OPINION — As specialists studiously debate what the most recent Israel-Iran combating will result in, together with a attainable Iranian collapse, one enduring however much less understood actuality goes principally untreated: Iranians and Individuals are extra alike than they’re totally different, and that likeness holds hope for a friendlier future. A brand new Iranian revolution would carry vital uncertainty and danger. However it might additionally carry to the fore Iranian beliefs that, in some ways, are additionally very American.
A Palpable Likeness
A couple of years in the past, whereas having fun with a relaxed dinner with a senior Iraqi officer, he proceeded to lecture me and some different Individuals on why he thought that America and Iran had been destined to return collectively. He delivered a monologue concerning the similarities between the American and Iranian folks, which I initially doubted however subsequently vetted with quite a few Iran specialists who largely agreed. His premise, which I now consider to be principally correct, boiled down to a few commonalities between Individuals and Iranians: we’re imbued with a revolutionary spirit and nationwide pleasure, we’re unyielding entrepreneurs, and we’re bureaucratic in our official decisionmaking, typically to a fault.
- Revolutionary Spirit – Individuals love their revolution. We have a good time it frequently, and we beckon it in virtually each nationwide speech and theme. I don’t need to show this to the Western reader as a result of it’s ever-present. However, polling constantly reveals America as among the many most, if not essentially the most, “patriotic,” and our revolutionary zeal is at its middle. For Iranians, their id has been centered on revolution since 1979. That connection to the revolution has diminished, if not depleted, however the spirit of revolution as a super, even for these against the present regime, is foundational. My dinner visitor made this level clear: it’s not the 1979 revolution that has endured, however the underdog angle that perseveres, inspiring Iranians to outline their very own future — a drive that makes Iranians and Individuals so alike.
- Unyielding Entrepreneurship – America is the core of entrepreneurship on the earth. Efforts to rank such traits checklist the US as second or third, and the US is second solely to China in patents; nevertheless, the US has led international innovation for the final century. As for Iran, the nation constantly punches above its weight in such classes. Certainly, Iranians, like Individuals, take pleasure of their modern prowess. Iran frequently ranks among the many high performers for innovation within the Close to East, and it outpaces the overwhelming majority of its competitors as a middle-income nation. Specialists on Iran are eager to watch that, absent Western sanctions, Iran has the potential to turn into a know-how powerhouse. Certainly, the very purpose Iran is underneath sanctions, its nuclear ambitions and development, is demonstrable of its technological know-how.
- Bureaucratic Decisionmaking – Though the shared proclivity for making official choices in a bureaucratic vogue could not seem essentially the most compelling class on the floor, it demonstrates a shared, ingrained respect for rigor and order. For all our revolutionary zeal, paradoxically, that zeal falls by the wayside in our strategy to governing, which additionally has a lengthy custom in Iran. We seem totally different on the floor; the US is democratic, and Iran is theocratic, creating vital philosophical variations. Nonetheless, each are bureaucratic in follow and construction. My dinner visitor was adamant on this level, noting that, as an Iraqi caught between two rivals, he frequently endured our entrenched structural similarities.
An AI-generated comparability of Iranian and American authorities constructions, albeit simplistic, highlights the regimented forms that, at finest, characterizes each international locations’ cautious and thoughtful decisionmaking and, at worst, results in sloth. (Writer-prompted AI-generated graphic)
Commonalities Might Turn into Bridges
These similarities are extra than simply quaint observations; they’re core traits that encourage a nervous hope that our two international locations will come collectively. A major Israeli goal is regime change, the fallout of which might be damaging and violent. If regime change had been within the offing, Washington would do effectively to know and anticipate how the US-Iranian similarities may shortly turn into affinities influencing any path ahead. On this atmosphere, Iranian outreach, diaspora strain, and US ally help would emerge as important vectors for US motion.
- Iranian Outreach – A brand new revolution in Tehran would virtually definitely spur higher outreach towards Washington. This may occasionally appear counterintuitive, on condition that Iranians have held unfavorable views of the US for years, however our similarities may function a counterforce. Certainly, even amid Iranian disdain for Individuals, they specific a robust want to normalize relations and for democracy. Moreover, Washington’s obvious effort to dissuade Israel from its navy offensive could place america as a extra approachable adversary. Washington would virtually definitely be located for some fast wins with the youth who can be on the middle of any new motion. To not be flippant, however gentle energy gestures, equivalent to facilitating a live performance by the domestically well-liked Lionel Richie, are the kind of normalization gestures that Washington ought to contemplate.
- Diaspora Stress – The Iranian diaspora in america can be a supply of knowledge and strain in Washington amid a brand new Iranian revolution. I’ve retold my dinner story to members of the diaspora, and they’re essentially the most fervent that it’s appropriate; on one event, it introduced an Iranian-born American to tears as she insisted on its accuracy. The US is residence to the biggest Iranian inhabitants on the earth after Iran itself; the census places the numbers between 400,000 and 570,000, relying on ethnic combine. Additional, that diaspora is politically engaged and knowledgeable. Washington would do effectively to measure the diaspora recommendation; on the one hand, they’ve one of the best pursuits of Iran in thoughts and are prone to return and maintain posts of affect; alternatively—and as we discovered in the course of the US invasion of Iraq—diaspora sources can lead with the hearts, understandably, and so counting on a number of sources of knowledge in decisionmaking can be all of the extra important.
- Ally Help – Like my Iraqi acquaintance, American allies are prone to want and push for a US-Iran rapprochement within the face of a brand new Iranian revolution. Some allies are well-connected and extra revered in Tehran and will function a springboard for Washington. Additional, Iranian needs to normalize relations are much less relevant to Israel, leaving Washington to play a cleanup position if it needs a renewed Iran to emerge as comparatively pleasant. The UK, which maintains an embassy in Tehran and seems wanting to exhibit its loyalty to the US, would probably be fast to supply help. France additionally has a diplomatic presence and possibly would step as much as encourage stability. The ever-ambitious Turkey, residence to a big diaspora inhabitants and a robust Muslim affinity—Iran’s theocratic standing will make faith one thing to navigate—can be an important ally within the trigger. Canada, which helped the US safely depart Tehran after its final revolution, has just lately skilled pressure with Iran, however it hosts the second-largest diaspora inhabitants after the US and can be a logical possibility for trilateral or multilateral engagement.
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