Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of an important polling traits or information factors it’s essential to learn about. You’ll additionally discover data-based updates on previous Every day Kos reporting, plus a vibe examine on a development that’s driving politics.
How Trump beat Harris
A significant new report gives recent insights into the 2024 presidential citizens that enabled Donald Trump to defeat Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
After each even-year election, the Democratic information agency Catalist releases an in-depth evaluation of the citizens—integrating voter recordsdata, census information, polling, and modeling—to higher perceive who turned out, who modified their votes, and the place they shifted.
In its newest report, Catalist finds that Harris misplaced about 2 proportion factors of assist in contrast with Joe Biden within the 2020 election. And for the primary time within the agency’s information, lower than 50% of new voters—a bunch that sometimes is youthful and extra numerous—supported the Democratic nominee.
Right here’s how that performed out on the bottom.
The 2024 citizens was 3 factors much less white than it was in 2012, and voters ages 18 to 29 accounted for 15% of the 2024 citizens, 1 level lower than in 2020. Nevertheless, these youthful voters additionally didn’t help Democrats the best way they as soon as did, as a result of that coalition is now extra receptive to Republicans.
Males of shade, for instance, swung arduous towards Trump. Harris underperformed Biden by 6 factors amongst males general, however the decline was even sharper amongst Latino males (-12) and Black males (-8). Whereas girls supplied Harris with comparable margins in contrast with Biden, she misplaced floor with Asian girls (-3) and younger Latino voters (-12). In the meantime, Harris failed to enhance on Biden’s nationwide numbers with Black girls, a important Democratic bloc.
The 2024 citizens additionally had a higher share of ordinary voters than in both of the earlier two presidential elections. And whereas much less frequent voters comprised a smaller share of the citizens final yr, they broke for Trump, with Harris underperforming Biden amongst those that had voted in only one to a few of the previous 4 elections (2022, 2020, 2018, and 2016).
All of those points—and extra—are why we discover ourselves embroiled in Trump’s chaos but once more.
FAA chaos fuels public fears
Flying will get a nasty rap nowadays—and actually, it’s not arduous to see why.
Since January’s lethal crash close to Washington, D.C., the Trump administration has dodged accountability for aviation points, and whereas it might be making an attempt to employees up on air site visitors controllers, the Federal Aviation Administration can also be shedding employees.
The result’s a rising sense amongst voters that flying isn’t secure anymore. In response to the most recent Civiqs ballot for Every day Kos, 71% of registered voters imagine air journey is much less secure now than it was 5 years in the past. That features a putting 85% of Democrats and 55% of Republicans, suggesting this can be a uncommon space of bipartisan unease.
And whereas voters could really feel flying is riskier now, they’re not aligned on who in charge. When requested who’s extra chargeable for latest points concerning air site visitors management, 35% blame the previous Biden administration, whereas a barely bigger group (39%) blame the Trump administration. Unsurprisingly, there’s a partisan cut up: Democrats usually tend to level a finger at Trump, whereas Republicans pile on Biden.
However right here’s the factor: In most regards, flying is about as secure because it’s ever been, at the least up to now.
Regardless of high-profile crashes, the variety of month-to-month accidents within the U.S. amongst non-public and industrial airline flights is in step with latest norms, in keeping with information from the Nationwide Transportation Security Board. As an illustration, the information for final month is preliminary, but when it holds, it could be the second-safest April since 2000. And the most secure April got here in 2020, on the top of the COVID-19 pandemic, when there have been far fewer flights than ordinary.
What’s driving the misperception of the protection of air journey? Media protection is perhaps a giant a part of it. (We at Every day Kos have lined our fair proportion of flying fiascos.) And the sheer visibility of accidents makes them really feel extra widespread than they’re.
However that doesn’t let Trump off the hook. He’s completed little to instill public confidence in air journey, repeatedly refusing to take accountability for accidents. In the meantime, behind closed doorways, his shut ally Elon Musk reportedly pushed to fireplace air site visitors controllers amid what was already a scarcity—as a result of who wants oversight at 600 miles per hour?
The underside line: The Trump administration appears decided to flirt with catastrophe at a time when voters are already scared.
Shedding the coverage struggle
Trump’s second time period has been marked by a flurry of unpopular govt actions, however new information reveals simply how unpopular Trump’s agenda is.
YouGov lately launched public opinion information on 250 insurance policies proposed, endorsed, or carried out by the Trump administration. The info is pulled from polls performed since Trump took workplace, and so they didn’t point out him or different political figures by title. The survey questions had been stripped down and plain, with People requested “Would you assist or oppose the next?”
And the outcomes are brutal for Trump
In averages throughout practically each coverage space, Trump is underwater. Immigration (-6), the financial system (-8), training (-14), international coverage (-25), and well being care (-31)—all are internet adverse, which means extra individuals oppose them than assist them on common. Just one coverage space reveals Trump with extra common assist than opposition: LGBTQ+ rights. There, 48% of People have backed his strategy, whereas 38% have opposed it, on common.
Why the outlier? It’s seemingly as a result of Trump’s LGBTQ+ insurance policies are actually about attacking transgender individuals. As an illustration, quite than loudly going after same-sex marriage, which a powerful majority of People need to stay authorized, Trump is concentrating on a susceptible minority. And sadly, discomfort with transgender individuals stays widespread, even amongst Democrats. As grim as that’s, it explains why a number of voters assist Trump right here.
Breaking down YouGov’s information by political celebration additionally reveals the place Trump’s agenda performs—and the place it flops. Take his govt order barring colleges from utilizing range, fairness, and inclusion ideas to guage self-discipline: Republicans find it irresistible (internet +56 assist), however independents (-4) and Democrats (-44) reject it, in keeping with a ballot YouGov performed lately.
Or his federal hiring freeze: Democrats hate it (internet -44 assist), and even independents are cut up, with a -12 internet disapproval general for this bloc, however Republicans nonetheless extensively again it (+55).
That reveals how Trump’s insurance policies typically provoke main backlash, even after they ballot abovewater together with his base.
General, the numbers paint a transparent image: Most of Trump’s agenda simply isn’t well-liked.
Any updates?
-
Congressional Republicans are pushing deep cuts to Medicaid, the well being program that covers hundreds of thousands of low-income and disabled People, however People aren’t on board: Simply 12% assist reducing funding for or eliminating Medicaid, in keeping with a brand new YouGov ballot. Solely 17% again cuts to Supplemental Vitamin Help Program, the federal meals help program. A brand new Civiqs ballot for Every day Kos backs this up: 67% of registered voters oppose lowering funding for Medicaid, whereas solely 28% assist it.
-
Trump’s antics on social media are properly documented—and extensively reviled. In response to YouGov, 42% of People have a adverse view of content material posted to Trump’s and the White Home’s social media accounts, whereas solely 27% view it positively. Unsurprisingly, Republicans are essentially the most receptive. However when the White Home is out right here posting dystopian ASMR movies of immigrants getting deported, what sort of response do you anticipate?
Vibe examine
Democrats don’t win factors by enjoying good with Republicans. Simply ask California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Recently, Newsom has cozied as much as a number of the worst that the appropriate has to supply. He invited notorious bigot Charlie Kirk onto his podcast, the place the 2 agreed that Democrats went too far by being good to transgender athletes. He has additionally criticized gender-inclusive language, questioning why Democrats use the time period “Latinx.”
However chasing the center doesn’t assist. It simply makes you seem weak and inauthentic. And voters agree. In response to Civiqs, 54% of registered voters have an unfavorable view of Newsom, up from 51% proper earlier than the Kirk interview. And his “favorable” quantity plummeted from 32% to only 26%.
Democrats are essentially the most unforgiving. Solely 53% of them now view him favorably, down from 67% earlier than the Kirk interview.
Newsom could have his eyes on the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, but when that is his technique, he’s already off monitor. Whereas he’s busy chasing voters who won’t ever assist him, he’s dropping those who might need.
Andrew Mangan contributed analysis.
