Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up a very powerful polling traits or information factors you must learn about. You’ll additionally discover data-based updates on previous Every day Kos reporting, plus a vibe verify on a development that’s driving politics.
A bar graph can change minds
Individuals extensively again rising the cash spent on protection—except they’re informed how a lot cash already goes to it.
This discovering comes from YouGov, which performed a survey experiment on federal funding. Of the 1,149 Individuals it surveyed, half have been proven a breakdown of the 2025 federal finances, whereas the opposite half weren’t. Then YouGov requested whether or not numerous departments ought to obtain extra, much less, or the identical quantity of funding.
Amongst those that didn’t see the finances, 36% supported elevated spending on protection. Nevertheless, amongst those that did see the breakdown, solely 18% felt the identical manner.
Clearly, seeing how a lot of the finances already goes to the Pentagon modified minds.
The second-largest distinction got here on training spending. Amongst those that noticed that division’s sliver of the finances, assist for elevated spending was 57%, whereas amongst those that didn’t see the finances, it was simply 47%.
Nonetheless, Protection stood out—and it’s simple to see why.
Whereas most individuals need a sturdy nationwide protection, many don’t notice it already dominates discretionary spending. The Pentagon’s annual finances exceeds $800 billion, whereas the Schooling Division’s finances is a few tenth of that. In the meantime, the White Home desires to slash nondefense spending by 23% going into the subsequent fiscal yr.
So when folks say they need extra for protection, it’s actually because they don’t acknowledge how a lot we already allocate to it. However once they see the numbers, assist is decrease.
You see an identical sample with overseas assist. Polls persistently present that Individuals imagine the U.S. spends roughly 30% of its finances on overseas assist. In actuality, it’s about 1%. And polls present that seeing the true determine modifications minds. For instance, when KFF knowledgeable respondents of the true quantity spent on overseas assist, the share who mentioned the U.S. was spending “an excessive amount of” on assist dropped by over 20 proportion factors.
That is how public opinion will get formed: not simply by values, but in addition by assumptions. Most Individuals don’t despise overseas assist or want countless navy spending. As an alternative, they’re reacting to a finances they think about, not the one now we have.
Seems, seeing a bar graph could make a giant distinction.
Are Individuals turning on the GOP?
The tide could also be turning: Latest polling suggests Individuals might now have a extra favorable view of congressional Democrats than Republicans.
From the start of December by means of the tip of March, the web favorability of every social gathering’s Congress members was by no means greater than 2 factors aside, in keeping with information from Morning Seek the advice of. Typically, each social gathering’s lawmakers have been seen in a equally adverse mild.
Nevertheless, in early April, issues started to open up. Shortly after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs” took impact, Democrats ran up their widest net-favorability lead (7 factors) over Republicans since November and have been considered for the primary time since final yr’s election as internet favorable, that means a better share of voters noticed them positively than did negatively.
Moreover, from April to now, Democrats’ internet favorability has been over 3 factors greater on common, in contrast with it being lower than 1 level greater on common between December and the tip of March.
In different phrases, the impasse could—emphasis on could—be breaking.
The newest survey, fielded between Might 30 and June 2, exhibits that 46% of registered voters now have a positive opinion of congressional Democrats, in comparison with 45% who view them unfavorably. In the meantime, Republicans are dealing with challenges: 44% of voters see them positively, whereas 48% see them negatively.
These could look like modest variations, however the hole has grown extra constant. Democrats additionally lead on the generic congressional poll, which asks whether or not folks would again the Democrat or the Republican for his or her native Home district if the election have been held as we speak. Add these information factors up and so they appear to point that voters are turning on the GOP’s trifecta in Washington.
One purpose for the shift could be Trump’s tariff agenda, which Individuals hate and which Republican lawmakers typically refuse to criticize. One other could possibly be that the Republican Occasion is embroiled in a public dispute over whether or not to assist Trump’s so-called “One Large Stunning Invoice”—a large, unpopular package deal that might lower meals help, strip medical insurance from thousands and thousands, and threat wrecking the U.S. economic system.
As an alternative of tackling voter issues in regards to the invoice, Republicans are bullying former President Joe Biden for some purpose, whereas in addition they rally round Trump, who stays unpopular in Morning Seek the advice of’s polling. Forty-six p.c of voters view him favorably, whereas 51% view him unfavorably. Heck, even Elon Musk is overtly criticizing the invoice.
For now, Democrats appear to be benefiting from this distinction. So, sure, it’s a constructive begin, however now the query is whether or not Democrats can maintain this momentum and carry it into 2026.
Republicans have soured on inexperienced vitality
Whereas wind and solar energy stay broadly well-liked, assist for these vitality sources has slipped since Trump’s first time period, pushed by a pointy decline amongst Republicans and GOP-leaning voters, in keeping with new information from the Pew Analysis Middle.
Since 2020, Republican assist for increasing photo voltaic has dropped from 84% to 61%, and for wind energy from 75% to simply 48%.
Pew’s findings are particularly placing on vitality priorities. In 2020, 65% of Republicans mentioned the U.S. ought to give attention to increasing wind and solar energy relatively than oil, coal, and pure fuel. Now, although, 67% say the nation ought to prioritize fossil fuels over renewables.
The shift comes as Republicans in Congress take into account rushing up approvals for oil and fuel tasks and slashing incentives for inexperienced vitality. On the identical time, Environmental Safety Company Administrator Lee Zeldin has labored to weaken the company and promote local weather denialism from inside.
Youthful Republicans stay extra supportive of wind and photo voltaic than their older counterparts—a development seen throughout social gathering strains—however even their assist is slipping. Simply 51% of Republicans ages 18 to 29 now say renewable vitality needs to be the precedence, down 16 factors from final yr.
Democrats, against this, nonetheless overwhelmingly again renewable vitality. Based on the ballot, 91% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters favor extra solar energy, and 87% assist extra wind. These numbers have barely modified since Trump’s first time period. And per these views, 86% of Democrats say the U.S. ought to prioritize renewable growth over fossil fuels.
Whether or not Republicans’ shifting attitudes replicate real coverage choice, partisan signaling, or backlash to climate-focused laws, the consequence is a celebration pivoting away from the broad, cross-partisan consensus that existed just some years in the past.
Any updates?
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Whom do Democrats wish to lead their social gathering? The reply isn’t clear, and that could be excellent news for a celebration in flux. A brand new YouGov/The Economist ballot exhibits Democrats are break up: Former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Kamala Harris tied for first place, with every incomes 21% assist. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was the one different determine to crack double digits, at 10%. Sure, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was on the checklist, however she pulled simply 9%, a bit decrease than in different polls.
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The Trump administration’s proposed finances would slash all funding for specialised companies that assist LGBTQ+ youth by means of the 988 Suicide and Disaster Lifeline—however voters aren’t having it. A brand new Knowledge for Progress ballot finds that 69% of possible voters wish to maintain these companies intact, in contrast with simply 23% who assist the cuts. The opposition is bipartisan—maybe a mirrored image of shifting views throughout the GOP on points like same-sex marriage—with 56% of Republicans and 80% of Democrats backing continued funding.
Vibe verify
Based on Civiqs, the proportion of registered voters who imagine the economic system is getting worse is basically the identical because it was within the days after Trump’s introduced his “Liberation Day” tariffs rollout (53% on April 2 and 52% on Friday)—however extra folks say the economic system is enhancing: up from 31% on April 2 to 35% on Friday.
In fact, it’s Republicans who’re driving that optimism—71% now say the economic system is enhancing, in contrast with solely 3% of Democrats who say the identical. Nevertheless, that could possibly be extra about notion than actuality, particularly since Trump’s tariffs are solely simply beginning to shake up the job market.
Nonetheless, you possibly can’t blame folks for hoping. A Gallup ballot performed in early April discovered that 38% of Individuals anticipated financial development over the subsequent six months, whereas 48% thought it will decline. Optimism could also be slipping, however it hasn’t disappeared.
It’d all be wishful considering—particularly if Trump’s “One Large Stunning Invoice” turns into legislation—however for now, persons are nonetheless holding on to hope.
