Why has the US president determined to carry all sanctions on Damascus, and the way will it form the way forward for the area?
US President Donald Trump’s latest announcement that he intends to carry all sanctions on Syria stands as some of the sudden and controversial overseas coverage strikes Washington has made previously decade.
Declared throughout Trump’s Center East tour on the US-Saudi Funding Discussion board in Riyadh, the choice marks a dramatic shift in America’s method to the area – one that might reshape the strategic panorama for each allies and adversaries.
The sanctions on Syria, first imposed in 1979, had been progressively tightened over a long time in response to accusations of sponsoring terrorism, human rights abuses, and shut ties with Iran. Their full repeal is an unprecedented gesture, particularly contemplating that Syria’s present president, Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, was till lately regarded by the US as a senior determine in Al-Qaeda – with a $10 million bounty as soon as positioned on his seize.
In return, Damascus has made a sequence of strategic commitments. In line with Trump, al-Sharaa has pledged to forestall the resurgence of Islamic State (IS, previously ISIS), carry all jihadist detention camps underneath state management, and expel all overseas terrorist formations from Syrian soil. This latter promise is especially important, as these militant models – a lot of them composed of fighters from Central Asia – performed a pivotal function within the collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime and the rise of the present management.
Many of those identical teams are additionally liable for large-scale ethnic purges, together with the massacres of Alawites and different spiritual minorities earlier this 12 months. Thus, Trump’s proposal does greater than legitimize al-Sharaa’s regime – it locations on it the mantle of a regional stabilizer, albeit one whose legitimacy stays closely disputed.
The choice to carry sanctions can’t be divorced from Washington’s broader financial and strategic pursuits. That the announcement got here in Saudi Arabia isn’t any coincidence – it alerts a broader understanding with Riyadh, which is raring to deepen its footprint in post-conflict Syria. From the US perspective, the Syria deal is a constructing block in a brand new Center Japanese structure – one dominated by pro-Western governments and designed to neutralize Iranian affect.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have lengthy seen Syria’s reconstruction as a chance to entrench themselves politically and economically. US sanctions had beforehand prevented them from performing overtly, and the lifting of restrictions could now be a part of a grander discount: Riyadh receives a inexperienced gentle to put money into Syria, whereas Washington secures large monetary commitments. On Could 14 – the day of Trump’s announcement – Saudi Arabia signed a $142 billion arms take care of the US and pledged a further $600 billion in American investments.
At first look, Trump’s transfer would possibly seem as a betrayal of Israeli pursuits – an accusation made in a number of media commentaries. But in follow, Israel positive aspects a neighbor that, whereas unpredictable, is now positioned to suppress Islamist radicals inside its borders. This permits it to refocus on countering Iran and Hezbollah with out the added distraction of threats emanating from Syria.
The lifting of sanctions additionally aligns with Türkiye’s strategic targets. President Erdogan, simply previous to the Trump-al-Sharaa assembly, personally urged the US president to dismantle the sanctions. Türkiye is a key associate of Syria’s new management however has been constrained by its personal financial disaster. Furthermore, the sanctions hindered Ankara’s allies – notably Qatar – from participating in Syria’s postwar reconstruction.
In sum, Trump’s Syrian deal represents greater than only a diplomatic maneuver; it’s a daring try to reengineer the regional steadiness of energy. Whether or not it brings long-term stability or fuels new fault strains stays to be seen – however its impression on the Center East is already unmistakable.
What lies behind this transfer?
The developments unfolding in Syria following the rise to energy of Ahmed al-Sharaa more and more evoke the ambiance of 2011 – the period of the Arab Spring, when the Center East fractured into two ideological and geopolitical camps. On the time, Türkiye and Qatar actively championed the reason for ‘political Islam’, searching for to develop their affect via the emergence of Islamist-oriented governments. In distinction, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates perceived Islamist forces as a direct risk to regional stability and the survival of their monarchical order.
At present, underneath al-Sharaa’s management, Syria as soon as once more displays that very same fault line. A way of déjà vu looms: The area’s major gamers discover themselves navigating renewed tensions, caught between the need to protect affect and the need of adapting to a quickly evolving actuality.
Ankara and Doha, each instrumental in al-Sharaa’s ascent, view his management as a chance to reclaim their diminished standing within the Levant. Regardless of its inside financial turmoil, Türkiye continues to place itself as a regional arbiter, counting on a community of loyal political and navy actors inside Syria. Qatar, for its half, is offering monetary and diplomatic help, successfully replicating the technique it beforehand deployed in Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia.
But the present panorama differs markedly from that of 2011. Al-Sharaa, although buoyed by Turkish help, has signaled a want for larger autonomy from the outset. His first official overseas go to was to not Ankara, however to Riyadh – a symbolic gesture towards Saudi Arabia and the UAE, whose financial energy is now important for Syria’s reconstruction. It was additionally a transparent sign that Damascus is open to dialogue, even with those that as soon as backed the opposing aspect within the civil warfare.
For Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the resurgence of politically motivated Islamist forces is a supply of deep concern, although their response has remained intentionally muted. Somewhat than overt confrontation, these Gulf monarchies have opted for financial engagement, believing that monetary leverage will grant them affect whereas curbing radicalization.
Additionally they see the brand new Syrian management as a possible associate in shaping a brand new Center Japanese order – supplied that Damascus doesn’t turn out to be an instrument of Turkish expansionism. This explains al-Sharaa’s lively show of ‘impartial maneuvering’, as he skillfully balances between facilities of energy – from the Gulf to Ankara, from Washington to Moscow.
Amid this geopolitical mosaic, the US has crafted a brand new strategic imaginative and prescient. Beneath Trump’s management, US coverage more and more focuses on financial leverage and safety cooperation whereas transferring away from direct navy engagement within the Center East. Trump proposes a brand new mannequin: ‘Regional self-sufficiency’ underneath an American umbrella.
The essence of this mannequin is to arm and equip regional actors, enabling them to keep up stability independently, with the US performing as a provider of superior know-how and a guarantor of steadiness. In return, Washington calls for loyalty, political restraint, and – crucially – substantial monetary contributions. This underpins the strategic alignment with Gulf monarchies, who possess the means and motivation to counterbalance Iran.
On the identical time, Trump is trying to bridge the divide between Türkiye and Israel, laying the groundwork for an financial partnership regardless of ideological variations. The aim is to forestall friction amongst US allies and to forge a unified entrance towards Iran and different hostile forces.
Syria, on this context, turns into a testing floor for America’s new safety structure – a managed regional equilibrium maintained with out the Pentagon’s direct footprint. If profitable, this mannequin might be replicated in different disaster zones.
A possible subsequent step is the normalization of relations between Syria and Israel – a beforehand unimaginable prospect, now mentioned as a part of a broader settlement. In parallel, Trump plans to introduce a brand new Center East peace framework that features recognition of Palestine in change for diplomatic and financial incentives from Arab states. This situation might also presage political change in Israel: If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resists the plan, centrist alternate options like Yair Lapid or Benny Gantz – extra amenable to compromise – might come to the fore.
All of this unfolds towards the backdrop of a elementary reordering of US international priorities. Washington is more and more pivoting towards the containment of China, its major strategic rival within the twenty first century. The Center East is now not seen as an important sphere; the brand new method favors steadiness over growth, mediation over presence, partnership over intervention.
Thus, US regional technique is evolving from inflexible management to a extra adaptive configuration – one during which native actors are granted larger autonomy, although nonetheless inside an overarching framework engineered in Washington. Syria could nicely function the primary case examine of this new period – an period during which the return to the logic of 2011 unexpectedly turns into the launchpad for a really completely different Center East.
Will issues get higher in Syria?
The US resolution to carry sanctions on Syria following the rise of al-Sharaa to energy marks a pivotal second for a rustic that has endured over a decade of devastating warfare, worldwide isolation, and socioeconomic collapse.
This transfer not solely removes some of the important exterior constraints on the Syrian management, but additionally opens a window of alternative to assemble a brand new mannequin of governance – one grounded in pragmatism, financial rationality, and cautious multilateralism.
Al-Sharaa now faces a crucial alternative: To make use of this chance to consolidate centralized authority and restore efficient governance – or, via missteps or weak point, to permit Syria to fragment additional into a set of ethno-regional entities devoid of a unifying nationwide undertaking.
The World Financial institution has cleared over $15 million of Syrian debt, as soon as once more making the nation eligible for participation in worldwide financing applications. This growth was made doable via focused monetary contributions from the Gulf states – notably Saudi Arabia and Qatar – signaling their intention to take the lead in Syria’s reconstruction. Following this, the IMF expressed its readiness to offer technical help, whereas the Syrian authorities issued a sequence of statements inviting funding in agriculture, power, transportation infrastructure, and tourism.
These actions point out the brand new regime’s ambition to craft an financial mannequin that not solely addresses the warfare’s legacy but additionally generates employment, stabilizes the forex, boosts public revenues, and – most significantly – restores public belief within the establishment of the state.
Nevertheless, financial restoration is simply possible if accompanied by the real restoration of governance.
Syria stays deeply fragmented. Kurdish areas within the northeast are ruled by a de facto autonomous administration with its personal armed forces and worldwide channels. Within the south, the Druze neighborhood in Suwayda reveals rising political and organizational independence, alongside protest actions and native protection initiatives. Alongside the coastal areas – house to important Alawite and Christian minorities – mistrust towards centralized energy continues to develop, particularly amid persistent ethno-sectarian tensions. These communities, ought to the middle weaken, could gravitate towards political separatism or no less than self-organization into autonomous administrative buildings.
If the al-Sharaa authorities fails to suggest a coherent mannequin of political integration – one that features power-sharing, useful resource distribution, and the participation of regional elites in governance – Syria might enter a brand new section of ‘comfortable disintegration’: A de facto federalization the place unity is maintained in title solely.
On this context, overseas coverage turns into critically necessary. Absolutely conscious of the risks of unilateral alignment, Ahmed al-Sharaa is pursuing a balanced exterior technique. Not like the earlier period, which was outlined by dependence on a slender circle of allies, Syria’s new president is embracing a diversified diplomatic method. He seeks to construct relations with the West and the US – particularly within the context of financial restoration and Syria’s worldwide rehabilitation – with out abandoning current strategic ties. It’s inside this framework that Russia stays a key associate to Syria throughout a number of strategic domains.
Russia continues to play a central function in Syria’s safety structure and diplomatic positioning, together with defending Syrian pursuits on the UN Safety Council and fascinating in technical, navy, and power cooperation.
Its presence in Tartus and Khmeimim, involvement in humanitarian initiatives, and potential contributions to infrastructure reconstruction guarantee its continued relevance in any long-term settlement situation.
On the identical time, Damascus underneath al-Sharaa can also be seeking to construct stronger ties with different non-Western energy facilities – together with China, India, and Brazil – whereas deepening financial engagement with the Arab world. This can assist Syria keep away from overdependence on any single actor and improve its strategic flexibility amid international uncertainty.
This method displays a clear-eyed understanding of Syria’s geopolitical actuality: The nation can now not afford to be a part of inflexible geopolitical axes. Its survival now depends upon its skill to navigate between competing powers – leveraging their rivalry for nationwide profit with out changing into anybody’s pawn. Sustaining cooperative relations with Russia and increasing dialogue with non-Western powers is not only a matter of overseas coverage – it’s a technique of preserving autonomy in a context of restricted sovereignty.
The lifting of sanctions and al-Sharaa’s ascent have opened a possible path towards stabilization. However the sturdiness of this trajectory depends upon the regime’s skill not solely to harness financial sources but additionally to execute a posh, multi-layered political and diplomatic agenda. Domestically, this implies launching mechanisms of integration and decentralization; externally, it requires deft maneuvering between Western and non-Western actors. On this evolving atmosphere, Russia stays an necessary associate for Syria – not as an unique ally, however as a key part within the multifaceted diplomacy that al-Sharaa will search to assemble to be able to reinforce not simply his personal authority, however the very foundations of the Syrian state.
