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Mike Clay
The 2025 NFL schedule has been launched, and we’re one step nearer to the beginning of the season.
How does this schedule influence the fantasy soccer panorama? Which gamers have it the best and hardest? Which 14 groups will make the NFL playoffs? How about an early take a look at the 2026 draft order?
Some housekeeping earlier than diving into this. First, whereas Week 18 is now not part of the schedule in newly created and public ESPN fantasy soccer leagues, it is nonetheless included in reactivated leagues, so it stays part of this research (it has minimal influence on the outcomes anyway). Subsequent, my power of schedule analysis is just not based mostly on remaining 2024 information, which is commonly what you will see in any such column. There was a ton of roster motion already this offseason, and injured gamers will return to motion, so all of that’s factored into every staff’s 2025 prospects. My analysis of every roster — not final yr’s manufacturing — is what I take advantage of to generate the best and hardest schedules.
The evaluation under is the next step in getting ready for the 2025 NFL and fantasy soccer seasons.
Arizona topping this class is fairly notable, because the Cardinals had the toughest schedule for each quarterbacks and tight ends final season and the toughest total fantasy schedule for many of 2024, previous to it lightening up down the stretch.
This season, Arizona is ready up with 9 matchups towards defenses I’ve ranked among the many worst 10 items within the league (49ers twice, Jaguars, Cowboys, Bengals, Panthers, Saints, Falcons, Titans). The one top-10 projected protection they may face is Houston.
Kyler Murray, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride are already distinguished draft-day targets, however all 4 get a lift due to the favorable schedule.
Others with favorable fantasy schedules: Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints.
The Bengals lead this class, and it is not even shut. Cincinnati faces just one protection projected to complete within the backside 10 of the league (Jaguars), and has six video games towards top-six defenses (Steelers twice, Vikings, Broncos, Lions, Patriots), in addition to two video games towards a very good Ravens protection.
The silver lining right here is that, utilizing EPA as a foundation, the Cincinnati offense had the league’s seventh-hardest slate final season, together with the toughest for huge receivers. That did not cease the likes of Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins from placing up elite numbers.
Others with troublesome fantasy schedules: Baltimore Ravens and Inexperienced Bay Packers.
Positional upgrades and downgrades
Although we do not need to get too caught up in power of schedule based mostly on the prior season’s outcomes, there’s some correlation between fantasy factors allowed by place and projected fantasy power of schedule (based mostly on 2025 rosters). The chart under reveals every offense’s power of schedule based mostly on what its 2025 opponents allowed final season. For instance, based mostly on 2024 outcomes, the Lions are set to face the third-easiest schedule for tight ends however the third hardest for quarterbacks. (Inexperienced = straightforward; purple = arduous.)
Listed below are some upgrades and downgrades based mostly solely on this chart, although you will discover some correlation with the earlier evaluation:
Upgrades
QB: C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray, Tyler Shough, Justin Fields
RB: Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara, Kenneth Walker III, James Conner, Christian McCaffrey
WR: Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Tetairoa McMillan
TE: Mark Andrews, Mason Taylor
Downgrades
QB: Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Jared Goff
RB: James Prepare dinner, Derrick Henry, RJ Harvey, Kaleb Johnson
WR: Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman
TE: Jake Ferguson, Theo Johnson, Tyler Higbee, Zach Ertz
Best total schedule: San Francisco 49ers (win whole: 10.5)
The 49ers are coming off a really disappointing 2024 season and are going through a ton of questions on the defensive aspect of the ball after substantial offseason departures. The excellent news is that the offense stays in first rate form and the staff will face the league’s best projected 2025 schedule. The 49ers will face not one of the league’s high seven Tremendous Bowl favorites (Ravens, Lions, Eagles, Payments, Chiefs, Bengals, Commanders), per ESPN BET odds, and have a considerable variety of engaging matchups due to the NFC West going through off with the underwhelming NFC South and AFC South. Their distinctive video games are vs. the Giants, Bears and Browns.
Remaining high 5 best schedules: Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.
Hardest total schedule: Detroit Lions (win whole: 10.5)
No shock right here, because the Lions are the defending champions of the super-tough NFC North. Along with the six video games towards the Vikings, Packers and improved Bears, the Lions will face off with the NFC East and AFC North. Detroit’s trio of distinctive video games is about has arduous as you may get: Buccaneers, Chiefs and Rams.
One optimistic for the Lions is that the remainder of the division (and a number of other 1-seed contenders) may even face a tricky slate.
Remaining high 5 hardest schedules: Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants and Inexperienced Bay Packers.
Projected AFC playoff seeds
All playoff odds offered by ESPN BET.
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1. Ravens (-500); 2. Payments (-750); 3. Chiefs (-450); 4. Texans (-155); 5. Broncos (-110); 6. Bengals (-185); 7. Patriots (+155)
The Ravens get a tiny nod over the Payments right here, nevertheless it’s a wide-open race between two stellar franchises that stay in terrific form on paper, particularly offensively. Baltimore has received double-digit video games six of the previous seven seasons (together with no less than 12 previously two years), whereas Buffalo has received no less than 11 video games six seasons in a row. Maybe the Chiefs are headed for some regression after so many shut wins had been adopted by a shellacking by the Eagles in February, nevertheless it’s arduous to doubt a franchise that has been to 5 of the previous six Tremendous Bowls, together with three in a row. Houston stays the favourite within the South with Stroud coming into Yr 3 and with one of many league’s most loaded defenses. Denver additionally has an excellent protection, and the offense might be even higher with new instruments added for second-year QB Bo Nix. The Bengals have missed the playoffs two years in a row regardless of having received nine-plus video games in 4 consecutive seasons, however with Burrow main an elite offense, they need to be capable to offset a shaky protection this time round. And do not sleep on a Patriots staff that is out of the blue stacked on protection and has a second-year QB (Drake Maye) and improved teaching (Mike Vrabel). The Steelers, Chargers, Dolphins and maybe Colts are very a lot within the dialog right here as properly.
Projected NFC playoff seeds
1. Lions (-250); 2. Eagles (-450); 3. Buccaneers (-165); 4. Rams (-170); 5. Packers (-125); 6. Commanders (-150); 7. Vikings (+130)
Accidents completely decimated the Lions’ protection in 2024, which led to a fast playoff exit after a dominant 15-2 common season. Wholesome and nonetheless stacked on paper coming into 2025, Detroit is primed to contend for the highest seed once more this season regardless of robust divisional opposition. The Tremendous Bowl champion Eagles took a success on protection throughout free company, however the offense stays elite. Tampa Bay has discovered its quarterback in Baker Mayfield and is eyeing its fifth straight division title and sixth straight journey to the postseason. The Rams are the very best they have been on paper in years, particularly on protection, and we all know they’re properly coached beneath Sean McVay. The Packers are strong on each side of the ball and the offense might be even higher with improved targets and a completely wholesome Jordan Love. Protection is the Commanders’ main purple flag, however Jayden Daniels seems to be the true deal and might carry this staff far. Whereas the Vikings stay elite on protection, a tricky schedule mixed with a brand new QB in J.J. McCarthy may result in a slight step again. Control the Cardinals (straightforward schedule and a stacked line of defense) as an NFC sleeper.
Projected 2026 NFL draft high 5
1. Browns; 2. Saints; 3. Raiders; 4. Titans; 5. Jets
The Browns’ protection took a large step backward final season and the offense is in flux with 4 quarterbacks (Kenny Pickett, Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel, Shedeur Sanders) competing for the beginning job. The staff’s subsequent franchise QB could come by way of the No. 1 total decide of the 2026 draft. Talking of groups with quarterback considerations, the Saints will probably flip to rookie Tyler Shough as their substitute for the retired Derek Carr. New coach Kellen Moore can have his work minimize out for him this season. It is arduous to think about a Pete Carroll staff ending this low within the standings, however even with the improve to Geno Smith at quarterback and the presence of Maxx Crosby on protection, this has the appears to be like of a roster that also has too many weak factors. The Titans’ protection is not very attractive and the offense can be a piece in progress as rookie QB Cam Ward will get acclimated to the professionals. The Jets fumbled away a stacked roster final season and, although the protection needs to be strong, the Justin Fields-led offense figures to be restricted.
