OPINION — In latest weeks, studies of Russia contemplating formal engagement and recognition of the Taliban have reignited debate round worldwide approaches to the de facto rulers of Afghanistan.
However opposite to assumptions of ideological or strategic alignment, Moscow’s overtures seem rooted extra in concern than affinity.
A Safety-Pushed Outreach
Russia’s posture towards the Taliban should be considered via a regional safety lens. In intelligence and counterterrorism circles, there may be growing alarm in Moscow over the surge in international extremist fighters now working with impunity inside Afghanistan. Russia has lengthy claimed that ISIS-Okay and affiliated teams get pleasure from covert help from Western intelligence companies, a declare that’s exaggerated however nonetheless fuels deep strategic paranoia inside the Kremlin.
Latest intelligence studies point out a notable uptick in international terrorist presence, significantly in northern and jap provinces bordering Central Asia. Russia is worried not nearly Afghanistan’s instability, however about its spillover potential into Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, all international locations with fragile inside balances and historic ties to Moscow.
On this context, engagement with the Taliban is much less about diplomatic recognition and extra about gaining operational entry, establishing surveillance footholds, and guaranteeing a minimal degree of information-sharing. For Russia, the Taliban could also be a tactical irritant, however international jihadist teams are a strategic risk.
Taliban’s Quest for Legitimacy
From the Taliban’s facet, any engagement by main powers is shortly repackaged as de facto recognition—a type of validation they desperately search. Missing inside legitimacy and having seized energy via drive, the Taliban views exterior recognition as a shortcut to worldwide acceptance, whatever the phrases or the motives of the recognizing get together.
Whether or not Russia’s engagement is rooted in safety fears or strategic containment is irrelevant to the Taliban; what issues is the optics. This dynamic creates a harmful asymmetry, the place tactical coordination by international states could be misrepresented as endorsement of Taliban governance.
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The China Issue: Quiet Watchfulness
Hypothesis has mounted that China could observe go well with. Nonetheless, Beijing’s pursuits in Afghanistan stay essentially totally different from Moscow’s. For China, the overriding concern is the presence of Uyghur militants “East Turkistan Islamic Motion”, lots of whom have traditionally sought refuge in Afghanistan’s east.
On the identical time, China’s strategic posture is fixated on its world rivalry with the US, significantly within the domains of financial dominance and technological superiority—most notably in synthetic intelligence. Afghanistan, on this framework, is a peripheral concern. So long as Beijing can safe its western flank via covert monetary leverage, commerce entry, and intelligence coordination, it has little incentive to formally acknowledge the Taliban. Such a transfer would carry diplomatic prices with none significant strategic return.
A Phrase of Warning for the Worldwide Neighborhood
Whereas Russia and China could justify Taliban engagement primarily based on slender nationwide safety imperatives, these strikes carry broader strategic and moral dangers. First, they undermine the worldwide consensus that recognition should be contingent on inclusive governance, human rights, and counterterrorism compliance. Second, such recognition dangers legitimizing radicalization and authoritarian consolidation via drive, probably emboldening comparable actions elsewhere.
Lastly, tactical engagement by states like Russia should be fastidiously managed to keep away from the legitimization of Taliban rule, significantly in media narratives. Intelligence-sharing or backchannel coordination is a longstanding actuality in battle zones, but it surely should be explicitly framed as counterterrorism containment, not state-to-state diplomacy.
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Russia’s recognition of the Taliban is much less an indication of ideological convergence and extra a mirrored image of strategic nervousness. Afghanistan, below Taliban management, is quickly changing into an ungoverned house—one which exterior powers more and more concern greater than favor.
For the US, these developments signify a crucial inflection level. As world powers transfer from isolation to tactical engagement with the Taliban, Washington should lead in upholding the precept that recognition ought to by no means precede reform. Any diplomatic engagement—whether or not multilateral or bilateral—should be explicitly tied to measurable outcomes: significant counterterrorism cooperation, the safety of civil liberties, and inclusive political participation that displays Afghanistan’s ethnic and social variety.
Within the absence of such requirements, the worldwide neighborhood dangers legitimizing a regime that has proven little intent to evolve—and appreciable capability to destabilize.
On the identical time, the US ought to take a parallel step to help the formation of a respectable political opposition to the Taliban—one which represents the hopes of Afghans for a sovereign, democratic, and inclusive future. Working in coordination with worldwide companions, Washington will help this coalition articulate a long-term political imaginative and prescient for the nation. Although restricted in scope, such a transfer would ship a strong message to Afghans inside and out of doors the nation, to regional allies and adversaries alike, and even to the Taliban: that Afghanistan’s future is not going to be outlined by drive alone. Most significantly, it could empower Afghans themselves significantly the brand new era to steer the battle for his or her nation’s future.
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