BBC Budapest Correspondent
BBCHungarians have a preferred saying: “Visszanyal a fagyi”. Translation: “The ice-cream licks again.” In different phrases, be careful, as a result of what you take pleasure in devouring, may take pleasure in devouring you.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has assiduously attacked a liberal world view for no less than 20 years, remodeling the nation into what he has variously referred to as an “intolerant democracy” and nation of “Christian liberty”.
In the meantime he has drawn admirers world wide, together with US Deputy President JD Vance and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. US President Donald Trump has referred to as Orban “good” and “a troublesome individual”.
“Probably the most revered males, they name him a powerful man,” Trump stated in September 2024.
Forward of the following Hungarian election in April 2026, the LGBTQ neighborhood look like amongst Orban’s targets – his Fidesz celebration rubber stamped a brand new regulation that sought to ban Satisfaction from going forward. And but between 100,000 and 200,000 individuals turned out final month – up from simply 35,000 final yr.
However watching enormous crowds march by Budapest to rejoice homosexual delight, free speech and the correct to assemble – all in defiance of the ban – many surprise: might the liberal worldview chew again?
Attila Kisbenedek by way of GettyAnd in some methods, that in itself is the mistaken query. Orban’s energy is certainly now below menace, however not in the best way – or from the individuals – one may count on.
As the true problem comes not from the liberal left, however the centre proper.
A shock challenger from Orban’s personal circle
Peter Magyar, a 44-year-old previously of Orban’s personal circle, appeared as a shock challenger in February 2024.
This adopted a scandal involving a choice to pardon a person convicted of overlaying up baby sexual abuse that led to President Katalin Novak resigning on stay tv. Justice Minister Judit Varga (Magyar’s ex-wife) additionally resigned – and the scandal dealt a blow to Orban’s declare to face for conventional household values.
Magyar gave an extended interview to Partizan, the flagship opposition YouTube channel, blasting what he referred to as the nepotism and corruption of the governing celebration.
Janos Kummer/Getty PicturesRobert Puzser, an opposition activist who heads a brand new, non-party initiative referred to as Residents Resistance, says that Magyar is treading fastidiously, amid Fidesz officers and sure quarters of the media making an attempt to painting him as a liberal or leftist.
Magyar, he argues, is making an attempt to keep away from alienating his conservative base within the countryside, which till lately was Orban’s undisputed heartland. And he has created his personal highly effective narrative – of a Hungary that’s collapsing.
Most nationwide polls put Tisza, Hungary’s essential opposition celebration led by Magyar, between 9% and 18% forward of Orban’s celebration. Just one, the pro-government thinktank Viewpoint Institute, nonetheless places Fidesz narrowly forward.
The parlous state of state hospitals, state colleges, and state railways are all getting used in opposition to Orban by Magyar and his celebration. Now, Orban’s long-established playbook, so admired overseas, is beginning to fail at residence – and it leaves Hungary nearer than ever to ousting a person who has dominated it for the previous 15 years.
Orban’s tried-and-tested technique
Orban has been in energy for 19 of the 35 years because the fall of Communism in 1990, making him some of the skilled leaders within the EU. Within the early Nineties, Fidesz broke away from its liberal roots, and Orban instilled a brand new conservative, nationalist, right-wing id.
In 2015, as scores of individuals travelled to Europe asking for asylum, Orban referred to them as a part of “a migratory motion composed of financial migrants, refugees and likewise overseas fighters”. He has opposed navy assist for Ukraine because the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, and likewise opposes Ukraine’s bid for EU membership.
A cornerstone of Orban’s playbook has been his capability to establish what his voters concern: this was true of every of his landslide victories, in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022.
Reuters/Lisa LeutnerA public opinion survey by the Publicus company carried out from 23-25 June discovered 45% of individuals had been in favour of the Satisfaction march in Budapest and 48% had been in opposition to. Simply 8% of Fidesz voters accredited, nevertheless, so it was a flag to rally his personal camp behind.
For the reason that march, Fidesz supporters have shared some provocative photographs from Budapest Satisfaction, together with nudity and the story of a person arrested by police for masturbating in public.
After the occasion, folks singer Marianna Majorosi, whose music was carried out throughout a drag queen present on the Satisfaction occasion, stated, “it deeply upsets me that as a performer I’ve no proper to stop somebody from doing this to my voice”. Orban expressed his assist for her on Fb.
In 2022, the federal government organised a referendum on baby safety to coincide with the overall election. The questions included: “Do you assist permitting youngsters in public colleges to take part in sexual orientation lessons with out parental consent?” And, “do you assist the promotion of gender reassignment for minors?”
A complete of three.7 million Hungarians took half, with the overwhelming majority voting, “No”. Authorities officers have since cited that referendum end result as proof that Hungarians oppose what Satisfaction stands for.
The winner takes all
One other key to Orban’s playbook is that the winner takes all. Orban misplaced energy in 2002 then returned to workplace in 2010, and in a brand new electoral regulation of 2011 he shrank Parliament from 386 seats to 199 and abolished the second spherical of elections, successfully channelling votes to the strongest celebration.
Whereas the fractious opposition events fought for the crumbs, Fidesz took the cake. They took 45% of the vote in 2014, which translated to 67% of seats in Parliament. The previous system of proportional illustration was changed by one thing nearer to the first-past-the-post system, as used within the UK.
He has additionally appointed Fidesz-friendly judges to the Constitutional and Supreme Court docket.
Tim Sloan/ AFP by way of GettyIn 2014 he stated that the “intolerant state” he was establishing “doesn’t reject the basic ideas of liberalism reminiscent of freedom… however it doesn’t make this ideology the central component of state organisation”.
Orban remains to be struggling to seek out the correct identify for his invention. András Lánczi, a thinker extensively thought of a powerful affect on the prime minister, calls it “political realism… Concepts based mostly on expertise relatively than the utopias and moralising that leftists like a lot”.
How he gained over world leaders
Orban guidelines by bullet-points, easy messages culled from unpublished opinion surveys commissioned by his authorities to seek out out what’s worrying the general public. Professional-government media, social media, and nationwide billboards then act as an echo chamber for these messages.
Some leaders abroad seem to admire his method, whereas many MAGA Republicans love Orban for confronting “woke” tradition.
Reuters/Carlos BarriaThe Slovak and Georgian prime ministers are additionally seemingly agency admirers, as are Alice Weidel (Various for Germany), Geert Wilders (Dutch Occasion for Freedom), and Herbert Kickl (Austrian Freedom Occasion).
Orban has instilled in his countryfolk “a brand new self-confidence”, Mr Lánczi suggests, after centuries of overseas rule. “This nation has turn out to be stronger, and we wish to consider that we aren’t inferior to some other nations.”
However simply as he reaches the peak of his fame overseas, the carpet is seemingly being tugged from below his ft at residence.
Are cracks beginning to seem?
Peter Magyar has toured the nation nearly repeatedly, attacking the federal government for circumstances in hospitals, a failing rail community and public service wages which are among the many lowest in Europe.
He attracts giant crowds, and his visits to hospitals, colleges or care houses are broadcast stay on Fb, with many attracting tens of hundreds of views.
“We’ll re-build this nation collectively, brick by brick,” Magyar repeats. “Brick by brick!” chant the crowds, in unison.
Fidesz publicists have dismissed him as a hole “messiah”, or a traitor from their very own ranks. However Magyar has given the general public an alternate imaginative and prescient of repairing the homeland.
Orban has himself began to make some errors, like backing the ultra-nationalist candidate George Simion within the current Romanian presidential election, regardless of an extended historical past of anti-Hungarian remarks. He thought of him to be a helpful ally within the European Parliament the place he shares Orban’s message that “Christian Europe” is below menace. However Simion was the shock loser of the second spherical of that election.
Orban’s failure to cease Satisfaction, after he promised his supporters it will not happen, additionally suggests some weakening of his energy.
SOPA Pictures by way of GettyHowever maybe most critically, the Hungarian financial system, closely depending on the German market, particularly German vehicles manufactured in Hungary, is stagnating. Orban can not ship an improved lifestyle.
Even András Lánczi, who believes Orban will win the following election, says: “Unavoidably, there are such a lot of conflicts throughout such a very long time [in power]”, conflicts that “erode belief, erode respect, erode a variety of constructive issues that unite that political neighborhood.”
Battle for the soul of Hungary
Defeat for Orban, who has dominated Hungary for the previous 15 years, can be monumental.
“Orban is ready to mobilise his core voters, which is about two million individuals, however it’s not sufficient to win the elections,” says Zoltan Kiszelly, a political analyst near Fidesz.
The Tisza celebration now additionally has about two million supporters. Greater than 5 million Hungarians voted within the 2022 election, with a 69% turnout – so the election in April 2026 will seemingly be determined by those that are at the moment undecided.
“We’re in search of coverage points that may entice these 500,000 to at least one million extra voters who’re wanted to outnumber the opposition,” Mr Kiszelly defined.
In 2022, amid the warfare in Ukraine, Orban portrayed himself because the “peace” candidate, and claimed the opposition would drag Hungary into warfare. It was a profitable tactic in a rustic, typically overrun in its historical past by overseas armies. In 2026, Ukraine might assist Orban win once more, Mr Kiszelly believes.
Valery Sharifulin by way of GettyBut if the warfare in Ukraine is over by then, Orban “the political realist” will be capable of declare credit score because the Western chief who warned that Ukraine can not defeat the may of Russia. Or, if the warfare continues, Fidesz might step up its marketing campaign in opposition to Manfred Weber, chief of the European Folks’s Occasion (EPP), which helps continued Western navy provides for Ukraine.
“Orban can current himself, as soon as once more, because the dove of peace,” Mr Kiszelly explains.
Orban additionally depicts his good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin as a assure of low cost Russian gasoline and oil for Hungarian shoppers – continually below menace from EU sanctions in opposition to Russia. (Although Orban has not efficiently blocked any of the 18 packages of EU sanctions in opposition to Russia thus far.)
However his opponents hope that Tisza, and Magyar, can preserve their polling lead. Mr Puzser, the opposition activist, believes Tisza will win “in the end”.
He describes Hungary as being at a crossroads. “There’s a path resulting in a democratic transition from this semi-authoritarian, semi-constitutional system,” he argues, “and there’s a despotic path resulting in a dictatorship.”
As for Orban, he stated in March that there was a battle “for the soul of the Western world” – some see subsequent April’s election as a battle for the soul of Hungary.
Prime picture credit: Anna Moneymaker/ Leon Neal/ Pierre Crom by way of Getty
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