Tesla’s electrical automobile gross sales within the US are worse than what the media is reporting proper now. That’s partly as a result of Tesla is hiding its gross sales.
Right here’s extra correct knowledge.
At present, you would possibly see many headlines about Tesla’s US gross sales primarily based on Cox Automotive’s Q1 2025 US electrical automobile gross sales report.
The principle drawback with this report is that it’s a full estimate in the case of Tesla, the most important EV producer within the US.
Of all the foremost automakers, Tesla is the one one which doesn’t break down gross sales by area and even mannequin.
For comparability, right here’s a Ford US gross sales report vs a Tesla world gross sales report (its solely supply report):
As a result of Tesla is so opaque with its gross sales, analysts typically depend on reviews like Cox’s, that are additionally estimates.
The Cox report cited within the media at the moment claims that Tesla delivered 128,100 autos within the US in Q1 2025 – down 8.6% in comparison with Q1 2024.
That’s regardless of EV gross sales being up 10% general within the first quarter.
Right here’s the report:
| Model | Q1 2025 Gross sales | Q1 2024 Gross sales | YOY % Change |
| Acura | 4,813 | ||
| Audi | 5,905 | 5,714 | 3.3% |
| BMW | 13,538 | 10,712 | 26.4% |
| Cadillac | 7,972 | 5,800 | 37.4% |
| Chevrolet | 19,186 | 8,957 | 114.2% |
| Dodge | 1,947 | ||
| Ford | 22,550 | 20,223 | 11.5% |
| Genesis | 1,496 | 992 | 50.8% |
| GMC | 4,728 | 1,668 | 183.5% |
| Honda | 9,561 | ||
| Hyundai | 12,843 | 12,218 | 5.1% |
| Jaguar | 381 | 256 | 48.8% |
| Jeep | 2,595 | ||
| Kia | 8,656 | 11,401 | -24.1% |
| Lexus | 1,453 | 1,603 | -9.4% |
| Mercedes | 3,472 | 8,336 | -58.3% |
| Mini | 696 | 824 | -15.5% |
| Nissan | 6,471 | 5,284 | 22.5% |
| Porsche | 4,358 | 1,247 | 249.5% |
| Rivian | 8,553 | 13,588 | -37.1% |
| Subaru | 1,154 | 1,147 | 0.6% |
| Tesla | 128,100 | 140,187 | -8.6% |
| Toyota | 5,610 | 1,897 | 195.7% |
| Volvo | 2,718 | 996 | 172.9% |
| VW | 9,564 | 6,167 | 55.1% |
| Extra EV Fashions | 5,930 | 6,764 | -12.3% |
| Whole (Estimates) | 294,250 | 265,981 | 10.6% |
Cox’s estimate appears fairly excessive. One of the best ways to determine Tesla deliveries within the US is to take deliveries primarily based on registration knowledge in all different markets the place Tesla sells autos on the earth, that are fairly correct, and subtract that quantity from Tesla’s reported world deliveries.
For the primary quarter, Tesla reported 336,681 deliveries globally, and Tesla registrations in all markets besides the US and Canada totaled 212,024 autos (through TroyTeslike).
This may imply Tesla delivered about 124,657 autos within the US and Canada in Q1 2025.
That’s already about 3,500 fewer deliveries than Cox’s estimate, however it contains Canadian deliveries, that are additionally onerous to estimate within the first quarter. It’s secure to imagine that they’re at about 5,000 items.
Which means Tesla is down nearer to fifteen% than 8% within the US in Q1 2025.
Electrek’s Take
Sure, the Mannequin Y changeover definitely affected Tesla’s efficiency within the US, however it’s clearly not the one issue at play.
Tesla ended the quarter with report stock not seen in years. The automaker has no backlog of orders for the brand new Mannequin Y. You will get one at the moment in lots of areas of the US.
I believe there are good causes to fret about Tesla’s demand within the US. The principle cause is the model injury attributable to Elon Musk, which principally occurred within the second half of the primary quarter.
The shortage of backlogs for brand spanking new Mannequin Y orders is regarding.
I imagine deliveries can be up from Q1 this quarter, however they are going to be down from Q2 2024, and it’s extra possible that Tesla’s deliveries can be down for the complete 12 months 2025 regardless of most analysts nonetheless believing Tesla will nonetheless develop this 12 months.
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