Tesla’s huge supply miss means the automaker has larger model points than anticipated within the US, and the Cybertruck is completely unsellable.
It’s worse than anybody anticipated.
Tesla delivered about 50,000 fewer autos in Q1 2025 in comparison with Q1 2024.
The outcomes had been additionally a lot decrease than expectations for the quarter. Analysts anticipated roughly steady deliveries in China and the US, whereas they noticed Tesla being down about 30,000 models in Europe.
With common registration information accessible in Europe and China, we have now fairly good visibility in these markets. Analysts had been proper, with Tesla barely up for the quarter in China and down about 30,000 models in Europe, with some nations having but to report.
Which means that the disappointing outcomes are coming from the US.
Tesla doubtless delivered 20,000 fewer models within the US this quarter than it did final 12 months. The automaker is blaming that on the Mannequin Y changeover, which is definitely partly true, however there’s extra occurring.
In Q1 2024, Tesla went by the Mannequin 3 changeover, and Tesla was capable of ship its new Mannequin Y on the identical day as a brand new order on the finish of March within the US. This might level to broader demand points for Tesla within the US.
Nevertheless, the automaker remains to be promoting solely the Lengthy Vary AWD Launch Version model of the brand new Mannequin Y within the US. The extra vital demand take a look at will likely be this quarter and Q3 when Tesla begins promoting the cheaper variations and exhausts its backlog of demand from the previous couple of months.
Tesla Cybertruck is lifeless weight
Tesla is tremendous opaque about its automobile deliveries. The automaker refuses to interrupt down deliveries per mannequin, making it tougher to trace the well being of every mannequin.
It bundles Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y collectively, and all different fashions in a single class:
| Manufacturing | Deliveries | Topic to working lease accounting | |
| Mannequin 3/Y | 345,454 | 323,800 | 4% |
| Different Fashions | 17,161 | 12,881 | 7% |
| Complete | 362,615 | 336,681 | 4% |
The “different fashions” class consists of Mannequin S, Mannequin X, Cybertruck, and Tesla Semi deliveries.
These outcomes with simply 12,881 “different mannequin” deliveries are significantly disappointing for Tesla.
For comparability, it’s down 24% in comparison with Q1 2024 when Tesla was nonetheless ramping up Cybertruck manufacturing. It’s additionally down 44% in comparison with This autumn 2024 when the class virtually solely consisted of Mannequin S and Mannequin X deliveries.
This might level to Tesla delivering between 5,000-8,000 Cybertrucks in Q1 2025 – relying on Mannequin S/X supply efficiency, that are additionally anticipated to be down. It will mark a 3rd quarter in a row of gross sales decline for the electrical pickup truck, just a bit over a 12 months into manufacturing.
Moreover, the decrease Cybertruck deliveries come as Tesla launched new incentives to promote the truck in 2025 and even gained entry to the $7,500 federal tax credit score for electrical autos.
Tesla is now having points promoting Cybertrucks at a fee of 40,000 per 12 months, when Tesla ready manufacturing for 250,000 models per 12 months, and CEO Elon Musk mentioned he might see Tesla reaching 500,000 models per 12 months.
We reported yesterday that Tesla is sitting on over $200 million of Cybertruck stock within the US.
Electrek’s Take
These are disastrous outcomes, however the market nonetheless doesn’t perceive them. You possibly can’t blame every little thing on the Mannequin Y changeover. Sure, it has an impression, however individuals overlook that across the similar time final 12 months, Tesla was additionally going by the Mannequin 3 changeover, and now a 12 months later, Mannequin 3 is ramped up and gross sales are down.
This could sound the alert.
Cybertruck is a whole dud when it comes to quantity, even with incentives.
Now, Tesla’s solely hope is within the non-Launch Version variations of the Mannequin Y, which I count on Tesla to launch within the subsequent few days.
They may assist, there’s little doubt, however I feel individuals want to think about extra severely the impression of Tesla’s model issues resulting from Elon Musk.
In China, Tesla already has these fashions accessible, and it has already needed to introduce 0% financing to promote them. That’s the equal of a $2,000 low cost.
It’s going to be attention-grabbing to see how lengthy after Tesla introduces these fashions within the US, it is going to additionally need to introduce 0% financing. It would give us a good suggestion of how common is the Mannequin Y refresh in Tesla’s dwelling market.
The automaker wants it to be common as a result of Europe is a dying marketplace for Tesla, and it’s being squeezed out of China by competitors.
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