PORTLAND, USA, Might 21 (IPS) – Many international locations world wide have a fertility price under the substitute degree of two.1 births per girl, however one nation stands out with its exceptionally low fertility price.
So, which nation at the moment has the bottom fertility price on the planet? Is that nation
- Singapore
- South Korea
- Spain
- Sweden
- Switzerland?
Some extra demographic data could also be useful. This nation’s fertility price, which has been under the substitute degree for forty years, declined to roughly one-third the substitute degree in 2023, or 0.72 births per girl. The fertility price in 2023 was a fraction of ranges about fifty and seventy years in the past, which have been 3.8 and 6.2 births per girl, respectively (Determine 1).
The fertility price of this nation is predicted to stay lower than half the substitute degree for the following thirty years and keep properly under the substitute degree for the remainder of the twenty first century.
The nation has applied numerous measures to handle its low fertility price, together with childcare subsidies, tax reductions, childcare companies, money funds to folks, and prolonged maternity and paternity depart.
The nation’s president declared inhabitants decline a nationwide emergency and established a committee to arrange a plan to handle its low fertility price, inhabitants decline, and demographic ageing. A brand new Ministry of Inhabitants Technique Planning has additionally been established to handle these points.
The reply to the query of which nation at the moment has the bottom fertility price on the planet is the Republic of Korea, generally known as South Korea.
Due to its excessive fertility price within the latest previous, the inhabitants of South Korea grew comparatively quickly over the previous 75 years. From a inhabitants of practically 20 million in 1950, the inhabitants of South Korea reached roughly 36 million by 1975 and about 52 million in 2025.
The previous fast development of South Korea’s inhabitants is over and is being changed by a fast decline of its inhabitants.
By the tip of the twenty first century, the inhabitants of South Korea is predicted to be roughly the identical dimension because it was in 1950, round 22 million.
Inhabitants projections for South Korea persistently present a declining inhabitants over the approaching 75 years. The assorted variants of United Nations inhabitants projections, for instance, all present a quickly declining inhabitants for South Korea over the approaching many years.
The United Nations medium variant inhabitants projection expects South Korea’s present inhabitants of about 52 million to say no to roughly 22 million by the yr 2100.
The UN’s excessive and low variants additionally undertaking South Korea’s present inhabitants to be smaller in 2100 at roughly 32 and 14 million, respectively. The fixed variant, which assumes the nation’s fertility price will stay fixed at its present degree, tasks South Korea’s inhabitants to be 17 million by the century’s shut (Determine 2).
In addition to inhabitants decline, South Korea can be anticipated to expertise fast demographic ageing. South Korea’s younger inhabitants of the latest previous has been changed by an older inhabitants that’s anticipated to be even older within the coming years.
In 1950, the median age of South Korea’s inhabitants was about 18 years, and the proportion of the inhabitants 65 years or older was about 3%. The nation’s present median age is 46 years, and about 20% of the inhabitants is 65 years and older.
South Korea’s median age is predicted to proceed rising, reaching 57 years in 2050 and 60 years by the shut of the century. Additionally, the proportion of the inhabitants aged 65 years or older is projected to achieve 40 p.c in 2050 and 45 p.c by 2100 (Desk 1).
Why do the inhabitants projections present a declining inhabitants for South Korea over the approaching many years?
The reply to that query is comparatively easy. South Korea is just experiencing fewer births than deaths. In 2023, for instance, the numbers of births and deaths have been roughly 236 thousand and 346 thousand, respectively, yielding a pure change (births minus deaths) of -109 thousand.
The explanation births outnumber deaths in South Korea is that the nation’s fertility price is properly under the substitute degree.
And why is South Korea’s fertility price to date under the substitute degree?
The reply to that important query is extra speculative and sophisticated than explaining the nation’s demographic developments. The reply to that query wants some context and rationalization about South Korean {couples} having kids.
It is very important acknowledge world demographic developments. Fertility charges under the substitute degree have gotten the worldwide norm. In over half of all of the international locations on this planet, representing over two-thirds of the world’s inhabitants, the fertility price is under 2.1 births per girl.
Amongst these many international locations are some fifty populations, together with South Korea, which have a fertility price properly under the substitute degree. These international locations, which embrace China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, Spain and Sweden, have a fertility price under 1.5 births per girl (Determine 3).
Due to low fertility charges, international locations are having fewer births than deaths, and that distinction yields detrimental charges of inhabitants development. And due to sustained ranges of that detrimental inhabitants development, international locations are dealing with inhabitants decline and demographic ageing.
Varied important elements are believed to be behind the exceptionally low fertility price in South Korea. Amongst these elements are increased schooling, a declining marriage price, excessive charges of contraceptive use, way of life decisions, difficulties discovering an appropriate mate, private targets and critical issues concerning the future.
Additionally, extra elements throughout South Korean society which can be contributing to the nation’s low fertility price embrace a piece tradition with an exceptionally prolonged workweek, lengthy work hours, and stiff profession competitors, the excessive prices of dwelling, particularly for housing, schooling, and childcare, difficulties juggling parenthood with employment, gender inequality within the office, notably the gender pay hole, and the normal gender roles and inequalities in household and family issues.
Though South Korea’s fertility price might improve barely within the coming many years, it’s anticipated to stay considerably under the substitute degree of two.1 births per girl, leading to a seamless pattern of fewer births than deaths all through the twenty first century.
Many international locations, together with South Korea, are involved concerning the decline and ageing of their respective populations. The governments of these international locations try to extend their low fertility charges with pro-natalist insurance policies, incentives, and packages.
A remaining query issues whether or not these pronatalist insurance policies, incentives, and packages of governments will elevate right now’s low fertility charges again to the substitute degree.
Such insurance policies and packages might improve low fertility charges barely. Nonetheless, these will increase are usually short-term and comparatively small, with fertility charges remaining considerably under the substitute degree.
Primarily based on the experiences of nations over the previous a number of many years, as soon as a fertility price falls under the substitute degree, particularly to 1.5 births per girl or much less, the speed stays at low ranges. Most inhabitants projections for international locations with low fertility charges don’t anticipate a return to the substitute degree quickly.
In conclusion, most international locations with low fertility charges, together with South Korea, which at the moment has the world’s lowest fertility price, are anticipated to expertise inhabitants decline and demographic ageing all through the remaining many years of the twenty first century.
Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Inhabitants Division, and creator of many publications on inhabitants points, together with his latest guide, “Inhabitants Ranges, Tendencies, and Differentials”.
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