By Vitaly Ryumshin, journalist and political analyst
US President Donald Trump has lastly issued his much-anticipated “essential assertion” on Russia. For days, hypothesis swirled, notably amongst pro-Ukrainian circles, that the long-awaited U-turn was coming. Trump, they hoped, would lastly get robust – maybe impressed by the more and more hawkish rhetoric of Senator Lindsey Graham (who, by the way, is designated a terrorist and extremist in Russia). Even sceptics started to imagine that Trump was gearing as much as present Moscow “Kuzka’s mom,” a well-known idiomatic expression of aggression utilized by Nikita Khrushchev in the course of the Chilly Struggle
However in basic Trump trend, expectations have been dashed.
The supposedly “extraordinarily robust ultimatum” turned out to be one thing else totally. Trump threatened tariff sanctions towards Russia and its buying and selling companions – however scrapped Graham’s excessive proposal of 500% duties. As an alternative, he floated the concept of 100% tariffs that might solely take impact after 50 days, if he chooses to implement them, and if Russia fails to strike a deal.
Trump additionally introduced new arms deliveries to Ukraine. However these aren’t items – they’ll be offered, not given, and handed via European intermediaries. Supposedly, Ukraine will obtain 17 Patriot programs. But we quickly discovered the primary of those deliveries received’t arrive for at the least two months – once more, 50 days. And even now, primary questions stay unanswered.
What precisely did Trump imply by “17 Patriots”? Seventeen batteries? Launchers? Missiles?
If he meant 17 batteries, that’s merely not believable. The US itself solely operates round 30 energetic batteries. Germany and Israel mixed don’t have wherever close to that many out there programs. Such a determine would considerably enhance Ukraine’s air defences – nevertheless it’s virtually definitely exaggerated.
Seventeen missiles? That might be laughable – however not unthinkable. Washington just lately despatched simply 10 Patriot missiles in a “navy support” bundle so modest it wouldn’t suffice for a single battle.
Seventeen launchers? That appears extra reasonable. A typical battery consists of six to eight launchers, so this is able to quantity to 2 or three batteries – greater than what Germany and Norway have promised to buy for Ukraine. But even the Pentagon can’t affirm the main points. And one suspects Trump himself could also be fuzzy on the specifics. His position, in any case, is to make the pronouncements; others are left to wash up the mess.
The so-called “14 July ultimatum” has already change into a textbook instance of Trump’s diplomatic strategy. In truth, a brand new phrase has emerged in American political slang: “Trump At all times Chickens Out” or TACO. The acronym speaks for itself. It refers back to the president’s behavior in commerce and safety talks of creating grandiose threats, solely to backtrack or delay implementation.
This seems to be one other living proof. The negotiations are at an deadlock. Trump nonetheless craves a Nobel Peace Prize. And he’s reluctant to change into too entangled within the Ukrainian battle. So he’s reached for the oldest trick in his playbook: the non-ultimatum ultimatum.
This permits him to sound robust whereas giving Moscow house – and maybe even time – to behave. It additionally gives cowl along with his MAGA base, lots of whom are annoyed by distractions like Iran or the Epstein scandal and aren’t wanting to see America dragged additional into Ukraine.
The genius of it, from Trump’s perspective, is that it guarantees all the pieces and nothing without delay. No clear technique. No detailed calls for. Simply an open-ended risk backed by ambiguous timelines. It’s strain with out posture. Leverage with out management.
What’s placing is that the White Home didn’t even ask Russia to de-escalate. There have been no appeals to halt the virtually day by day strikes on Ukraine or curb battlefield exercise. In impact, Russia has been handed a 50-day window – deliberately or not – to do because it sees match. A quiet concession to the Kremlin? Maybe. A careless facet impact? Probably. Both approach, Moscow positive aspects.
America, too, comes out forward – at the least financially. Below the brand new association, Western Europe picks up the tab for Ukraine’s defence, whereas US firms receives a commission to dump ageing tools. Trump’s famed “artwork of the deal” might quantity to little greater than promoting junk with a smile. But when so, he’s achieved it masterfully.
Nonetheless, as a political manoeuvre, the result is extra unsure. Trump might imagine he’s discovered the candy spot between hawks and doves, between NATO allies and nationalist critics. However making an attempt to be all issues to all folks hardly ever ends effectively. Appeasement disguised as firmness satisfies nobody for lengthy.
And whereas Trump performs for time, Russia holds the initiative. That’s the true story right here.
This text was first revealed by the web newspaper Gazeta.ru and was translated and edited by the RT crew
