After weeks of Republican hand-wringing over who may tackle Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia, the celebration simply misplaced its greatest shot.
On Monday, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp introduced that he received’t be working for the seat in 2026, dealing a serious blow to GOP operatives who have been hoping he may flip one of many most weak Democratic-held seats.
“I’ve determined that being on the poll subsequent 12 months shouldn’t be the proper determination for me and my household,” Kemp wrote on X.
He added that he spoke with President Donald Trump and Senate management and pledged to assist elect a “robust Republican nominee” who would “put hardworking Georgians first.”
“I’m assured we will probably be united in that necessary effort, and I stay up for electing the following technology of leaders up and down the poll right here within the Peach State who will preserve our state and nation headed in the proper route in 2026 and past,” Kemp wrote.
That’s a pleasant sentiment, however the loss is actual. And in Georgia, the response was swift.
“Not essentially the information we wished to listen to,” former Cobb County GOP Chair Jason Shepherd instructed Politico, summing up Republicans’ disappointment.
Kemp was by far the GOP’s strongest potential contender and the clearest menace to Ossoff, who has constructed a fundraising juggernaut. The Democratic incumbent raked in $11 million within the first quarter of 2025 alone, a staggering sum that his group says is the most important ever first-quarter haul for an incumbent senator throughout an off 12 months.
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However Kemp wouldn’t simply have needed to cope with Ossoff’s struggle chest. Operating statewide as a Republican in 2026 will probably be robust. Trump’s approval scores are dragging, and his coverage agenda is already shaping as much as be a political legal responsibility in key battlegrounds like Georgia. Kemp probably noticed that and properly bowed out, leaving another person to take the hit.
This isn’t only a loss; it’s a warning signal. Even in a cycle the place the Senate map ought to tilt towards the GOP, Georgia is much from a gimme. Regardless of each Senate Majority Chief John Thune and Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott personally making an attempt to recruit Kemp, he nonetheless turned it down.
Ossoff isn’t assured to win reelection, however the GOP now faces a well-known dilemma: discovering a candidate who can survive a MAGA-fueled main and nonetheless win a basic election.
Kemp’s determination may set off a crowded and messy main. Trump loyalist Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene hasn’t dominated out a run, although early polling means that she’d battle statewide. However that hasn’t stopped her from stoking hypothesis.
“I’ve a variety of choices open,” she instructed NBC Information final week, although she was obscure on whether or not she’s actively making calls or simply basking within the buzz.
Different names are floating round, together with Reps. Buddy Carter, Mike Collins, and Wealthy McCormick, however none of them have Kemp’s statewide profile and infrastructure.
Georgia is a high GOP goal in 2026, as certainly one of simply two Senate seats Democrats are defending in states that Trump received in 2024. However Kemp’s determination speaks volumes. He didn’t wish to run in a midterm 12 months the place Republicans must reply for Trump’s chaos—and doubtless kiss the ring.
That was by no means going to be a superb match. In 2024, Trump publicly known as Kemp “Little Brian Kemp” and slammed his spouse for not backing his reelection. Kemp fired again, telling Trump to “go away my household out of it.” Issues might have since thawed, however nobody expects Kemp to grovel for Trump’s approval.
Which signifies that Kemp’s out. Ossoff is loaded. And Republicans are again to sq. one.
