“Situational Evaluation” is a collection of articles that seeks to look at the circumstances that almost all usually affect an NBA prospect’s success. Every participant shall be scored on a scale from 1-10 in 4 totally different classes: NBA-specific ability(s), deadly flaw(s), collegiate/abroad/pre-NBA surroundings, and ideally suited NBA ecosystem.
Airious “Ace” Bailey is an 18-year-old (19 in August) wing from Chattanooga, Tennessee, who averaged 17.6 factors, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.3 assists for the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. He’s anticipated to be the chosen within the higher half of the lottery within the 2025 NBA Draft. NBADraft.internet at the moment has him projected at No. 4.
NBA-Particular Expertise
If a video editor have been to cherry choose all the most effective Ace Bailey highlights for a 5-minute hype video, the participant in that video would have a compelling case to go No. 1 general – sure, even forward of Cooper Flagg.
Bailey at his greatest is that this draft’s most intriguing offensive expertise. Hardly anybody on this draft class and even within the NBA has Bailey’s reported mixture of peak (6-10 in footwear), size (8-8 standing attain), capturing skill, and open-court athleticism. Bailey runs like a gazelle, glides like a gull, and shoots like an murderer.
Bailey is a terror in transition. He can fill the lane for athletic lobs or unfold to the wings for spot-up 3s. With a excessive launch level and intensely fast/fluid mechanics, Bailey is usually open even when he’s being defended. He exhibits wonderful footwork on his jumper, discovering his steadiness even after operating full velocity.
Bailey is the kind of participant who can go on double-digit runs all on his personal. When he sees a pair pictures go down, his eyes get massive and he enters that uncommon “HE’S ON FIRE!” NBA Jam territory. Within the parlance of NBA mixtape retailers, Ace Bailey is an issue.
Defensively, Bailey is lengthy and athletic sufficient to change all around the ground and supply ample rim safety (1.3 blocks per sport). He’s a greater rebounder than he’s given credit score for, and he can flip these boards into fast offense the opposite method.
The most effective model of Bailey has critical star potential and an All-Star ceiling. His greatest followers see him because the second coming of Paul George.
On a scale from 1-10, Bailey’s offensive upside charges at a 9.
Deadly Flaws
The issue with these 5-minute mixtapes? They miss all of the dangerous stuff.
If Bailey’s shot isn’t falling, he can merely vanish from the sport. To see a participant this gifted mentally take a look at as regularly as Bailey does raises various purple flags.
Bailey can drift for big swaths of a basketball sport with out making a single play on both finish. You’ll neglect he’s on the market – unforgivable for somebody this massive, this athletic, and this gifted.
Bailey and Dylan Harper arrived at Rutgers with the intent of turning a mediocre program into an influence, however it didn’t fairly occur that method. However even throughout losses, Harper continued to make performs and get to the rim. Bailey, on account of his surprisingly mediocre ball dealing with, wants another person to create offense for him at this stage. Within the parlance of NBA mixtape retailers, Ace Bailey doesn’t have a lot of a bag – not but, anyway.
His drifting isn’t unique to offense. He can get caught ball-watching on protection, and he can get caught out of his defensive stance if a group swings the ball round with tempo.
There are additionally rumors that Bailey isn’t as tall as he claims to be. At 6-10, Bailey’s upside is fascinating. At 6-7/6-8, much less so. Truthful or unfair, NBA prospect evaluation is a chilly enterprise.
Up to now, Bailey appears to have coasted on his bodily items and his stunning leap shot on the detriment to the remainder of his all-around sport. He doesn’t have the identical form of really feel as different elite prospects. He doesn’t go the ball or make performs for others (unfavourable help/turnover ratio). He can wrestle to maintain his cool if issues aren’t going his method.
His upside is simple. However there are many obstacles Bailey might want to overcome to attain it.
On a scale from 1 (not a priority) to 10 (critical hindrance), Bailey’s restricted all-around sport charges at an 8.5.
Pre-NBA Setting
It’s onerous to overstate how dominant Ace Bailey was in highschool. Solely Cooper Flagg outranked him in each main recruiting service. Regardless of not taking part in lots of high-profile AAU tournaments, Bailey’s fame gained steam, incomes him coveted spots on all of the name-brand prep groups.
A fast scan of his highschool field scores and his YouTube highlights had Rutgers followers believing they landed the evolutionary Lamar Odom when Bailey determined to affix Harper in New Jersey. Nevertheless, the Scarlet Knights misplaced. Lots.
It nonetheless defies logic simply how dangerous this group was. Positive, the supporting forged wasn’t fairly there, and the coach was overmatched, however that is school basketball. Gamers nearly as good as Harper and Bailey shouldn’t lose this many video games.
As soon as the losses began piling up, Bailey appeared to take a look at and set his sights set on the NBA draft. However he has struggled to regain his pre-Rutgers momentum, falling on many mock drafts from No. 3 – behind solely Flagg and Harper – to No. 4 on NBADraft.internet and even as little as No. 6-7 on different mock drafts.
Maybe this may gentle a much-needed hearth below Bailey. It could be a disgrace to see this a lot expertise go unrealized.
On a scale from 1-10, Bailey’s pre-NBA profession charges at a 5.5 – a 9 in highschool, a 2 in school. Let’s break up the distinction.
Ideally suited NBA Ecosystem
Ace Bailey must tighten up his ball dealing with, firstly. Second, he wants a coach/group that may maintain him accountable and never let him coast.
There may be critical Andrew Wiggins potential right here. Wiggins got here into the NBA with each device within the toolbox however solely sometimes put all of them to make use of. Michael Porter Jr. is one other helpful comparability – a participant who may have simply drifted into mediocrity if not given the chance to play alongside Nikola Jokic and contribute to a championship effort.
Bailey jogs my memory a little bit of these tantalizing prospects within the 2000s who by no means fairly put all of it collectively – Darius Miles, Anthony Randolph, Andrea Bargnani – however the proper infrastructure may help Bailey fulfill his potential.
Philadelphia is the group most frequently mocked to take Bailey. With Paul George on the roster, Bailey may sample his sport after his best-case state of affairs (albeit at a diminished bodily situation) and provides the Tyrese Maxey/Jared McCain backcourt a really perfect lanky ground spacer and transition dynamo.
If the Sixers go, Charlotte would have a tough time passing on his expertise at No. 4. He’s considerably duplicative of Brandon Miller, however the Hornets want as a lot expertise as they’ll get, and a Miller/Bailey ahead mixture can be troublesome to deal with.
Issues get Dicey if Bailey slides to that Utah/Washington/New Orleans/Brooklyn zone. Philadelphia (Nick Nurse) and Charlotte (Charles Lee) have coaches who would maintain Bailey to a excessive commonplace, even when their organizations are in a little bit of a cool spot proper now.
On a scale from 1-10, Bailey’s situational dependence is a 9. He has all of the expertise on the planet to be a extremely productive NBA participant for 15 years, however he would possibly have to catch just a few breaks throughout his rookie contract to get set heading in the right direction.
