercise and let you know whether or not they’re overreactions.
Extra overreactions from Graziano:
Free company | Draft | Schedule launch
Soar to a bit:
NFC North groups | KC’s title streak
CLE’s QB room | WSH’s division hopes
Baker Mayfield’s breakout
All 4 NFC North groups will make the playoffs
Three of them made it final season. The Lions and Vikings mixed to win 29 video games, dueling till the ultimate sport of the common season to determine not solely the division title, however the No. 1 seed within the NFC playoffs. The Packers went 11-6 with the youngest roster within the league. 4 of these losses have been to the Lions and Vikings, and one other was to the eventual Tremendous Bowl champion Eagles.
The Bears? Properly, they went 5-12, however issues ought to be completely different this season with former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as their head coach. In addition they made a bunch of offensive personnel adjustments that ought to assist kick-start the event of 2024 No. 1 choose Caleb Williams.
Johnson did not leap from the division’s finest crew to its worst crew fascinated with a long-term rebuild. The Bears need to be an element instantly. And with a rebuilt offensive line, a few new ability gamers on offense and Dennis Allen teaching the protection, you’ll be able to see how they is perhaps. Since 2020 — the primary season by which the NFL’s expanded playoff format made it doable — no division has despatched all 4 of its groups to the playoffs in the identical season. But it surely’s sure to occur in some unspecified time in the future, and this division appears loaded.
The decision: OVERREACTION
Chicago’s the important thing to creating this occur, however it nonetheless appears slightly bit too quickly with its present roster. The Bears play 10 video games in opposition to groups that made final season’s playoffs, plus video games in opposition to the Cowboys and Bengals, who ought to be improved. Robust schedule, robust division. And even when the Bears do break by way of this 12 months, their success is more likely to come on the expense of no less than one in all their division rivals.
As for the remainder of the NFC, the Eagles nonetheless look superior. The Commanders seem primed to construct on final season’s shock NFC Championship Sport run. The 49ers ought to bounce again and problem the Rams within the NFC West. Quarterback Dak Prescott‘s return might make Dallas an element within the always-unpredictable East. Heck, perhaps the NFC South might get multiple crew. … OK, sorry. That is taking it too far. However the level is, it isn’t as if there aren’t playoff-caliber groups elsewhere within the convention. It’ll be robust for the North to get 4 groups in.
The Chiefs’ streak of 9 straight AFC West titles will come to an finish
Here is one other division by which three groups made final 12 months’s playoffs. The crew that did not employed Pete Carroll as head coach and traded for QB Geno Smith. Why cannot this be the division that will get all 4 groups in? Are the Broncos- and Chargers-shaped objects in Kansas Metropolis’s rearview mirror nearer than they seem?
Denver beefed up its already glorious protection with Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga, and it introduced in tight finish Evan Engram to provide second-year QB Bo Nix one other goal. The Chargers added a few new working backs, a few new broad receivers and signed 6-foot-7, 363-pound guard Mekhi Becton away from the Tremendous Bowl champs to additional strengthen their offensive line.
The Raiders made main upgrades at coach and quarterback. In addition they plan to construct a working sport round rookie working again Ashton Jeanty, who was among the best gamers within the draft at any place. Everybody’s gunning for quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who regarded wobbly at instances final season and noticed their flimsy move safety get embarrassingly uncovered within the Tremendous Bowl.
1:25
Why Sam Acho is not placing anybody over the Chiefs within the AFC
Sam Acho explains why the Chiefs are nonetheless forward of the Payments and Ravens within the AFC.
The decision: OVERREACTION
As wobbly because the Chiefs regarded final season, they nonetheless gained 15 video games within the common season and 17 whole. They completed 4 video games forward of the Chargers and 5 forward of the Broncos despite conceding the ultimate sport of the season in Denver by sitting their starters.
That is a ton of floor for these groups to make up, even when they each have improved their rosters. Particularly as a result of the Chiefs most likely bought higher, too!
They imagine they’ve improved at left sort out by signing Jaylon Moore and drafting Josh Simmons within the first spherical. Broad receiver Rashee Rice was sentenced Thursday to 30 days in jail, which may be served at any level throughout a five-year probationary interval, however is again from the harm that ended his season early. Moreover, Hollywood Brown is again from the ACL harm that pressured him to begin his season late. Add within the enhancements that 2024 first-round choose Xavier Worthy made all through final season, and Mahomes has cause to really feel quite a bit higher about his broad receiver group.
A wholesome working again Isiah Pacheco and a slimmed-down tight finish Travis Kelce assist spherical out a ability group decided to avenge that embarrassing Tremendous Bowl loss. The Chiefs aren’t giving this division up simply.
At the very least three of the Browns’ present quarterbacks will begin video games for them this season
With out Deshaun Watson, who’s making one other $46 million this season however is more likely to miss most, if not all, of it whereas recovering from an Achilles harm, the Browns’ present QB depth chart consists of Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. There’s a number of hypothesis that a kind of guys might get traded between now and the beginning of the season. However even when that occurs, it’s going to nonetheless be a crowded room with extra questions than solutions.
Odds are that one of many veterans — Flacco or Pickett — will open the season because the starter. However given the Browns’ historical past on the place and that the majority groups use multiple beginning quarterback per season, it is truthful to imagine the Week 1 starter will not essentially be the identical in Week 17.
The decision: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The commerce the Browns made with the Jaguars to permit Jacksonville to maneuver as much as draft Travis Hunter left Cleveland with an additional first-round choose within the 2026 draft. At that time, there can be only one 12 months left on Watson’s contract and the crew certainly may have moved on from the concept of him as its long-term future (if it hasn’t already).
With two first-rounders in a draft that is anticipated to be higher at QB than this 12 months’s, the Browns might want to go into subsequent offseason with some certainty about who they have already got on the roster. Even when Flacco or Pickett opens the season because the starter, Cleveland wants to seek out out what it has in third-round choose Gabriel or fifth-round choose Sanders. It looks as if an absolute slam-dunk that no less than three quarterbacks will begin video games for the Browns this season.
It is the Commanders’ flip to win the NFC East
Not a lot was anticipated of the Commanders final season, however they have been one of many nice surprises. Led by new head coach Dan Quinn and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the Commanders gained their closing 5 video games of the common season (together with one in opposition to the Eagles) to make the playoffs as a wild card. Then they upset the Buccaneers and Lions to advance to the NFC Championship Sport.
Washington’s 12-5 document put the crew solely two video games behind Philadelphia, and so they traded for veterans equivalent to left sort out Laremy Tunsil and broad receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. in an effort to take the subsequent step and maximize Daniels’ rookie-contract window. The Eagles nonetheless look phenomenal and deservedly will open because the division favorites, however no crew has repeated as NFC East champion since 2004. The Commanders have their sights set on greater issues in 2025.
2:16
Can the Commanders surpass the Eagles within the NFC East?
Mike Tannenbaum and Peter Rosenberg element why they’ve the Commanders profitable the NFC East.
The decision: NOT AN OVERREACTION
It is most likely truly the Giants’ flip, as a result of each different NFC East crew has gained the division no less than thrice since New York final did it in 2011. However since a Giants division title can be a fair greater shock than what Washington did final season, let’s preserve it targeted on the Commanders for now.
Quinn took the Falcons to the Tremendous Bowl in his second season as Atlanta’s head coach, so he is not one to mood expectations. The expertise Daniels bought and the poise he has already proven in fourth quarters of big video games ought to solely assist him transferring ahead.
Championship-seasoned veterans equivalent to Bobby Wagner and Zach Ertz, who have been introduced in to assist jump-start a recent tradition, are again for an additional run. Veteran cornerback Marshon Lattimore ought to be higher than he was in his post-trade-deadline stint final season. And whereas there isn’t any cause to doubt the Eagles, it is extremely robust to repeat as champion on this division.
Dallas ought to be higher with quarterback Dak Prescott again wholesome, however Washington appears to have greater than the Cowboys do. It’s totally doable that the Commanders take one other leap and end on prime within the East.
Baker Mayfield will lead the Buccaneers to a different division title — and land an enormous new contract
The Buccaneers have gained the NFC South 4 years in a row — twice with Tom Brady and twice with Mayfield. The 12 months earlier than that streak began, they gained the Tremendous Bowl from a wild-card spot.
Tampa Bay has quietly been one of the persistently good groups despite tons of adjustments, and Mayfield’s profession resurgence has been a significant cause for that. The Bucs bought him for subsequent to nothing earlier than the 2023 season, then rewarded him with a three-year, $100 million contract previous to the 2024 season.
After this 12 months, Mayfield may have one 12 months and $27 million left on his deal. He is solely 30 years outdated, and if he leads the Bucs to a fifth straight division title with one more new offensive coordinator, it’s important to imagine he’ll be in line for a fair greater extension this time round.
The decision: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Falcons seem like the highest challenger, however they could not unseat the Bucs final season even after beating Tampa Bay in each head-to-head matchups. Broad receiver Chris Godwin ought to be again for the Bucs from his season-ending ankle harm, and so they made one of many sneaky-good offseason pickups in edge rusher Haason Reddick.
It is truthful to be involved concerning the potential lack of left sort out Tristan Wirfs for the primary month of the season due to a knee harm, or concerning the offensive coordinator leaving for a head teaching job for the second offseason in a row. However it might be unfair to imagine the Bucs haven’t got the flexibility to unravel their very own issues. Mayfield discovered a house in Tampa Bay and has been persistently productive since he bought there. The Bucs need to be the division favorites. And in the event that they win it once more, Mayfield may have a robust case for an enormous elevate.
