OPINION — Because the starting of the battle in Ukraine, I’ve discovered the acquainted rhetoric supporting Ukraine’s proper to self-defense towards Russian aggression harking back to the discourse that adopted America’s engagement in Afghanistan. From the outset, I apprehensive that Ukraine may expertise the identical trajectory: beneficiant assist early on, adopted by political fatigue and eventual “abandonment.” The sample of growth of dependency—the place the supported authorities is unable to maintain itself with out steady assist—will be deeply damaging and depart a nation susceptible.
Regrettably, as a substitute of using America’s affect to result in an early diplomatic decision to the Ukraine battle, President Joe Biden escalated navy assist, contributing to a protracted and more and more complicated battle. Ukraine has since turn out to be closely reliant on U.S. monetary assist, weapons, and intelligence. But this assist has typically appeared unstable, often threatened by inside U.S. politics. Notably, President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled a willingness to halt assist, a place that intensified following political tensions between his administration and President Volodymyr Zelensky. This rising reliance locations Kyiv in a susceptible place—strikingly much like the scenario Kabul confronted through the U.S.-Taliban negotiations beneath President Trump’s first time period. The U.S. held monumental leverage in each conflicts and thus bore a big duty for his or her outcomes. As somebody who was concerned within the Afghanistan peace course of and follows Ukraine peace efforts intently, I see a troubling resemblance between Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad’s dealings with the Taliban, and the best way American politics at the moment are shaping Ukraine’s destiny.
President Trump has expressed sturdy curiosity in resolving the battle in Ukraine and has forged himself as a “President of Peace.” Because the chief of essentially the most highly effective nation on the earth, he does possess the power to affect the battle’s trajectory. Nevertheless, the essential query stays: what sort of peace is being pursued? Will it mirror the result in Afghanistan, the place the U.S. successfully handed over energy to the very group liable for the 9/11 assaults, sidelining its allies and undermining their legitimacy? The U.S. should proceed with authority—not one other “Doha-style” deal which might ship harmful indicators globally, about America’s reliability as a peace maker, negotiator and eventually companion.
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Parallels in Negotiation Dynamics:
There are a number of notable parallels between the U.S. method to the Afghanistan peace course of and its present involvement within the Ukraine battle. Whereas the contexts differ, the patterns in negotiation techniques, therapy of allies, and use of leverage reveal putting similarities. These shared dynamics provide vital classes—classes that, if ignored, may result in repeated strategic failures. Three key parallels stand out:
1. Russia’s Insistence with the U.S.-Led Talks:
President Putin’s refusal to have interaction straight with President Zelensky in Istanbul, insisting as a substitute on first reaching an understanding with the U.S., mirrors the Taliban’s place through the Doha talks. The Taliban demanded negotiations completely with the US earlier than any engagement with the Afghan authorities. This tactic successfully marginalized the nationwide authorities, granting the Taliban higher legitimacy. In Ukraine’s case, ought to Russia safe a take care of Washington that renders the U.S. impartial or much less engaged, it could doubtless tilt the battlefield dynamics in Moscow’s favor. We witnessed an analogous shift in Afghanistan, the place repeated Afghan objections to their exclusion have been dismissed as obstructionist to the peace talks. I recall a number of conferences on the presidential palace in Kabul, the place Ambassador Khalilzad emphasised that “the U.S. doesn’t want anybody’s permission to barter with the Taliban or to withdraw its troops.” This narrative grew to become a rhetorical weapon to close down legitimate considerations about an orderly and inclusive peace course of.
2. Public Discrediting of Allies:
One other shared sample is the notion of “undermining allies.” In Afghanistan, Ambassador Khalilzad publicly criticized the Afghan authorities—particularly President Ashraf Ghani—for being an impediment to peace, moderately than acknowledging legit considerations. Ghani’s polarizing management type made him a simple goal, permitting Khalilzad’s narrative to realize traction amongst Afghan elites and the general public. In Ukraine, the tone of public discourse from U.S. officers, together with the President, has at occasions appeared dismissive or essential of the Ukrainian authorities. This public framing will be damaging. It echoes the strain confronted by the Afghan authorities to make main concessions—resembling the discharge of 5,000 Taliban prisoners—regardless of warnings from Afghan management. In each instances, U.S. rhetoric has eroded the morale of companion forces and given adversaries the higher hand in psychological warfare. In Afghanistan, this contributed on to the collapse of state constructions and navy cohesion. Language issues. Classes from Afghanistan ought to inform a extra cautious, respectful U.S. posture in Ukraine.
3. Conditioning Help and Misusing Leverage:
Threats to droop assist for Ukraine, don’t advance peace. They embolden adversaries and sow uncertainty. American leverage ought to be used to finish violence, not threat enabling it. Any withdrawal of assist ought to be tied to the profitable cessation of hostilities and institution of a viable simply peace. In any other case, efforts at diplomacy threat failing, and President Trump’s envisioned “peace legacy” could as a substitute be remembered as a geopolitical failure.
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Suggestions:
Primarily based on the teachings discovered from Afghanistan, the next suggestion is essential for avoiding related pitfalls in Ukraine:
Firstly, the U.S. should keep away from the essential mistake made through the Afghanistan peace course of—negotiating straight with adversaries whereas sidelining legit nationwide governments. Within the case of Afghanistan, excluding the Afghan authorities and the Afghan individuals from early levels of the U.S.-Taliban talks severely weakened its authority, emboldened the Taliban, and finally led to the collapse of the Afghan state. This method not solely demoralized U.S. allies but in addition delegitimized them within the eyes of their very own individuals and the worldwide group. In Ukraine, the US should undertake a special course. Any peace initiative should place the Ukrainian authorities and the individuals of Ukraine on the middle of negotiations—not as a passive recipient of choices made elsewhere, however as an lively, equal stakeholder. Peace achieved with out the consent and management of either side of the battle—the Ukrainian individuals and its adversaries—can be fragile, not sustainable, and short-lived.
Secondly, public messaging should mirror respect and unity. Criticizing allies in public, whereas signaling tolerance or engagement with aggressors behind closed doorways, undermines belief, morale, and credibility. Strategic ambiguity will be exploited by adversaries to sow discord, because it was by the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Ukraine deserves a peace course of that’s inclusive, dignified, and respectful of its sovereignty. The world can’t afford a repeat of the Kabul state of affairs—the place allies have been sidelined, and adversaries gaining upper-hand. The U.S. management, as all the time, should be principled, constant, and anchored in classes discovered from previous missteps. If managed properly, the peace course of in Ukraine may certainly mark a transformative legacy for American diplomacy, not solely because the companion to depend on however as a negotiator with making the appropriate deal.
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