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Mike Clay
It has been almost a month because the 2025 NFL draft, and we now have a significantly better grasp of what every crew will seem like this season. Meaning we are able to begin projecting expectations — and stats — for this yr’s batch of rookies.
Will anybody problem Cam Ward in passing yards? What number of dashing yards ought to we count on from early-round working backs similar to Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton? What are affordable outlooks for Travis Hunter on each offense and protection? And who will lead all defensive rookies in tackles and sacks?
Let’s take a look at the highest 5 projected leaders amongst rookies in quite a lot of statistical classes for the 2025 season. These crew and participant projections are my very own, compiled by means of a course of that’s each quantitative (league, crew, teaching and participant developments) and qualitative (projected depth chart placement and function). Missed time attributable to harm is factored in, with working backs typically maxing out at 14 video games and different positions at 15.
For full statistical outlooks, you may try my projections web page to type and filter by means of all the league. Each are up to date typically main as much as the beginning of the season.
Bounce to stat leaders:
Passing | Dashing | Receiving | TDs
Tackles | Sacks | Interceptions
Passing yards and touchdowns
1. Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans: 3,392 yards, 20 TDs (15 begins)
2. Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints: 3,020 yards, 13 TDs (13 begins)
3. Jaxson Dart, New York Giants: 1,968 yards, 10 TDs (9 begins)
4. Dillon Gabriel, Cleveland Browns: 1,205 yards, 5 TDs (5 begins)
5. Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Browns: 925 yards, 4 TDs (4 begins)
This isn’t one of many higher quarterback lessons in current reminiscence, with Ward as the one positive guess to start out Week 1. As a second-round choose, Shough appeared like a relative lengthy shot to pan out because the Saints’ starter when he was chosen, however Derek Carr’s retirement out of the blue positions the 25-year-old rookie as the favourite to steer the crew in begins.
Dart will start his profession behind Russell Wilson and maybe additionally Jameis Winston, however historical past suggests the No. 25 choose will make a 12 months 1 influence. From 2011 to 2024, 38 of 47 first-round QBs (81%) took over because the starter previous to Week 10. Twenty-three (49%) began in Week 1, together with Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix final season. Of the seven QBs picked within the 20-32 vary, six performed as rookies and 4 took over earlier than Week 5. Jordan Love was the one exception since he backed up Aaron Rodgers for 3 seasons.
There are 27 QBs who appeared in at the least 14 video games as a rookie since 2011. Excluding Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson — who have been used situationally as rushers — that group averaged 3,455 passing yards and 19 landing passes. In 15 begins, Ward is true on par with that historic common.
In Cleveland, Gabriel and Sanders will compete with Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett for the Week 1 beginning job. Each rookies determine to get some 2025 run due to the uncertainty surrounding Flacco and Pickett.
Receiving yards and touchdowns
1. Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers: 926 yards, 5 TDs
2. Matthew Golden, Inexperienced Bay Packers: 889 yards, 6 TDs
3. Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars: 884 yards, 5 TDs
4. Jack Bech, Las Vegas Raiders: 747 yards, 4 TDs
5. Jayden Higgins, Houston Texans: 723 yards, 4 TDs
Just like the QB class, there aren’t as many spectacular vast receivers within the 2025 group when in comparison with current years. However we nonetheless had 4 chosen within the first spherical and 10 extra on Day 2.
As top-10 picks, each Hunter (No. 2) and McMillan (No. 8) are notably above the remainder of the pack. Check out the manufacturing of the 14 vast receivers who have been chosen with a top-10 choose since 2011:
It is a small pattern, however 13 of the 17 wideouts produced at the least 865 yards. Tavon Austin, Corey Davis and Mike Williams (who all missed at the least three video games) are three of the exceptions, whereas Rome Odunze needed to work behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen final season. This supplies optimism that McMillan can attain 900 yards as a rookie, assuming quarterback Bryce Younger sustains his improved play from late final season. Hunter is in a extra distinctive state of affairs since he is prone to additionally play some protection, however he is nonetheless an excellent guess to be a featured offensive goal behind Brian Thomas Jr.
Golden (No. 23), Higgins (No. 34) and Bech (No. 58) all may simply begin in Week 1. However the outlook for receivers chosen after choose No. 20 by means of the third spherical is unspectacular. Since 2011, there are 148 receivers who match that invoice and performed at the least one snap as a rookie. Solely 24 of them (16.2%) reached 800 receiving yards, and 24 (16.2%) caught at the least seven touchdowns. That is one thing to bear in mind when contemplating the upside of all of the Rounds 1 and a pair of vast receivers.
First-round tight ends Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren are notable omissions from this listing, however there’s good motive. Solely seven tight ends in NFL historical past have produced greater than 750 receiving yards as a rookie.
Maybe the current success of Sam LaPorta (889 yards in 2023) and Brock Bowers (1,194 yards in 2024) means rookie tight ends might be extra impactful going ahead, however they is also outliers. Additionally, Loveland should compete for targets with Moore, Odunze, fellow rookie Luther Burden III and Cole Kmet. Warren might want to overcome the Colts’ probably low-volume passing recreation with both Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones beneath middle.
Dashing yards and touchdowns
1. Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders: 1,120 yards, 7 TDs
2. Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers: 961 yards, 9 TDs
3. Kaleb Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers: 947 yards, 7 TDs
4. Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns: 922 yards, 6 TDs
5. RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos: 841 yards, 5 TDs
The 2025 rookie RB class is among the greatest we have seen shortly; it consists of 25 draft picks, essentially the most for the place since 2019. On the very minimal, the six backs chosen within the first three rounds are prone to make a considerable influence this season.
That listing consists of No. 6 choose Jeanty, who will instantly slide in as Las Vegas’ function again. The previous 4 backs chosen within the prime seven picks (Saquon Barkley, Trent Richardson, Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette) all produced at the least 260 carries, 950 dashing yards and 9 dashing touchdowns as rookies. All 4 gamers did it in fewer than 17 video games, too.
Reaching 1,000 dashing yards as a rookie is not straightforward, however eight first-round RBs have had 225-plus carries of their first season since 2011 — Jeanty ought to eclipse that quantity even when he misses a number of video games. These eight backs all reached 950 dashing yards, averaging 1,230 yards and 10 dashing touchdowns.
1:05
Chargers GM to McAfee: Omarion Hampton was a participant we could not cross on
Chargers normal supervisor Joe Hortiz talks with Pat McAfee in regards to the resolution to draft Omarion Hampton within the first spherical.
Hampton’s outlook will not be as rosy as Jeanty’s, but it surely’s nonetheless fairly sturdy. Since 2011, eight RBs have been chosen within the again half of the primary spherical. 5 reached 800 dashing yards (Doug Martin, Najee Harris, Josh Jacobs, Sony Michel and Clyde Edwards-Helaire), whereas the remaining three have been restricted to backup/situational roles (Mark Ingram, Rashaad Penny and David Wilson). Hampton might want to fend off newly acquired Harris for work, however the No. 22 choose will seemingly function because the lead again in Jim Harbaugh’s run-friendly scheme.
Day 2 picks Johnson, Judkins, Harvey and TreVeyon Henderson also needs to play main roles proper out of the gate. Their manufacturing is a bit difficult to challenge, as we’ve not seen a ton of high-end success from second- and third-round backs. Since 2011, solely 13 of 74 RBs chosen in Rounds 2-3 have reached 800 dashing yards in 12 months 1. Fourteen of them reached six dashing touchdowns.
If this rookie working again class actually is particular, then we must always count on extra output from later picks. Johnson will seemingly be the first ball provider in Pittsburgh. Judkins and Harvey determine to steer their respective backfields. And Henderson will share the New England backfield with Rhamondre Stevenson.
Touchdowns from scrimmage
1. Omarion Hampton, RB, Los Angeles Chargers: 11
2. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders: 9
3. Kaleb Johnson, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: 8
T-4. RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos: 7
T-4. Quinshon Judkins, RB, Cleveland Browns: 7
T-4. TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots: 7
Touchdowns by rookies have been on the decline, with fewer than 140 in three of the previous 4 seasons. However the loaded RB class may get issues again on observe.
Over the previous decade, 23 rookies have reached 10 touchdowns. Sixteen of these gamers have been working backs, so it ought to be no shock to see six backs on this listing for 2025.
The aforementioned previous 4 backs chosen within the prime seven (Barkley, Richardson, Elliott and Fournette) all produced at the least 10 touchdowns as a rookie. So Jeanty reaching double-digit TDs can be on par with the historic manufacturing — however I do not count on him to succeed in that mark. The truth is, I’ve Hampton forward of Jeanty in complete touchdowns as a result of the Chargers’ offense will seemingly outscore the Raiders’ unit over the course of the season. Los Angeles will seemingly rating extra dashing touchdowns, too.
The dearth of vast receivers may appear complicated, however solely 15 rookie WRs reached eight TDs of their first season over the previous decade. Whereas Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy, Jalen McMillan and Marvin Harrison Jr. met that mark in 2024, solely 4 did from 2021 to 2023.
Tackles
1. Malaki Starks, S, Baltimore Ravens: 71
T-2. Nick Martin, LB, San Francisco 49ers: 58
T-2. Jahdae Barron, CB, Denver Broncos: 58
T-4. Andrew Mukuba, S, Philadelphia Eagles: 56
T-4. Jihaad Campbell, LB, Philadelphia Eagles: 56
Former Colts linebacker Shaquille Leonard‘s 163 tackles in 2018 have been essentially the most by a rookie over the previous decade, and he’s one in all solely three rookies (all picked within the first two rounds) to succeed in 125 throughout the span. Surprisingly, zero rookies have reached 100 tackles over the previous two seasons. Giants security Tyler Nubin (98) was the one participant to clear 90 in 2024.
The sort out projections are available in fairly low this season, however there’s some lingering uncertainty with sure rookies’ roles. After information about Ar’Darius Washington tearing an Achilles, Starks has a transparent path to an every-down function in Baltimore subsequent to Kyle Hamilton. That is why he is far forward of everybody else.
An off-ball linebacker normally leads the rookie class in tackles, however Campbell was the one one chosen within the first spherical. He has to battle Zack Baun — and Nakobe Dean, as soon as he is again from a knee harm — for snaps. As a substitute, Martin is our prime projected tackler on the place, because the third-rounder ought to carve out a task subsequent to Fred Warner in San Francisco. Second-rounder Demetrius Knight Jr. (Bengals) is a reputation to observe since he may have an even bigger function if Germaine Pratt is traded.
Barron, the No. 20 choose, will instantly battle Riley Moss to start out reverse Pat Surtain II in Denver. In Philadelphia, second-rounder Mukuba has an actual shot to switch C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who was traded to the Texans.
Sacks
T-1. Abdul Carter, Edge, New York Giants: 6.0
T-1. Mykel Williams, Edge, San Francisco 49ers: 6.0
T-1. Jalon Walker, Edge, Atlanta Falcons: 6.0
T-4. James Pearce Jr., Edge, Atlanta Falcons: 5.0
T-4. Shemar Stewart, Edge, Cincinnati Bengals: 5.0
Rookies are averaging a complete of 107.2 sacks per season over the previous decade, with a excessive of 130.0 in 2019 and low of 71.5 in 2020 throughout that span. First-year gamers totaled a weak 84.5 sacks in 2024.
The truth is, Rams defensive sort out Braden Fiske led all first-years with 8.5 sacks final season, however solely three others reached 5.0 (Miami’s Chop Robinson and Denver’s duo of Dondrea Tillman and Jonah Elliss). Micah Parsons‘ 13.0 sacks in 2021 have been essentially the most by a rookie over the previous decade, and solely 4 different freshmen reached double digits in that span. 4 of the 5 gamers to crack double-digit sacks have been first-rounders, with fourth-round choose Maxx Crosby being the exception.
That is notable because the solely 5 first-round edge rushers drafted in 2025 are listed above. None are anticipated to clear 6.5 sacks, but their projections would rank within the prime 20 amongst first-round picks over the previous decade.
Carter, the No. 3 choose, may finally emerge as one of many league’s greatest defenders, however he’ll seemingly start his profession in a rotation with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux. Williams is in a great spot as Nick Bosa‘s seemingly working mate in San Francisco, whereas Walker and Pierce will shortly slide right into a Falcons cross rush that completed with the second-fewest sacks in 2024 (31). And Stewart is about to switch the retired Sam Hubbard in Cincinnati.
2:08
Stephen A. unleashes on Abdul Carter for asking to put on LT’s No. 56
Stephen A. Smith will get fired up over Giants draft choose Abdul Carter asking to put on Lawrence Taylor’s retired No. 56.
Interceptions
T-1. Malaki Starks, S, Baltimore Ravens: 2
T-1. Jahdae Barron, CB, Denver Broncos: 2
T-3. Andrew Mukuba, S, Philadelphia Eagles: 1
T-3. Xavier Watts, S, Atlanta Falcons: 1
T-3. Maxwell Hairston, CB, Buffalo Payments: 1
T-3. Nick Emmanwori, S, Seattle Seahawks: 1
T-3. Darien Porter, CB, Las Vegas Raiders: 1
T-3. Will Johnson, CB, Arizona Cardinals: 1
T-3. Trey Amos, CB, Washington Commanders: 1
T-3. Travis Hunter, CB, Jacksonville Jaguars: 1
T-3. Upton Stout, CB, San Francisco 49ers: 1
T-3. Malachi Moore, S, New York Jets: 1
These all the time appear tremendous low, and that is not by chance. Rookies are averaging a complete of 42.2 interceptions per season over the previous decade. There have been 48 interceptions by first-year gamers in 2024, which tied for the second-highest mark in that span. However in 4 of the previous six seasons, rookies mixed for fewer than 40 INTs.
What’s extra stunning is that first-round rookies mixed for less than two interceptions final season — the bottom complete in effectively over a decade. Solely six rookies have reached 5 INTs up to now decade, and Marcus Peters (eight) and Riq Woolen (six) have been the one ones to eclipse that mark. Final season, Houston’s Calen Bullock led all rookies with 5 INTs, with six others reaching three.
