Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of crucial polling developments or knowledge factors you’ll want to learn about. You’ll additionally discover data-based updates on previous Each day Kos reporting, plus a vibe verify on a pattern that’s driving politics.
Whose economic system is it anyway?
With President Donald Trump’s second time period previous the 100-day mark, he’s scrambling to dodge blame for a inventory market that’s fallen since he took workplace. On April 30, he declared in a social media publish, “That is Biden’s Inventory Market, not Trump’s.”
He seems to be one of many few who believes that.
Extra Individuals blame Trump (46%) than former President Biden (27%) for the present state of the economic system, based on Gallup. One other 21% say accountability is shared. That is likely to be flattering for Trump if folks favored the place issues stand—however they don’t.
A CBS Information/YouGov ballot, which was performed shortly earlier than Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs took impact, discovered that 64% of Individuals suppose he’s not doing sufficient to decrease costs. And the share who consider his insurance policies will make them worse off financially jumped from 28% in January to 42% by late March. It’s protected to imagine sentiment has solely worsened since.
The most recent Civiqs knowledge backs that up: As of Friday, 32% of registered voters fee the economic system as “very unhealthy,” and one other 30% say it’s “pretty unhealthy.” Simply 30% name it “pretty good,” and solely 4% say it’s “excellent.”
Republicans are particularly conflicted. Within the Gallup ballot, 55% of Republicans stated Biden was answerable for the state of the economic system, whereas simply 21% blamed Trump. But many within the social gathering additionally oppose his tariffs—the very insurance policies dragging down the markets and driving up costs.
Republicans had been the one partisan group extra more likely to fault Biden for the economic system. Most Democrats (75%) and a plurality of independents (43%) pointed to Trump.
Trump’s spin doesn’t maintain up. Final 12 months, we had been advised the markets had been rising as a result of traders anticipated his return. Now we’re speculated to consider they’re falling as a result of traders all of a sudden remembered Biden?
Will voters finally blame Biden—or Democrats—for the state of the economic system? In all probability not. Belief in financial points is starting to tilt again towards Democrats. Trump would possibly wish to take notice, however he’s by no means been one for accountability. The reality is straightforward: The ache Individuals are feeling is the direct results of Trump’s insurance policies, particularly his tariffs. He desires credit score for the highs and not one of the blame for the lows. Voters might not let him off the hook.
The racial reckoning that wasn’t
In two weeks, on Might 25, it would have been 5 years since George Floyd was murdered by a white police officer in Minneapolis. The world watched in horror, and protests erupted. There have been pressing calls to rework policing, with some even calling to defund it.
On the time, Individuals had been paying consideration. In June 2020, greater than 80% had been carefully following the protests, on par with their concentrate on the COVID-19 pandemic, based on the Pew Analysis Heart. Assist for Black Lives Matter peaked that summer time, with 67% of adults backing the motion.
However practically all the things has modified.
At this time, simply 52% of Individuals help Black Lives Matter—a 15-percentage-point drop. Practically three-quarters of Individuals (72%) now say that the renewed concentrate on racial inequality after Floyd’s demise didn’t result in significant enhancements within the lives of Black folks.
Much more troubling is that Individuals have grown extra pessimistic about the way forward for racial equality. Amongst those that consider the nation hasn’t made ample progress, 49% now say it’s doable Black folks won’t ever have equal rights with white folks—up from 39% in 2020.
Pew’s new report doesn’t dive into why sentiment has shifted so drastically, however the burden of change has at all times fallen on communities of shade and Democrats. In eight years of Civiqs polling, a majority of white registered voters has by no means supported Black Lives Matter. Assist peaked at 44% proper after Floyd’s homicide however fell shortly after that. Now solely 34% of white voters help the motion, whereas 52% oppose it.
It’s not simply white Individuals or Republicans standing in the best way. Firms that when sprinted to undertake range, fairness, and inclusion initiatives are actually quietly ditching them, many doing so even earlier than Trump signed his government order dismantling DEI throughout the federal authorities. That claims all of it. For a lot of, the aim was by no means justice; it was about branding.
Is racial progress doable with a president who stokes division at each flip? In all probability not. 5 years after Floyd’s homicide, these numbers present simply how far the nation nonetheless has to go.
America was nice—simply not now
Was America ever really nice? That’s up for debate, however there are just a few intervals when Individuals suppose issues had been at the least higher than they’re now.
A newly launched YouGov survey requested Individuals to fee the standard of life throughout numerous factors in U.S. historical past. Unsurprisingly, respondents agree that life wasn’t precisely thriving throughout the Nice Melancholy (1929-1939) or the Civil Conflict (1861-65), a time outlined by nationwide and racial upheaval. Greater than 70% of Individuals say life within the U.S. was “poor” or “horrible” throughout every of these intervals.
So when was life in America nice?
The period related to former President Ronald Reagan (1980-91) tops the record, with 57% calling it “wonderful” or “good.” Shut behind are the Clinton years (1993-2001) at 55%, the post-WWII child growth (1946-1964) at 51%, and the turbulent counterculture period of 1964-74, which 46% of Individuals rating as “wonderful” or “good.”
And the current second? Simply 32% give it a constructive score, whereas 34% say it’s “poor” or “horrible” and one other 29% say it’s merely “truthful.”
Why the gloom? Whereas broader Trump-fueled discord in American politics absolutely performs a job, the ballot was additionally fielded shortly after Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs first went into impact and tanked the inventory market. And the identical survey additionally finds that 21% of Individuals say the present high quality of life feels most just like the Nice Melancholy, and 28% says it feels just like the Nice Recession. In different phrases, the survey probably caught Individuals at a very detrimental time.
So when Trump says he desires to make America nice “once more,” what period is he making an attempt to revive? Possibly the Reagan years, however the truth that he leaves it obscure suggests he’s interesting to Individuals’ hazy nostalgia for glory days that by no means actually existed.
Any updates?
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Regardless of Trump’s repeated threats in opposition to Harvard College, the general public sees the college in a constructive mild. A brand new Economist/YouGov ballot finds that 57% of Individuals view Harvard favorably, in contrast with simply 24% who view it unfavorably. It’s a reminder that Trump’s pettiness can’t undo the status of the nation’s wealthiest and most storied college. As for Trump’s vow to strip Harvard of its tax-exempt standing? Individuals are principally break up—41% in favor, 36% opposed.
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Analysts warn that Trump’s promised tax on foreign-made movies might shrink Hollywood’s output and drive up ticket costs, so it’s no shock that 55% of Individuals oppose a 100% tariff on films produced outdoors of the U.S., whereas simply 25% help it, based on a brand new YouGov ballot.
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Trump is making an attempt to dismantle AmeriCorps, a service program serving to communities nationwide. His administration has positioned roughly 85% of its employees on go away and canceled tons of of tens of millions of {dollars} in grants. However voters aren’t on board. A brand new Information for Progress ballot finds that after studying a short description of this system, 74% of probably voters help this system, with simply 14% opposing it. That help spans social gathering strains too: 79% of Democrats, 73% of independents and third-party voters, and even 70% of Republicans help it.
Vibe verify
Throughout NBC’s “Meet the Press” this previous Sunday, Trump downplayed his potential pursuit of an unconstitutional third time period—one thing nobody desires, not even Republicans. As an alternative, he floated two doable successors: Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State/appearing nationwide safety adviser/appearing U.S. archivist Marco Rubio.
“You have a look at Marco, you have a look at JD Vance, who’s unbelievable,” Trump stated. “You have a look at—I might title 10, 15, 20 folks proper now simply sitting right here. No, I believe we have now an amazing social gathering. And you understand what I can’t title? I can’t title one Democrat.”
However how do Vance’s numbers stack up subsequent to Trump’s? In line with Civiqs, Vance has a 41% favorable score and 55% unfavorable, which is worse than Trump’s favorability (43% favorable, 54% unfavorable).
Partisan strains are clear: Republican voters have warmed to Vance, along with his favorables rising from round 79% in July 2024 to 88% now. Democrats, unsurprisingly, detest him much more than earlier than—up from round 92% unfavorable final July to 95% right this moment.
Vance’s larger downside, although, mirrors Trump’s: independents. Civiqs finds that 56% of impartial voters view the vp unfavorably, in contrast with simply 38% who view him favorably. And that’s a slide from the place he began. On Jan. 20—the day of Trump’s inauguration—independents had been practically break up on Vance: 45% favorable, 46% unfavorable.
No matter goodwill he had seems lengthy gone.
It’s not laborious to see why. He’s hitched himself to an administration that’s inflicting financial chaos, gutting immigration protections, and lurching additional into authoritarianism. If voters see him as Trump with a youthful face, who can blame them?
