That is the second in a collection wanting on the challenges and alternatives for the 7 important Nice Britain events. This time we are going to have a look at Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalists.
Plaid have obtained a really constant share of the vote (other than the very first Senedd election). In UK Basic Elections, they do barely higher in years when the Tories are doing badly.
Geography
I’d advocate Tim Marshall’s Energy of Geography books. These present how geography has impacted international locations’ borders but in addition their historic improvement (for instance, Russia’s rationale for the Ukraine Struggle may be a minimum of partly defined by the truth that Western Russia is an enormous plain with no pure defences till you attain the Urals.)
A topographic map of Wales exhibits Plaid’s downside. Wales, for essentially the most half, is roofed by mountains. There’s a northern coastal plain and a southern coastal plain. The commercial valleys all hyperlink to the southern plain. The three largest cities in Wales had been all initially ports on the southern coastal plain.
Topographic map of Wales – Supply: Topographic-map.com
The problem for Plaid is that the mountainous geography makes it more durable to unify Wales. The northern plain naturally hyperlinks to Chester after which Liverpool, whereas the southern plain hyperlinks to Bristol after which in direction of London. If you wish to journey from Cardiff to Wrexham (whether or not by street or rail) then your finest route is through Hereford and Shrewsbury in England.
Cardiff to Wrexham by rail – Supply: Google Maps
These transport hyperlinks are an enormous barrier to independence. A tough border between England and Wales would utterly cripple the Welsh financial system.
Against this, the geography is extra beneficial for the SNP as there’s a low inhabitants space between the Central Belt and the main English northern cities (The Borders, Cumbria, Northumberland)
Language
Plaid Cymru means Occasion of Wales, however I’d argue their identify must be Plaid Siaradwyr Cymraeg – Occasion of Welsh Audio system. Plaid win extensive assist amongst Welsh audio system however do a lot worse amongst English audio system. For instance, in 2024, Plaid obtained 54% of the vote in Dwyfor Meirionnydd of their Welsh-speaking heartland, however solely 2.5% in Monmouthshire on the English border.
At this time, only one in 5 folks in Wales converse Welsh and these are clustered within the elements of the nation furthest away from England.
It’s price a little bit historic detour right here.
As soon as upon a time, Wales was completely Welsh talking, however this declined within the 1800s and 1900s for a number of causes.
Considered one of these is the Welsh Knot or Not. This was a token given to any pupil who was caught talking Welsh and handed from youngster to youngster. The kid who had it on the finish of the day can be overwhelmed or in any other case punished.
Nevertheless, this wasn’t the one cause. In my household, my great-grandparents had been each Welsh audio system however they made a aware option to carry up my grandmother and her sister as English audio system as they noticed English as giving them higher alternatives.
A remaining lesser identified cause is that many individuals had been by no means Welsh audio system to begin with. The expansion of the Valleys in the course of the Industrial Revolution meant that massive quantities of additional labour was required. The inhabitants of Blaenau Gwent went from round 500 folks in 1779 to 120,000 in 1921. Whereas employees got here from rural Wales, many additionally moved from areas of England, akin to North East Somerset and the Midlands.
Whereas the decline in Welsh talking has levelled out, it’s nonetheless unlikely to see a revival to develop into the dominant language once more. It’s now taught in English language colleges, however most English audio system won’t ever want to make use of it. It isn’t simply competing towards a much bigger neighbouring language however towards the World’s Lingua Franca.
Returning to Plaid, it’s fascinating that they tried Leanne Wooden, an English speaker, as chief. So far as I can see Wooden, did no higher or worse than different Plaid leaders, however she was ousted after 6 years in 2018. All the next leaders have been Welsh audio system.
The financial system and training
Once we discuss in regards to the Barnett system, it tends to be within the context of Scotland, nevertheless it additionally applies to Wales and Northern Eire. Wales will get round an additional £1,000 per yr per particular person in public spending and has the second lowest GDP per capita after North East England (In 2023, it was about £27,000 per capita vs. a UK common of £37,000 per capita).
For Wales to thrive once more, the important thing query is the way to reinvigorate the Valleys and former industrial areas. The coal mines went within the 80s and 90s and whereas there are just a few factories, there was nothing on the identical scale. Once more geographic isolation is an element – the previous coalfields of Yorkshire and Nottinghamshire are nearer to the important thing financial hubs and a few former pit villages have develop into commuter hubs. In Wales, Cardiff has the best stage of prosperity, however it’s not massive sufficient to drag up the remainder of the nation.
One of many fascinating issues about Plaid is that their voters usually reside in rural communities and but at Basic Election debates they usually pitch themselves to the left of Labour. It too usually feels that the financial debate in Wales focuses on redistribution and taxing the wealthy (e.g. the tourism tax), after they should be excited about the way to develop the financial system of Wales and shut the hole with England. It actually doesn’t assist that Wales has the worst PISA instructional scores of the 4 house nations by a good distance.
The voting system
For the 2026 election, Wales could have a brand new voting system, which is a uncommon instance of political turkeys voting for Christmas.
The previous system was a mixture of 40 constituency seats and 20 regional high up seats. This benefited Labour in 2 methods:
- There weren’t sufficient high up seats to make the outcome proportional to the area votes forged.
- The highest up seats had been break up throughout 5 areas of 4 seats every. This meant that though at a nationwide stage Labour weren’t entitled to any high up seats, they may nonetheless win high up seats of their weakest areas, e.g. Mid and West Wales.
Total, this meant that in 2021, Labour received 50% of the seats on 36% of the listing vote.
The brand new voting system can be PR. The 32 Westminster constituencies can be paired into 16 Senedd constituencies, which can every elect 6 Senedd members.
This implies some form of coalition can be required, however Labour are not assured to be the biggest social gathering. The truth is, in latest polls, Plaid and Reform however have a shot at being the biggest social gathering.
The query is whether or not this interprets to actual change. The truth that Reform and Conservatives are unlikely to ever work with Plaid or the Greens implies that some form of coalition involving Labour remains to be most definitely.
Plaid might have the prospect to steer the Welsh Authorities for the primary time, however Welsh independence nonetheless appears to be like a good distance away.
Subsequent time – Reform UK
Gareth of the Vale
