Tesla’s ‘Supervised Full Self-Driving’ (FSD) in buyer autos hasn’t improved all yr, based mostly on the very best obtainable information beforehand praised by CEO Elon Musk.
Now Musk factors to having to attend till later this yr, however anticipate what?
Tesla’s final main FSD replace, v13, was launched in December 2024.
Musk had beforehand claimed that v13 would allow “a 5 to 6x enhance in miles between disengagements in comparison with v12.5.”
The automaker by no means launched any disengagement information to show any enchancment. Due to this fact, now we have needed to depend on crowdsourced information. There’s a specific dataset that Musk himself beforehand shared positively, suggesting that the restricted dataset is considerably reflective of what Tesla is seeing in its personal information.
Primarily based on this dataset, v13 on Tesla’s HW4 autos was an actual enchancment, however it solely introduced a 2x enchancment in miles between vital disengagement – nowhere close to the declare “5 to 6x” enhance.
As we beforehand reported, HW3 autos are nonetheless caught on v12, and Musk has admitted that the {hardware} won’t ever help the promised unsupervised self-driving functionality, with no plans to rectify the state of affairs in sight.
Now, six months after Tesla launched v13, this system has stagnated because the automaker shifted all its efforts to a “robotaxi” pilot program in Austin, Texas.
Tesla has launched a brand new model, v13.2.9 (left), however it has been performing worse than the earlier replace (v13.2.8 – proper) after over 5,000 miles of information:
The most recent information on Tesla FSD v13.2.9 factors to 371 miles between vital disengagements.
As we beforehand reported, the robotaxi pilot program in Austin is a transferring of the goalpost for Tesla, which has been promising that each one its buyer autos constructed since 2016 would change into able to unsupervised self-driving with future software program updates.
It operates solely in a geo-fenced space of Austin, the place Tesla is particularly coaching its neural nets to be optimized for the world. Moreover, it’s utilizing “loads of teleoperation” to help the fleet, one thing that may’t scale to buyer autos.
The hope is that Tesla’s optimization and deal with this pilot venture in Austin will in the end lead to Tesla enhancing FSD in buyer autos.
Musk has now commented on this effort:
It’s a brand new model of software program, however will merge to the primary department quickly. We now have a extra superior mannequin in alpha stage that has ~4X the params, however nonetheless requires lots of sharpening. That’s most likely prepared for deploy in a couple of months.
Shortly after claiming a 4x enhance in parameters, Musk mentioned that this is able to be coming “later this yr”:
~4.5X enhance in params must be prepared for extensive launch later this yr. Tremendous frugal use of reminiscence bandwidth, caching precisely what is required & squeezing microseconds out of all the things are wanted to keep up the body price. And the entire system must be retrained.
It’s price noting that Musk’s timelines for FSD releases have traditionally been extraordinarily late.
The higher query is what this long-awaited replace will convey to Tesla homeowners?
Electrek’s Take
The promised and paid-for unsupervised self-driving? No. The “unsupervised” self-driving that Tesla is launching as a part of the pilot program in Austin just isn’t transferable to the client fleet. It’s geofenced in a small space round Austin, Texas, and it depends on teleoperation, which doesn’t scale to hundreds of thousands of autos like Tesla promised.
It’s additionally essential to notice that it’s not the primary time that Musk has promised a big enhance in parameters. The CEO mentioned that FSD v12.5 on HW4 was a “5x enhance in parameters” and that was fairly disappointing.
FSD v12.5 on HW4 (left) solely introduced a 22% enhance in miles between vital disengagement in comparison with v12.3 (proper):
In reality, the miles between vital disengagements plummeted with different v12.5 level updates, and it in the end ended at 184 miles between vital disengagements, considerably beneath v12.3:
Due to this fact, it’s exhausting to get too excited a couple of new “~4.5x enhance in parameters” when that’s what occurred the final time Musk referred to as for it.
Moreover, at the moment, Musk said that HW4 might help an “8x enhance in parameters,” and it was round this time that he started to precise much less confidence in his feedback about HW3.
It took one other 6 months earlier than he lastly admitted that HW3 wouldn’t help unsupervised self-driving, and Tesla principally stopped making any vital updates on the {hardware} since.
Tesla can also be rapidly approaching the boundaries of HW4 with latest updates.
I feel it’s turning into clear that the robotaxi launch in Austin is simply one other distraction from the truth that Tesla can’t ship on its promise of creating hundreds of thousands of autos delivered since 2016 able to “unsupervised self-driving.”
I’m certain that the hassle goes to lead to enhancements in FSD in buyer autos later this yr, however it received’t be to the extent wanted to realize unsupervised self-driving with out teleoperation, which once more just isn’t scalable.
If Tesla can get nearer to 1,000 miles between vital disengagements, it might be good, however 99% of the worth of FSD lies in stage 4-5 unsupervised self-driving, and we received’t be even near that. And that’s what folks paid for.
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