Survey Says is a weekly sequence rounding up crucial polling traits or knowledge factors you want to find out about, plus a vibe test on a pattern that’s driving politics.
Republicans flip-flop-flip on same-sex marriage
June 26 marked the 10-year anniversary of the Supreme Court docket ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges, which legalized same-sex marriage nationwide. The court docket was catching as much as the American public’s altering attitudes on the problem. However now these attitudes are altering once more, not less than amongst Republicans.
In 1996, simply 27% of People thought same-sex marriages have been legitimate and worthy of the identical authorized rights as heterosexual marriages, in response to Gallup. By Could 2015, the month earlier than the Obergefell ruling, that share had slowly and fairly steadily risen to 60%. Now it’s 68%.
Even Republicans got here round on the problem. In 1996, simply 16% supported same-sex marriage, however in 2021 and 2022, their help hit a excessive of 55%. Since then, nonetheless, it has tumbled. This yr, simply 41% of Republicans help same-sex marriage.
As a result of 88% of Democrats help same-sex marriage, there’s now a shocking 47-percentage-point hole between the events—the biggest since Gallup has tracked the query. Oddly, although, this homophobic backsliding appears contained to Republicans. Independents help same-sex marriage at almost the identical stage as Democrats do—76%—and it’s grown since 2022, when help was at 72%.
This Republican backlash is probably going the results of the GOP’s viciously adverse assaults on LGBTQ+ folks and rights extra broadly. Round 2022, when the Republican citizens was most supportive of same-sex marriage, their get together’s leaders coalesced round smearing queer folks and their Democratic allies as “groomers,” reviving a homophobic lie about queer adults sexually abusing kids.
Within the fall of 2022, Republicans underperformed within the midterm elections. However reasonably than study from their bigoted errors, the get together has leaned into them, additional demonizing one of many LGBTQ+ neighborhood’s most marginalized teams: transgender folks, and trans youth specifically. Final yr, then-candidate Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans viciously attacked trans folks, making an attempt to scare voters into backing the GOP.
And it would’ve labored. The electoral success of the anti-trans message is disputable. Within the days earlier than the 2024 election, 80% of possible voters needed each Democratic and Republican candidates to focus much less on transgender points and extra on the financial system, in response to a ballot from Information for Progress.
Nonetheless, it appears clear that the Republican Get together’s anti-LGBTQ+ messaging is igniting a backlash, although it stays to be seen how far this wildfire of hate will unfold. In spite of everything, the Supreme Court docket is now rather more conservative than it was in 2015, and its right-wing majority has evinced little respect for precedent or civil rights.
An enormous miss within the Large Apple
This previous Tuesday night time, Zohran Mamdani, a state lawmaker and self-described democratic socialist, pulled off what seems to be a shock victory in New York Metropolis’s Democratic mayoral major towards disgraced former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. And maybe none have been extra shocked than pollsters, which, with one exception, predicted a big Cuomo win.
In polls performed for the reason that begin of April, Cuomo led Mamdani by a mean of 14 factors within the first spherical of town’s ranked-choice voting course of. And but Mamdani ended up profitable the primary spherical by 7 factors, with 93% of votes counted as of Friday.
Native elections are notoriously laborious to ballot. Even so, a 21-point miss is a horrible displaying.
Many pollsters say the error primarily stemmed from surveys together with solely those that’d voted in earlier primaries, which brought about them to overlook first-time voters this yr. Only one pollster—the left-leaning Public Coverage Polling—confirmed Mamdani main the primary spherical of voting. As a result of PPP precisely acknowledged that Mamdani was energizing younger and first-time voters, they gave additional weight to these teams and included folks no matter whether or not they’d voted beforehand.
“Tens of hundreds of individuals voted of their first Mayoral election this yr,” the agency stated in a press release revealed Tuesday night time, after Mamdani’s presumptive victory. “We discovered those that didn’t vote in 2021 breaking 63-18 for Mamdani. We included them in our ballot.”
The first’s last outcomes are anticipated on July 1, after ranked-choice tabulations happen. If Mamdani has certainly gained, he’d face Mayor Eric Adams within the basic election this November. Adams, who ditched the Democratic Get together and is working as an impartial, has an atrocious approval ranking largely as a consequence of him buddying as much as Trump, which he seemingly did in order that the federal authorities would drop his corruption indictment. That obvious quid professional quo might maintain Adams out of jail, however it might additionally kick him out of Gracie Mansion.
In November, Mamdani would additionally go up towards Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa, who based the volunteer crime-prevention group Guardian Angels and misplaced the 2021 mayoral race by almost 40 factors. He might also face … Andrew Cuomo, who refuses to rule out working as an impartial, as a result of this asshole is identical to that.
Nonetheless, Mamdani could be the possible front-runner for the mayorship for the reason that Democratic candidate is normally the heavy favourite. He’s additionally introduced collectively a recent, cross-cultural, multiracial, class-spanning coalition as a consequence of his relentless campaigning over fixing town’s cost-of-living disaster.
Plus, dude cuts a stellar advert:
Iran, Iran so far-off (from my lately held political opinions)
America first, now not. The Republican base seems to be following Trump wherever he stumbles, even when it’s into the center of a battle between Israel and Iran.
Days earlier than Trump’s determination to assault three nuclear websites in Iran final weekend, a YouGov/Economist ballot discovered that solely 16% of People supported the U.S. getting concerned within the battle. That included simply 23% of Republicans.
However in a YouGov/Economist ballot fielded June 20 to 23—i.e., proper earlier than, throughout, and after the strikes—29% of People supported the U.S. attacking Iran’s nuclear websites, pushed largely by a majority of Republicans (57%) who supported the strikes. Simply 9% of Democrats and 21% of independents felt the identical manner. This icy response within the broader citizens might have persuaded the Pentagon to confusingly declare that regardless of immediately attacking a hostile overseas nation amid an ongoing battle, it didn’t need to be a part of that battle.
And now a more moderen ballot, performed by Quinnipiac College solely after the U.S. strikes on Iran, finds that 81% of Republican voters help the U.S. becoming a member of Israel’s assaults on Iran. Discuss a flip-flop. In the meantime, Democrats and independents didn’t change their beliefs that a lot: 75% and 60%, respectively, oppose the assaults.
There’s much less want for the GOP to fabricate consent nowadays. Not solely do they probably not care what the general public desires, additionally they have a base of voters prepared to comply with them wherever, ideological consistency be damned.
Any updates?
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People hate Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, however they’re positive to hate them as soon as it comes time for back-to-school buying. Early buyers are already getting slapped with greater costs, in response to a brand new ballot from Morning Seek the advice of. Among the many 34% of American dad and mom who’ve began back-to-school buying, 62% say garments are dearer than final yr, whereas majorities additionally say the identical factor about electronics (61%), residence items (61%), faculty provides (57%), and books (54%). Whereas most (59%) maintain inflation answerable for the upper costs, greater than 1 in 3 blame tariffs immediately.
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The paywall: it, you hate it, you attempt to discover the data elsewhere as a result of now the whole lot is a subscription. New knowledge from Pew Analysis Heart backs that up: 53% of People who hit a paywall will seek for the information elsewhere, whereas one other 32% will simply quit trying. Just one% of People who bump right into a paywall pays for entry. Bother is, information ain’t free, and promoting {dollars} are withering. So please, in case you can, chip in to Day by day Kos and maintain the positioning paywall-free. You’ll be able to even purchase your individual subscription, ditch the advertisements, and assist Day by day Kos combat Trump’s Justice Division because it comes after us.
Vibe test
The information is a foul place nowadays, and that’s unhealthy information for Trump in terms of all his favourite coverage subjects. The president is underwater on his dealing with of inflation, commerce, the financial system, and even immigration, in response to election analyst Nate Silver’s polling averages.
