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Seth Walder
The Philadelphia Eagles are the favorites to win Tremendous Bowl LX — however simply barely, with a cluster of groups near the reigning champs when it comes to skill and likelihood to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. That is in response to ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index (FPI) — our soccer scores and projection mannequin — which launched Wednesday for the 2025 season.
The Eagles have a 12% likelihood to win the Tremendous Bowl in response to the mannequin, the bottom likelihood the preseason favourite has needed to win all of it because the mannequin started outputting preseason projections in 2015.
Within the preseason, FPI’s total predictive scores are based totally on win totals from the betting market at the side of every group’s schedule — together with elements such because the distinction between a group’s beginning and backup quarterback and a particular groups score that includes particular kickers. We use these scores to simulate the season 1000’s of occasions, with the outcomes forming our projections.
Rankings evolve as we study extra about every group based mostly on its efficiency on offense, protection and particular groups — accounting for opponent — together with quarterback efficiency and adjustments. Sport predictions are additionally affected by home-field benefit and relaxation differentials. Let’s dive into our 2025 forecast and our greatest takeaways.
Leap to:
Prime groups | Tremendous Bowl | NFC North
NFC West | AFC East | AFC North
Who’s final? | No. 1 decide
Eagles high the NFL’s elite group
The NFL’s 2025 oligarchy consists of a transparent high tier: the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions and Payments. These groups are separated by at most a single level in FPI score, that means none of them can be favored by greater than a single level over one other on a impartial discipline. However there is a drastic, 1.8-point drop-off between the No. 5-ranked Payments and the No. 6-ranked Commanders.
First have a look at NFL FPI scores for the 2025 season! pic.twitter.com/k6s2fg40X7
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) Could 27, 2025
The frequent theme between the highest 5 groups? Offensive energy. That is proper, the “protection wins championships” cliché is not mirrored right here. Offense is extra steady from recreation to recreation and season to season, so groups with the very best previous quarterback and offensive manufacturing usually tend to repeat that success. That is vital as a result of the purpose of the FPI is to look forward, not again. It is no coincidence that the highest 5 groups even have the 5 greatest offenses in response to the FPI, albeit in a distinct order.
Nevertheless it’s not all offense — the defending champion Eagles are oh-so-slightly within the total lead as a result of additionally they have the very best protection. With linebacker Zack Baun again to anchor the center and ascending younger expertise corresponding to defensive deal with Jalen Carter and cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, Philly’s protection units it aside.
All 5 groups within the high tier have a minimum of an 8% likelihood to win the Tremendous Bowl, and there’s a 50% likelihood that the Tremendous Bowl winner is a type of 5 groups. No different group has larger than a 5% likelihood to win all of it.
Might we see an Eagles-Chiefs repeat within the Tremendous Bowl?
Two of the previous three Tremendous Bowls have been between Kansas Metropolis and Philadelphia. Will it’s three of 4? The 4.2% likelihood of a Tremendous Bowl LIX repeat is the best of any mixture of groups in our Tremendous Bowl matchup projections, barely besting the three.6% probabilities of Ravens-Eagles and Payments-Eagles matchups. Prime combos are listed under and rounded to the closest complete quantity.
When trying on the high 10 more than likely Tremendous Bowl combos, a number of completely different NFC groups seem on the listing. The Eagles and Lions present up probably the most, however the Commanders, Rams and 49ers every appeared in some of the probably combos. The AFC facet of the matchups was dominated by three groups — the Chiefs, Payments and Ravens.
Who’s the favourite within the loaded NFC North?
It is not a giant shock, however each group in NFC North ranks within the high half of the FPI scores. Detroit leads the best way at No. 4, adopted by the Packers (No. 8), Vikings (No. 15) and Bears (No. 16).
If there’s a curveball, it is that Minnesota ranks solely fifteenth after going 14-3 in 2024. However the Vikings relied on their protection — which ranked third in EPA per play — final season whereas rating a mediocre fifteenth on offense. And regardless that Brian Flores stays as defensive coordinator, defensive success is tough to copy.
Plus, second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy is an unknown after lacking his rookie season with a torn meniscus in his proper knee. Whereas he may possess extra upside than final yr’s starter, Sam Darnold, McCarthy’s draw back is nearly definitely decrease. Subsequently, the FPI provides Minnesota solely a 19% likelihood to win the division and a 43% likelihood to succeed in the playoffs.
In the meantime, the Bears moved in the other way. After Chicago completed twenty fourth in complete effectivity (EPA per play adjusted for rubbish time) final season, the FPI sees it as a minimally above-average group getting into 2025. The explanations for optimism are apparent. The Bears introduced in new coach Ben Johnson and added important expertise to their offensive line, and quarterback Caleb Williams now has a season of NFL expertise — even when that have was shaky.
So, who comes out forward? The Lions cleared the path with a 41% shot to win the division, with the Packers clocking in at 25%. However all of them have an opportunity, as even the Bears are at 15%.
Can the 49ers bounce again and win the NFC West?
FPI narrowly has the Rams as the very best group within the NFC West. However the favourite to win the division? That might (very narrowly) be the 49ers, with a 36% shot over the Rams’ 34%.
Why the discrepancy? Energy of schedule. No group enters 2025 with a better slate than the 49ers, who not solely get to face the NFC South and AFC South like the remainder of their division, but in addition the Giants, Browns and Bears because of ending final within the division in 2024. As compared, the Rams should face the Eagles, Ravens and Lions as a part of their first-place schedule.
That is sufficient to give San Francisco the sting over Los Angeles within the projections. It additionally signifies the FPI’s perception within the 49ers bouncing again after a brutally disappointing 6-11 marketing campaign. A giant a part of that religion is the betting market believing the 49ers have been hampered by accidents to key gamers final season — together with broad receiver Brandon Aiyuk, working again Christian McCaffrey and offensive lineman Trent Williams — and that they need to be harmful if wholesome.
Can any of the opposite AFC East groups problem the Payments?
They might, however no particular person group is especially probably to take action. Buffalo is the one AFC East group with a constructive FPI score and can be thought-about greater than a four-point favourite over every of the opposite three on a impartial discipline. And the Payments have a 65% likelihood to win their division — the very best of any group within the NFL by a hefty margin.
In fact, that leaves greater than a 1-in-3 likelihood that another person wins the AFC East. That is primarily as a result of uncertainty of soccer — the FPI is perhaps overrating the Payments or underrating another person, or one of many different groups lucks into the division regardless of not being pretty much as good as Buffalo total.
However that variance will at all times be there. Within the meantime, the Payments are once more in pretty much as good a place because it will get to win their division.
Will the Bengals return to the playoffs?
In all probability! Cincinnati’s 2024 marketing campaign disappointingly ended within the common season regardless of quarterback Joe Burrow rating third in QBR, the very best efficiency of his profession. However protection held the Bengals again, as they ranked twenty third in EPA allowed per play and notably struggled in opposition to the run, rating thirtieth in EPA in defending dashing performs.
However the lack of year-to-year continuity that occurs with good defenses additionally occurs with weaker items. Cincinnati changed defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo with Al Golden this offseason, which will increase the FPI’s uncertainty on that facet of the ball. In the end, the mannequin forecasts the Bengals to have a median protection, which strikes them to No. 7 within the total rankings.
The Ravens are by far the more than likely AFC North champion at 54%, and the Bengals are subsequent at 29%. However Cincinnati has a 60% likelihood to succeed in the playoffs. That makes it the fourth-most-likely playoff group within the AFC after lacking the postseason the previous two seasons.
Who ranks final?
The FPI’s Thirty second-ranked group will not be the Titans, Browns or Giants. It is the Saints, who discover themselves on the backside of the rankings after the sudden retirement of veteran quarterback Derek Carr. His retirement forces New Orleans to rely on both second-round rookie Tyler Shough or second-year participant Spencer Rattler at quarterback, barring one other transfer. All rookie quarterbacks are considered as a damaging within the FPI, however a second-rounder like Shough — who the mannequin presumes will begin — can be thought-about just a little worse than Cameron Ward, whom Tennessee chosen with the No. 1 decide.
The excellent news for the Saints is that the FPI does not assume a lot of the NFC South. Solely the Buccaneers have a constructive FPI score (they rank 14th). The Falcons and Panthers rank twenty sixth and twenty eighth, respectively. Partially as a result of the division is so weak, all 4 NFC South groups rank within the backside six in energy of schedule, which boosts every of their win projections. In consequence, the Saints have solely the fourth-best likelihood on the No. 1 decide within the 2026 draft regardless of their last-place total FPI rating.
Cleveland on the clock?
The Browns are the more than likely group to finish the season holding the No. 1 decide within the 2026 NFL draft, with a 13% shot. A lot of that is because of a quarterback room comprised of Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders and a harder-than-average schedule.
The Giants are rated barely above the Browns within the FPI and have the second-highest likelihood to earn the No. 1 decide at 12%, because of dealing with the league’s most troublesome schedule. The Titans, Saints and Jets comply with with 11%, 10% and 10% probabilities, respectively.
