Individuals maintain flags of Iran and Hezbollah in addition to posters of Supreme Chief Khamenei as Iranians take to the streets within the downtown Enghelab (Revolution) Sq. in Tehran, Iran on June 24, 2025, to rejoice the ceasefire after a 12-day warfare with Israel.
NEGAR/Center East Photos/AFP through Getty Photos
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NEGAR/Center East Photos/AFP through Getty Photos
President Trump doubled down on his claims that the U.S. strikes in Iran final weekend “obliterated” its key nuclear services, lashing out at reviews of a leaked intel evaluation, which said that Iran’s nuclear program had solely been set again by “a couple of months.”
Chatting with reporters whereas attending the NATO summit within the Netherlands, Trump stated he was assured the battle between Israel and Iran was over. The 2 sides agreed to a ceasefire immediately, after Trump declared one on social media Monday night time.
Trump stated on the summit that he had plans to speak with Iran subsequent week, however stated he did not suppose it was mandatory to come back to a take care of Iran over abandoning its nuclear ambitions.
“We could signal an settlement,” he stated, however later added “I do not suppose it is necessary,” reiterating the success of the U.S. strikes.
President Donald Trump, heart, speaks throughout a media convention on the NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, Wednesday, June 25, 2025.
Matthias Schrader/AP
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Matthias Schrader/AP
However specialists on the area and Iran’s nuclear program say that whatever the quantity of harm completed to Iran’s nuclear services, deliberate negotiations resulting in a long-lasting settlement are essential. In any other case, a resumption of the warfare – which may embrace the U.S. – appears inevitable.
“This ceasefire, for my part, goes to be very quick lived for each the Israelis and the Individuals, until there’s a very critical political technique, and President Trump primarily takes that leap,” says Ellie Geranmayeh, senior coverage fellow and Iran skilled on the European Council on Overseas Relations.
Dana Stroul, who was the Pentagon’s high Center East official between 2021 and 2023, stated the necessity for negotiations as quickly as potential is “completely important.”
“It is a very uncommon strategy to method a ceasefire,” says Stroul, now analysis director at The Washington Institute for Close to East Coverage. “There’s nothing written down, nothing articulated, no timeline and no recognized mechanism for learn how to mediate accusations of dishonest.”
A “head-spinning” two weeks
Wednesday’s feedback from Trump have been the newest in what Geranmayeh known as a “head-spinning two-week interval” between Israel, Iran and the U.S. that has left many watchers of the area struggling to catch up.
It started with deliberate nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, which had already gone a number of rounds however have been canceled when Israel launched a shock assault on Iran in mid-June. The talks had initially been going effectively, however had begun to stall within the extra technical particulars.
The U.S. then struck a number of nuclear websites inside Iran with huge bunker-buster bombs final weekend, as the one nation in possession of each the weapons and the supply system to make such a strike.
Reporters take pictures of a displayed graphic as Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine communicate throughout a information convention on the Pentagon in Washington, Sunday, June 22, 2025, after the U.S. navy struck three websites in Iran, immediately becoming a member of Israel’s effort to destroy the nation’s nuclear program.
Alex Brandon/AP
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Alex Brandon/AP
Since that strike, a number of Iranian officers have overtly talked about persevering with the nation’s nuclear program – which Iran maintains is peaceable, however which Israel says was geared toward constructing a nuclear bomb – significantly with reference to enriching uranium, a key element for a nuclear weapon.
“President Trump has to discover a manner by which to get again to the nuclear negotiating desk as shortly as potential,” says Vali Nasr, Iran specialist and professor at Johns Hopkins College.
Nasr careworn that point isn’t on the facet of the U.S. proper now.
“The Iranians could already be busy constructing a bomb, having realized that they have been simply invaded by two nuclear armed international locations, and that, in the end, you realize, the one option to face such a menace is nuclear weapons,” he says.
Iran can rebuild
Specialists have lengthy warned that attacking Iran may have the alternative impact to what its adversaries need – as an alternative of deterring its nuclear ambitions, it may velocity them up.
“I have been making this level for at the least 30 years, that each one that issues is reconstitution,” says Kenneth Pollack, vp for coverage on the Center East Institute, speaking concerning the rebuilding of Iran’s nuclear program.
Pollack says there merely is not a manner it may be curtailed by navy motion alone.
“Irrespective of what number of scientists the Israelis kill, they don’t seem to be going to have the ability to assassinate Iran again to nuclear ignorance. The information is simply too widespread throughout the Iranian system,” he says.
He factors to the truth that there may be nonetheless a lot about Iran’s nuclear program that’s unknown, particularly after the newest hostilities, together with the place a big stockpile of extremely enriched uranium is perhaps.
Rafael Grossi, the Director Normal of the Worldwide Atomic Power Company, indicated on Monday that there is a probability it survived the assaults, having been moved by Iran forward of time — however stated that the nuclear watchdog at present has no accounting of it.
Iran has restricted its interplay with IAEA inspectors for a number of years, though they have been nonetheless allowed to observe declared nuclear websites. On Wednesday, Iran’s parliament really helpful a invoice that successfully suspended cooperation with the company. On Thursday, the nation’s Guardian Council totally accredited it.
Iran has made clear that the suspension doesn’t imply it can pull out of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, however it can forestall IAEA inspections of Iran’s bombed nuclear services.
“The Iranian regime has invested many years in its nuclear program and likewise an unparalleled quantity of sources,” says Stroul, of The Washington Institute for Close to East Coverage. “So to suppose that after lower than two weeks, they’re simply going to take a knee and abandon their complete nuclear ambitions is probably going a brief sighted method.”
Talks will not be simple
Trump has signaled that U.S. and Iranian officers can be assembly subsequent week.
Shira Efron, director of analysis at Israel Coverage Discussion board, a New York-based analysis group, says that is excellent news, if true.
“An settlement would ship one thing much more sustainable than the ceasefire that now we have,” she says. “The query is, what is going on to come back out of those talks? They can not be talks only for the sake of talks.”
These talks, in the event that they occur, are nearly definitely going to be sophisticated, given the extraordinarily technical nature of the nuclear concern, and the hardened positions on either side.
“That is the actual take a look at for the artwork of the deal, proper?” says Nasr, of Johns Hopkins. “Do you even have the diplomats with the authority to barter, to do the heavy lifting? Do you’ve gotten the proper workforce to do this? It isn’t solely intention, it is the capability to ship.”
Geranmayeh, who consulted throughout the diplomatic monitor that led to the 2015 nuclear deal below Obama, says in some ways in which deal helped lay a pathway for talks at present. However with out worldwide inspectors accessing Iranian services, she says it will be laborious to know what precisely to barter about now.
“Although we principally know what the options are and how one can put the Rubik’s Dice again collectively, the technical facet has change into harder,” Geranmayeh says.
Like placing a Rubik’s Dice again collectively blindfolded, she says.
